Thematic swing trader. Historical stock performance analysis. Not financial advice.
Pittsburgh, PA
Joined March 2024
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📊WEEKLY MAG7 TRACKER
Last week's two biggest losers went opposite ways. Tesla bounced from −10.4% to the top of the board. Nvidia fell another 12.8%.
Weekly Performance:
$TSLA +8.9%
➡️ Five straight green days through Thursday after Bloomberg reported that Tesla–SpaceX merger talks are progressing, with a deal possible as soon as December. Finland also approved its assisted driving. It slipped 1.8% Friday but still won the week. I'm watching whether the merger story turns into actual terms.
$META +5.2%
➡️ Jumped 5.1% Monday after J.P. Morgan added it to its focus list, then added 2.9% Friday. Infrastructure chief Santosh Janardhan is leaving early next year, and ex-AWS exec Dave Brown takes over the data center buildout. With capex this big, who runs it matters.
$AAPL +4.1%
➡️ First close above $350 on Monday and a record $356.27 close Friday, back above a $5T market cap. Apple Intelligence was also registered for iPads and Macs in China. Quiet, steady strength while chips got hammered.
$GOOGL +3.86%
➡️ Launched Gemini 4 Hydrogen and opened orders for Gemini AI glasses starting at $395. Anthropic's amended IPO filing lists Google for about $10B of its private placement. Lots of spending, but the market liked it this week.
$AMZN +2.84%
➡️ A cooler week after last week's +7.88%. The Anthropic IPO puts a big number on Amazon's stake, and AWS opened its Chile region to select customers. The next Leo satellite launch got pushed to Saturday after a power interruption.
$MSFT −1.27%
➡️ Up 2.75% Monday, then a global Microsoft 365 outage starting Thursday knocked out Outlook, Teams and Copilot for more than 15 hours. Not a great look for a company selling Copilot to enterprises.
$NVDA −12.75%
➡️ Jensen Huang resigned as CEO Thursday after admitting an affair, and CFO Colette Kress is interim CEO. HSBC downgraded it to Hold on Friday. That's two straight red weeks (−8.80% last week). Earnings are Tuesday after the close, the first report without Huang.
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🍺 $SAM has been brutally beaten down the past 5 years.
There are still two weeks remaining in the November, but as of day, it's above the 21 EMA. If it closes the month above the 21 EMA, that would be the first time since 2021.
That will be a meaningful behavior change and could set-up an opportunity for a trade.
Cheers🍻
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Timely add $NVO
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
💊There's a disconnect for $NVO between the share price performance, and the sales & EPS.
$NVO
P/S: 2.6
P/E: 10.2
$LLY
P/S: 15.6
P/E: 47
I understand the valuations cannot be looked at directly given the portfolios, but the valuation for $NVO seems too low.
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Weekly Portfolio Update:
💊 $GDRX (7% weighting) - Expecting growth from the growing cash payment market for GLP-1s. Added 0.5% into January 2028 leaps.
💊 $MOH (3% weighting) - Policy revision exposure
*NEW 💊 $NVO (3% weighting) - Stock and options. I think this is too cheap and a valuation disconnect.
*NEW 🧶 $ETSY (2% weighting) - I want to add more, but waiting for the correct entry.
🚚 $AMZN (3% weighting) - Legacy position, deep cost basis that I don't trade
📈 $HOOD (3% weighting) - Legacy position, deep cost basis that I don't trade
💻 $BUG (0.5% weighting) - Jan 15 2027 $48 calls. Risk is premium paid.
💰Cash (78% weighting)
☀️ $FSLR (CUT) - Cut this position for a small loss.
This market environment is not the ideal environment for my trading style. All positions are on a short leash and I have found myself making more tactical trades.
Going forward I will start to publish my portfolio on a consistent basis.
I have not shared this previously, but I wanted to share an update on my current holdings:
🚚 $AMZN (3% weighting) - Legacy position, deep cost basis that I don't trade
📈 $HOOD (3% weighting) - Legacy position, deep cost basis that I don't trade
☀️ $FSLR (4% weighting) - Domestic US solar exposure. This was opened today.
💊 $GDRX (6% weighting) - Expecting growth from the growing cash payment market for GLP-1s
💊 $MOH (3% weighting) - Medicaid exposure going into the elections
💻 $BUG (0.5% weighting) - Jan 15 2027 $48 calls. Risk is premium paid.
💰 Cash (79% weighting)
Depending how the rest of this week goes after Midterms, I will either raise more cash, or deploy capital. I have some names I am watching and interested in. Time will tell....
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$WMT Walmart reports earnings in 1 week from today.
The stock has not performed particularly well the month after their past 3 prints.
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Jensen might be out of $NVDA, but this story is long from over....
Companies tied to Alice Huang invested in DeepSeek's $15.8B round to help supply it with banned Nvidia Blackwell chips, The Information reports. Litong, linked to Huang, reportedly imported 240,000 Nvidia chips worth at least $7.5B into China since 2023 despite export controls.
