I hunt the biggest trade in macro. Right now: oil and Hormuz. Macro investor | Policy Advisor | 46K on Seeking Alpha As Babylon burns, we'll light the cigars.
Dubai
Joined July 2024
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On February 21st I warned my clients of the coming war.
On February 28th, the US attacked Iran.
Since then I've said one thing: this conflict lasts longer than anyone wants to believe.
On March 5th I said: buy Frontline ($FRO), Petrobras ($PBR) and Suncor ($SU), among others.
They are up 61%, 51% and 25% since. The S&P 500 is up 14%.
On September 26th I called for re-escalation. We are in the middle of it right now.
My thesis today: the market trades the headlines and stays blindly optimistic, while the trouble and risks are higher than ever.
My confidence has gone up and down, which I shared openly. It is now very high in this trade.
I get calls wrong too. I cut them fast and I say so. I seek maximum transparency, but sometimes I do screw it up.
It's not how often you're right or wrong but how much money you make when you're right and how much money you lose when you're wrong.
On X, I post every day on the biggest trade I can find, before it becomes consensus.
Right now, it's the energy complex. I call it "The Big Long".
You should follow me if you want to join me in finding alpha or die tryin'.
If anything the latest Taco just gives more confidence in our bull flag with another touch. Can't keep the beachball below the surface too long.
We all have that moment in time where we want to go back to believing AXIOS because it would support our narrative.
I've been fooled once. Shame on me. Will I be fooled a second time?
Pondering on the inefficiency of markets.
Is it because humans are fearful and greedy? Maybe.
But more and more, I believe it is mostly because humans are lazy and illiterate.
Who is brave enough to call the bottom in Treasuries?
Not me.
Not anyone whose read a history book.
Not anyone who has looked at a chart beyond the past 5 weeks.
Not anyone who has studied the 70s and 80s.
Sam Kovacs retweeted
The Fed not hiking today will actually indirectly support higher oil and gasoline prices
I suspect they think higher energy prices and yields will do the tightening for them the rest of the year, even though they should hike
They’re so worried about their image and ‘independence’ prior to midterms that they won’t hike, but they will almost certainly move in December, and they should hike today if they cared about inflation (which they do not) as grocery bills top $200 a week… hold and wait, which supports higher energy prices
Sam Kovacs retweeted
ProFrac is a useful frac spread proxy we use in public equity land
One of the best tickers, too.
You can tell from my posts yesterday I was starting to become a little bit of a pussy.
It always happens just before the next leg up.
At 32 I'm still unable to distinguish whether my emotions are anxiety or excitement.
Ok given the moves overnight in oil, we're back on the more aggressive path.
Energy shorts in for a reckoning IMO.
Yes but don't hate the player, hate the game.
I didn't do shit to the Ukranians, the Russians, the Houthis, the Saudis, the Iranians or the Americans.
I'm literally sat behind my screen pressing buttons, yet somehow I'm the bad guy?
Get a grip
Once again, another thing that neither the media nor the plebs realize that it is not only the frequency of strikes which is increasing, but their significance.
Previous hit area back in march was mainly pipelines and manifolds. Yesterday's hit was the main unit at Ras tanura.
xitter.cf/Fireleap_/status/21154…
Bro…
Gotta manage those expectations
API Inventory Moves 10/27
Crude -2.031 million (exp. +800,000)
Gasoline +2.39 million
Distillates +380,000
Cushing -453,000
SPR actual -100,000
#oott #crudeoil #gasoline #distillate