SAMRI

Iraqi crude oil has begun moving through #Syria en route to the European market. The Director of Customs stated that ~1,600 trucks carrying Iraqi crude oil reached Baniyas during the first week of shipments, which began in late October. Until now, most of the Iraqi oil transiting Syrian territory to bypass the Strait of Hormuz consisted of fuel oil (some of which was also exported to Europe). But for Iraqi crude oil, this is a first. Some 1,000 trucks carrying Iraqi fuel oil - approx. 220,000 barrels - currently transit Syria every day through 2 border crossings. Even if these quantities remain modest compared to Iraq's oil potential, this provided Damascus with some much welcome revenue from transit fees, while also boosting local economic activity, with cafes & shops benefiting from the never ending flow of trucks along their routes. The 1,600 trucks carrying crude oil & that already reached Baniyas represent 228 per day (average). This figure is expected to at least quadruple, eventually reaching the same level as the existing fuel oil traffic - this will double the flow of Iraqi oil tankers currently transiting Syria. english.alarabiya.net/News/m… This fits the broader trend of Syria emerging as an energy corridor, taking advantage of the strategic position of Baniyas terminal on the Coast: Iraqi fuel oil exports heading West, gasoline imports travelling in the opposite direction, and now a 3rd component is being added: crude oil.

The most obvious & highly valued area of Syrian expertise that could support Saudi Arabia in the ongoing conflict in Yemen is undoubtedly drone warfare. Former Rebels, now integrated into the Syrian military & potentially serving in an advisory role, have extensive experience in this field, incl. use of FPV drones.

Damascus has finally issued a - carefully worded - statement on growing reports of Syrian military support for Saudi Arabia, while leaving the door open to joining the Mecca Pact. The only clear denial concerns sending personnel to Yemen. But even sending advisers to Saudi Arabia would mark a significant shift from Sharaa's earlier non-alignment stance. The move could however be seen as reciprocity toward Riyadh - a major backer of Syria's recovery & key player in the US sanctions relief in 2025. The $403 million in loans announced days ago further underline Riyadh's role as an indispensable reconstruction partner for Damascus - while Saudi Arabia is under real security pressure of its own. In return, Syria may be offering something Saudi Arabia needs: experienced advisers - and this might well be where things are heading.

When falling on the Misery Index is a good sign. One year after Assad's fall, #Syria is doing better than most of its neighbors - and better than Brazil, Egypt & Tunisia. It jumped from 3rd most "miserable" (2024) to 33rd (2025) on Hanke's index. Biggest reason: inflation dropped hard.