Current Status: Full Port $NBIS Substack @nebulizerlabs Opinions are biased. Portfolio is undiversified.
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🚨 $NBIS Removing Spot GPU Price Ceiling
Nebius is removing the price cap on its Spot GPU marketplace starting 11/2, meaning Spot prices will now be allowed to exceed on-demand rates.
Why does this matter ⁉️
For those unfamiliar, Nebius offers two ways to rent GPUs:
1. On-Demand: Customers pay a fixed hourly rate for GPU access that cannot ordinarily be reclaimed by Nebius.
2. Spot (Preemptible): Customers bid for temporarily idle GPU capacity at dynamically determined prices. The catch? Nebius can reclaim those GPUs at any time.
Historically, Spot prices were capped just below on-demand rates. That ceiling is now disappearing.
But why would anyone pay MORE for interruptible GPUs ⁉️
There is fixed pool of dedicated capacity, whether through long-dated contracts or on-demand offering.
Spot uses some of this GPU capacity that has already been allocated but is temporarily sitting idle.
1. A customer has reserved 800 GPUs but is currently using only 500.
2. The remaining 300 are temporarily idle.
3. Nebius makes those 300 available to Spot customers.
4. If the original customer needs its GPUs back, Nebius can preempt the Spot workloads.
If an AI lab needs 1,000 H200s immediately but only 100 are available on-demand, it might willingly pay a premium to access additional capacity through Spot.
The bigger implication for $NBIS ‼️
Compute scarcity is going absolutely bonkers.
Removing the cap that kept Spot < on-demand rates means Nebius can now capture the full market value of scarce GPU capacity.
Think about that. Customers could potentially pay MORE for interruptible GPUs than for non-preemptible ones.
That's how valuable immediate access to compute can become when supply is constrained.
This is exactly the kind of min-maxing I'd expect from a management team that previously built Yandex into a multibillion-dollar consumer tech empire.
Second stream of the day (👁,‿,👁)
Take your mind off the motion in your portfolio and come catch some motion on $NBIS Weekly #2!
Tonight at 8:30 PM EST!
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Nebulizer retweeted
$NBIS: In its recent Data Centers Investor Webinar, AIB shared more color on the delivery timeline for the 50MW capacity recently announced for Nebius.
Management also noted that short-term colocation availability is limited across the market, with most recent deals now focused on 2029/2030 capacity.
Source: AIB Data Centers Investor Webinar, Oct 1
Financing environment is definitely tight right now.
Difference between $NBIS and $CRWV comes down to existing balance sheet and long-term margin profile.
Arkady did say today that customer prepayments should be enough to bridge 2027 CAPEX (in additional to other potential sources outside of debt markets).
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Also great for $NBIS vs. rest of playing field.
Jensen giving Nebius and neoclouds priority GPU allocation because $NVDA needs them for distribution against hyperscaler custom ASICs.
xitter.cf/daniel_koss/status/211…
$NBIS CEO Arkady just said "chips are probably the next bottleneck".
Basically because the entire chip supply chain is constrained.
Getting allocation will be hard. Probably very bullish for the companies close to $NVDA and great for ensuring there can't even be an overbuild.
Also probably great for pricing.
NEBIUS LIVE DAY 2 | NVIDIA GTC xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1lKQRWbeY…
Link to Nebius Official Stream:
youtube.com/watch?v=ElxZFG9l…
As Mark said during $NBIS Live today, $NBIS will deliver 1GW+ of Vera Rubin capacity in 2027.
The $12B $META deal is entirely for VR200s, which reinforces where GPU mix is heading.
This is what I believe the market is most severely underpricing when modeling forward ARR.
During Q2 earnings management stated they were deliberately withholding contracting out all 2027 capacity. Additionally, Reflection deal, one of the $1b+ deals signed at $20-25MM/MW/YR, is already in the process of actively deploying per @BKad2005's talks at Builders & Brews.
This means the monetization rate a blended figure reflecting GB300s and potentially some early Vera Rubin deployments.
But 2027 is a different story. As the hardware mix shifts dominantly towards Vera Rubin, so does the revenue potential per MW.
Don't want to put a number on this yet, but know that $20-$25MM is the floor, and that 2027 capacity blend is 25% hyperscaler, 75% Enterprise / AI Natives.
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The biggest tailwind no one is baking into their $NBIS 2027 ARR estimates is $NVDA Vera Rubins.
The huge amount of 2027 compute will be for VR200s. So far, the numbers provided by $NBIS management during Q2 earnings in the $20-$25MM/MW/YR range are all for Blackwells, specifically B300s.
"We could sell today our entire 2027 capacity on these terms if we wanted to. We are not doing this."
- Arkady Q2 '26 Earnings
In other words, these numbers are the floor. Where is the upside? Well here's something to chew on.
@JensenHuang said during Q2 2026 $NVDA earnings that Rubin's will go for $40B/GW.
That's a 60% increase in hardware $/MW compared to GB300s, not annual cloud rental revenue. But is illustrative of the step function change in economics.
And I trust that $NBIS management will be conducting auctions galore to maximize producer surplus here.
xitter.cf/mernit/status/21108968…
Obviously guys, we aren't contracting out all this at Elon's risk-on short term contract rates so we aren't going to see a blended rate of $50MM/MW/YR HAHA (i wish).
$NBIS's core customer is enterprise because that's the cornerstone of longevity and stability. We may see an increase in number of auction and scale training deals, but by in far expect bulk of deals to be 1-3YR.
