Rooster Odds: 2026 forecast built on real polls, not hopes. America First, Rust Belt raised. First to news, first in the replies. Polls don't vote, people do.
Rust Belt, USA
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Rooster Odds, updated Oct. 30 evening, 4 days out.
Senate: R 41.3%, D 55.2%, independent decides 3.5%.
House: R 5.2%, D 94.7%, Kiley decides 0.1%.
Ohio Senate and Ohio's 9th are toss-ups: EVEN.
Texas Senate: R 45.0%, D 55.0%.
Polls don't vote, people do.
Sherrod Brown once called climate change one of the defining moral issues of our time. Now he wants his Ohio seat back and climate isn't even on his campaign website.
Among Harvard professors registered with a party, 99% are Democrats. Any union hall in Ohio has more political diversity than that.
#NEW WISCONSIN absentee ballots
Returned: 765,200 [+71.9K since yesterday]
In-person: 454,384 [+60.8K]
Requested: 848,517
Data: WI Elections Commission
DC and Virginia are suing to block Trump's arch. Of all the things to take to court the weekend before an election, they picked a monument.
#BREAKING: DC, Virginia sue to block Trump’s triumphal arch
thehill.com/homenews/adminis…
#NEW PENNSYLVANIA mail ballots returned
🔵 Dem: 675,923 [+20.3K]
🔴 GOP: 264,586 [+9.0K]
⚪ Other: 104,640 [+4.8K]
1,045,149 of 1,388,414 requested
[Brackets: change since Friday's update]
GOP share of new returns: 26%, a bit above its 25% share overall.
Data: PA Dept. of State
A new study found 87% of late-night TV jokes about this year's Senate candidates were aimed at Republicans. Nobody who watches those shows is surprised, but now there's a number on it.
Lefty late-night TV hosts targeted Republicans in 87% of jokes about Senate candidates: study trib.al/ezL2mzh
Three days before Election Day, Fox reports El-Sayed's campaign told Haley Stevens to stay away from his events. Last week she wouldn't even say on CNN whether she supports him. Michigan Democrats don't look very united right now.
Michigan Democrats are facing a public split just days before Election Day.
Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed's campaign tells former primary rival Rep. Haley Stevens to stay away from his campaign events, according to a source familiar with the discussions.
Stevens has criticized El-Sayed's positions on Israel, and her fiancé has publicly endorsed his Republican opponent, Mike Rogers.
Now, a planned Sunday appearance with Rep. Jim Clyburn meant to showcase party unity is in question.
The latest development comes as the Senate race enters its final stretch. See what's behind the dispute: foxnews.com/live-news/3-days…
Stuff that slid by today:
Chicago lab owner admits billing Medicare $227M for COVID tests nobody ordered.
Minnesota man gets 6.5 years for a $200K cash bribe to a Feeding Our Future juror.
County worker and husband admit taking 14 cars from dead Medicaid patients' estates.
The administration just signed off on a $2.1 billion Patriot missile sale to Ukraine. Air defense is the one thing Kyiv keeps saying it can't get enough of.
US approves $2.1 billion Patriot missile sale to Ukraine reut.rs/4A7j0kL
Two of Biden's former Treasury officials just mapped out $15 trillion in new taxes, including a carbon tax and a 5% tax on sports bets. Their own paper admits those hit people at the bottom hardest.
State is pulling non-emergency staff out of Saudi Arabia over security risks. They don't do that over nothing. Worth keeping an eye on this weekend.
US orders non-emergency staff to leave Saudi Arabia over security risks reut.rs/4imMpQw
The DSA platform calls for replacing the Constitution with a new one. Come January, its members in Congress will raise their right hand and swear to support and defend it.
#NEW MICHIGAN Governor poll
🔵 Benson: 50%
🔴 James: 40%
Undecided: 7%
Rasmussen | 10/28-29 | LVs
#NEW MICHIGAN Senate poll
🔵 El-Sayed: 49% [+3]
🔴 Rogers: 44% [=]
Rasmussen | 10/28-29 | LVs
[Brackets: change since Rasmussen's 10/12-14 poll]
#NEW OHIO early vote
Voted through Thursday: 1,486,890
Entire 2022 midterm early vote: 1,473,983
Ohio has already passed its 2022 early vote total, and in-person early voting is still open through Sunday.
Data: @AndrewJTobias
Sutter Health just gave up on a $1 billion, 325-bed hospital in the Bay Area because California's environmental law left it open to years of lawsuits. Ohio would never let paperwork stop a hospital.
Hillary says a Democratic Congress will investigate Trump, his family, and his "supporters and allies." Ohio gave him 55% in 2024, so I guess that's most of us.
#NEW OHIO early vote
Ballots cast: 1,389,961 [+199.5K since Tuesday]
🗳️ In person: 839,413
📬 Mail returned: 550,548
Pace vs. same point in 2022: +26%
Early in-person voting runs through Sunday.
Data: Ohio SOS via civicAPI
Storms and heavy rain are in the forecast for Election Day across Texas, Kansas and Iowa, per NBC. Texas, today is the last day of early voting, so if you haven't voted yet, don't leave it to a wet Tuesday.
Stormy, wet weather is expected to hammer the central U.S. on Election Day, with the spiciest forecasts for states with some of the hottest races — including Texas, Kansas and Iowa. nbcnews.com/weather/storms/e…
