I’m not always right. Even if I was right about gold. And HC distrib. And 90 - $CELH so far. Follow a pumper instead. Update: flipped long CELH as of 2024-11-12
RT can just b food for thought
Joined May 2020
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I think that’s it for a while. I’m going private again. I’ve given away a lot of alpha these past few years, and my content is too short-form for a substack.
I’m probably shadow banned on Twitter because I was always skeptical of big accounts and of pumpers, so they’d likely hide my replies or mute me or block me (about that: honestly, looking at the engagement requirements and comparing it to my stats on tweets detailing highly profitable trades, I get the sense that it must require so much engagement bait for people to be big on this platform that these accounts can’t possibly provide value on a large majority of their tweets).
I can lengthen my writing to justify the cost of a subscription in people’s minds, but it’s not worth it for me, as it dilutes my idea, and you wouldn’t be getting genuine content. You’d be getting the same AI-elongated content that you get everywhere else since mid-2024, when I first saw the semiconductor + gamified finance trade starting (April 2024, I threw ~$360 into $HOOD, which then grew to 2k and I trimmed half (1/12).*)
* With some of that money, I bought a few shares of CLS (1/16) and quickly sold those (4/24) for +337 STCG. Lest you think I’m an oracle, I also bought back some HOOD at 103 and 83, raising my cost basis to 25, instead of flipping those same shares of CLS for another 300 over the next week.
Interesting. Too bad most people would ignore it if it were framed more honestly. This sales pitch of “$100k above closing,” where the seller is essentially saving the buyer $90k+ by seller financing, lands better
Yes. At the current ~7.11% 30-year fixed rate (Freddie Mac), a standard 20% down loan of $660k on the $825k house has monthly payments of ~$4,440. Interest paid in the first 5 years totals ~$228k. Discounting those payments at the same rate still leaves an NPV of ~$192k—well above $100k.
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@grok please verify if the seller saves on taxes in this arrangements since he doesn’t receive the payment all at once. If so, how much does the seller end up saving? What about if the buyer prepays before the balloon starts to blow up? And what if there’s a penalty (what should be the prepayment penalty)
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I told you what the reason is. There’s a real reason behind the drop in market cap. It’s to make way for a stronger second place contestant.
The first trillion is always the hardest.
1. Huang is off the board and out of the CEO role, there's a new independent chair and the search covers internal and external candidates. That's the clean break you're arguing for.
2. This is a panic looking for a story. No evidence of accounting fraud. Is there potential for it? Sure, there is in every company and they should definitely look. But you don't make the CFO interim CEO if you suspect the books.
3. D&O shareholder suits are 99% certain. Will take years and will settle for trivial amounts. Noise.
4. Biggest revenue risk is tighter export controls to SE Asian buyers. But there's plenty of demand to make up for that.
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The affair isn’t affecting the price. It’s the moat. It’s finally fucking happened—they’ve finally said out loud that you can use MI355Xs if you have superhuman intelligence running in them—and I didn’t have enough AMD, because I got shaken out.
They say the first trillion is the hardest.
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Just checked my phone when turning off vpn (for some reason iOS doesn’t use their private browsing protection mode when you have a vpn on, even if tailscale isn't connected to anything). The result? According to ipleak, it seems Apple is a client of FSLY for our $0.99 benefit that comes with the storage we all pay Apple $12/yr. for in perpetuity
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OHMYFINGD!
Apple why the fuck did you break Siri so bad? I was so happy to hear that it can answer questions… and then this happened. I can’t even open apps anymore. This was my primary use of Siri, since you had such a bad product that I couldn’t do anything else with a “voice assistant.” Just let it open and let me click the “Ignore Limit” button as I’ve always done.
Or, at least add a button to screen time settings, so I can add the app, so this doesn’t happen!
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Use Fable 5.2 on high mode. That’s the best bang for your buck, even if it’s most expensive. (Only for things that need it, of course, like architecting. If you just need to fill in a form, Haiku or Luna or DeepSeek Flash could work)
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Wow, I’m really disappointed in @Apple’s Siri in iOS 27. It reminds me of 2012, when we would talk about how Apple is just years behind everyone else. They wait 5 years after everyone else already has something and then present it as new.
Same thing here. After I highlight something and click the Siri button, it invites me to ask a question about the thing. Then it has no idea what I’m talking about. But that’s not the biggest issue. There’s no prompt engineering at all. I think it’s running GPT-3.5 Turbo. These are the kind of crappy answers that could be generated on-device,
with maybe a quick google search to improve answer relevance, so I can understand the server-side processing due to the larger prefill due to the search.
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it'll still go up another 10% tomorrow or or next week, but then we get a quick high conviction short back to the 200.
fun fact: i'm still red on the 2x leveraged etf
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Wow. SOC. Should’ve just had 1000% short in hindsight
It takes a special kind of skill to, against all odds and after years of legal hardship, restart an oil asset in California.
Then, at $100 WTI, still zero the company.
While putting $50 million+ into your pocket.
Truly a skill that could only be found in the upstream sector.
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Gotta love getting in these after they become famous. Even the more real ones.
Serenity? Destroyed. Gavin? Crushed.
Today might be a good day to finally consider buying $OBE and $CLMT.
OR YOU COULD HAVE JUST HELD $XOM THE WHOLE TIME. Oh wow, it’s down $20 from a few days ago…
Looks like most of X has capitualted on $CLMT. I remain long & going to wait it out. My Q3 EBITDA estimate was 353mil, which was almost on the dot, and I still see continued market conditions to keep these earnings up while they substantially ramp production of SAF, which will keep earnings high when base oil refining margins come down late next year (assuming no more refinery hits, could always end up being later)
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Can someone remind me to not be in it on days like most of last week? I did a pretty good job with that last year. Today, not accounting for leverage, my personal account is up 20%.
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I unfortunately sat through this bottom, again. I think today ends up being the bottom, but it might even last another week, as we keep removing leverage from the system. My leveraged account was killed back a long time ago, due to my inexperience, desire to make more, and ego.
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Terra Luna
You thought I was talking about GPT?
Terra Luna Capital Tethys Fund LP
Los Altos, CA · CIK 0001929054
2022
I can't post the name of my fund publicly.
A good hack generally - super unrelated to your question - is that you can look up funds by name or by the name of the founder on formds.com.
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Why did I stay in (T)QQQ today? Something wrong with my psychology and models kept me from closing.
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