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In April, I added $LLY calls to my watch list after BS reporting on the launch of Foundayo. I was distracted that day and ever bought those options.
They are now +566% and expire next week.
Should’ve, would’ve, could’ve….
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So far in 2026 we have seen:
• Feb: Claude Cowork plugins kick off the "SaaSpocalypse." ~$2T wiped from software by April
• Feb: SpaceX swallows xAI at $1.25T
• Feb: Citrini's "2028 Global Intelligence Crisis" report tanks software. $IBM has its worst day in 25 yrs. Citadel publishes a rebuttal
• Mar: Iran war breaks out. Stocks are back at records by April anyway
• Apr: Weekly AI token usage up ~250% since January
• Apr: DeepSeek V4 drops, open source, built with Huawei, up to 10x cheaper than OpenAI. By spring, enterprises are shifting to cheap Chinese open models
• May: $SNDK up 464% YTD. $34 → $1,500
• Jun: Chips have their worst day in 6+ years (SOX -10%)
• Jun: Anthropic launches Fable 5 and Mythos 5. Three days later, the Commerce Dept forces both offline. Back by July 1
• Jun: SpaceX IPOs at ~$2.1T
• Jul: SK Hynix lists in NY, Kospi crashes ~38% from its peak, chips lose $1T+
• Jul: Leopold's Situational Awareness goes from +439% to -67% in a month, sells its book to Citadel… then gets married
• Sep: An Anthropic researcher quits warning AI could wipe out humanity within a decade (10%+ odds). Senior Anthropic staff publicly agree, and Dario and Altman call for the industry to slow down
• Sep: SemiAnalysis buys Citrini
• Sep: $META launches Muse, stock +36% in a month
• Oct: Iran strike reports + Meta's $825B AI spend disclosure hit tech
• Nov: Jensen admits an affair with an alleged Chinese spy, NYT reports a second with an Nvidia exec, and he resigns. • -10% premarket
Still a month left in 2026...
🤖 Made with AI
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Looks like Jensen will not be speaking on the earnings call…
So is Jensen speaking on the $NVDA earnings call next week?
How do you think the analyst question portion will go?
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So is Jensen speaking on the $NVDA earnings call next week?
How do you think the analyst question portion will go?
I don’t understand the Tim Cook scenario. Yes he ran a massive company, but $AAPL has been the anti AI trade option so why should he become the face of the entire AI trade
Jensen replacement options if we come to it.
David Sacks - He's done incredible work for AI at the White House, but might be a bit more than he can chew.
Tim Cook - Milk NVDA for what they have with a lower chance of further innovation
Lisa Su - Very good fit, I’d be sad as an AMD shareholder
Jeff Bezos - Probably too focused on rockets, but has built a lot of hard things in the real world (not just software)
Bill Gates - I hope not, has some terrible AI takes.
Peter Thiel - Not the best public perception, i'm a fan but a lot of people are not.
who have i missed?
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It's important to not have FOMO in these market conditions.
In the past 10 trading sessions, including today, the $SPY has been either up or down more than 1% half of those days. That's not normal market behavior.
Don't chase today.
Many AI names have A LOT of technical structure work to do.
It's great to see the bounce in most names today, but tread lightly.
$SMMT cutting ties with the CCO before an FDA decision 🤔
On the other end, they posted Commercial Excellence positions today which is responsible for enabling sales teams...
Summit Therapeutics quietly parted ways with its chief commercial officer and other commercial leaders responsible for building the launch plan of ivonescimab. fiercepharma.com/pharma/summ…
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GoodRx $GDRX
Here is a high level summary of where they stand:
➡️Their prescription revenue business declined which is why the stock is down. Management explained that this is due to stores like Rite Aid closing and expect this to turn around.
➡️GLP-1s are not a tailwind, not a head wind. That market is only going to continue to grow. I expect them to have another great quarter in this aspect which is the real thesis here, but need the prescription business to rebound.
➡️TrumpRx runs on the same infrastructure they leverage. This is a validation.
The stock currently trades at 1.5 P/S
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The best performing industries in 2026 YTD:
Top 10 industries of 2026 YTD 🏆
$XOP Oil & Gas E&P +39%
$XHS Health Care Services +35%
$SMH Semiconductors +29%
$CIBR Cybersecurity +28%
$OIH Oil Services +25%
Which industry do you think will be the best performing at the end of the year?
Here’s how the top 2025 industries are performing so far in 2026.
2026 YTD is the hangover:
$SIL Silver miners +166% → −5%
$REMX Rare earths +93% → −31%
$URA Uranium +67% → −24%
$NLR Nuclear +57% → −29%
Only one repeat winner: $SMH Semis +49% → +29% 📈
$SPY S&P 500: +18% → +9%
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