Yesterday was Biden's stock market but jobs data today is Trump's jobs market.
I don't make the rules.
For those who love the sight of green.
I feel for those who bought SONIA Z6 hoping that it would catch up with rest of the tenors.
Good summary of what we can expect from BOE this week.
The Bank of England finds itself in a strange situation. The economic data isn’t calling for higher rates, but the energy shock may leave it little choice. @SmithEconomics explains why the Bank is likely to hike this week, and why markets may still be getting ahead of themselves. think.ing.com/articles/bank-…
Translation: S&P 500 is 5% below ATH while NASDAQ is 8% lower. How do you expect me to vote for a rate hike under such extreme conditions?
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan explains her support for this week's Fed decision alongside her continued view the Fed needs to make two more hikes.
"Skipping a meeting does not change the monetary policy destination. Indeed, by making the destination clear, the FOMC can better help the economy adapt and obtain the promised benefits of a skip."
***
"Financial markets have been volatile in response to news on the technology investment outlook and geopolitical developments. In such an environment, adjusting policy more gradually can help households, businesses and market participants adapt to higher rates and reduce the risk that economic activity deteriorates more sharply than necessary.
Moreover, as long as market participants understand the FOMC’s policy plans, the precise timing of each rate increase has little effect on the longer-term rates most borrowers pay."
dallasfed.org/news/speeches/…
If the direction of travel is pretty straightforward, why not reach the destination quickly?
Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin to SiriusXM Business Radio:
"I think the direction of travel is pretty straightforward. I think the question though is pace. And so what we said at our September meeting is we signaled a gradual approach.
I think gradual makes sense when you're not much behind the curve where you want time to learn, both from the economic environment and the external environment.
And so we haven't seen much change since then. I think a gradual approach is a good way to go, and we'll see what we learn over the next period of time."
With only six "live" meetings a year, I hope they space them evenly and slot the remaining two on arbitrary dates. That way, the committee would have a similar amount of fresh economic data ahead of each live meeting.
Fed: Look guys, economy is strong, domestic spending is strong, unemployment rate is low and inflation is elevated. That's why we have decided not to hike rates today.
For someone who lobbied so hard for the job, Warsh clearly wants to spend as little time as possible deliberating over, or talking about, rate decisions.
Fed fund traders will now go crazy if Warsh chooses not to tell markets which meetings will be used as strategy meetings. 😂😂
While people trading SOFR wonder whether Fed will hike 25 bp in Oct or not, Jan29 contract in Brazil rates market is up 255bp for the day.
UK is learning from US treasury department.
The UK is poised to make greater use of short-term debt, according to government bond dealers, a shift that could bring down gilt yields and ease pressure on the country’s strained public finances bloomberg.com/news/articles/…













