Ryan

🧵 Keeneland Fall Meet Track Profile 2026 Three biases stand out headed into Breeders' Cup weekend: • Posts 1-3 won 47% of dirt routes • 41% of dirt sprints were won by posts 7+ • Posts 4-6 won 43% of turf routes See what else to note in Lexington this Friday & Saturday ⬇️

Churchill Downs Friday Selections

Churchill Downs Thursday Selections

Turf Routes Early runners went 4-for-6 last week & are now winning 56% of races. In September, closers won 50% of the turf routes and early runners hit at 20%, so this is a big shift, but it is still just nine races. Posts 4-6 won three races last week.

Turf Sprints Four races last week, and posts 4-6 won three of them. Closers had two wins. Note that posts 7+ went 4-for-6 in the first four days and 0-for-4 this past week.

Dirt Routes Stalkers went 6-for-11 last week, with closers adding three wins. Early runners should be watched closely this week since they have the fewest amount of wins of the running styles. Posts 1-3 won 5 of 11 races last week and are hitting at a 50% clip.

Dirt Mile Posts 4-6 won 3 of 5 races last week and are now 7-for-9 overall. Early runners lead the meet at 56%, on the strength of their 4-for-4 start in week one. However, stalkers won three races last week.

Dirt Sprints Stalkers took 12 of the 23 races last week and are now sitting at 43%. The closers followed up their 8-for-17 opening week by winning just 3 of 23 this past week. Posts 1-3 had a solid week two, winning nine races, and are hitting at 45% after two weeks.

🧵 Churchill Downs Track Profile November Meet Week Two Closers won 8 of 17 dirt sprints in the first four days. This week, they won 3 of 23. Stalkers took over. You'll want to see how these races shifted and what to be ready for headed into week three in Louisville.

Churchill Downs Saturday Selections River City & Bet on Sunshine Stakes

Churchill Downs Friday Selections

Not letting the closing running style of Nakatomi be a factor when sitting at 30-1. There’s enough early pace to set up a rally off the leaders like in his last start. Closers have done just fine, winning 3 of the 7 dirt sprints Breeders Cup weekend here at Keeneland.

With how hot this pace looks to be in the Turf Sprint, if Cy Fair can settle behind those front runners, she shouldn’t have an excuse pressing into them. Upgrading coming out of that Kentucky Downs race where she was in post 1, not an easy ask.

Keeneland Breeders' Cup Championship Saturday Selections #BC26

A few things stood out from Breeders Cup Friday: • Posts 1-3 won 2 of 3 dirt routes, that’s in line with the Fall Meet where they won 45% of races. • Stalkers were 2-for-3 in turf routes, they had the most wins by running style in the Fall Meet.

Keeneland Breeders Cup Friday Selections Future Stars Friday

Want to know exactly how Keeneland played day by day before the Breeders’ Cup? The daily track profiles, betting analysis, & week-by-week breakdown with daily bias highlights are waiting for you ⬇️ bettingtheodds.substack.com/…

Turf Routes Posts 4-6 finished as the top post group at 43% after starting the meet 1-for-6. In week four, they were 3-for-6. Stalkers finished first by running style at 39%, with early runners and closers tied at 30%.

Turf Sprints Only nine turf sprints were run all meet. Closers won six of them, a 67% hit rate. Posts 1-3 and 4-6 each won four races. They each had one win in the closing week. Nine races is a small sample. Take this information with that in mind.