Turned $30k to $17M+ in 12 years. Trying to help others achieve their financial goals, free of charge. EOY 2026 goal: $18.5M. *not associated w Sandeman Bodega
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Great story about how fear can spread. Sprinkled in with some truth bombs from someone working directly for $NBIS.
Also, when the timelines get filled with FUD, it’s okay to shut down social media. I’ve used this tactic many times. I once walked away from looking at ARRY price and posts for a month straight….only to find out one morning it was bought out by Pfizer, a nice multi bagger.
Packing for Disney World today, two Taekwondo belt tests for kids later on, life goes on. Stay busy.
My Disney trip will be a good time to throttle back on price action and reading constant X posts filled with fear and anxiety. When I get back midterms will be over. Could be a turning point. 🫡
there's a lot of FUD on the timeline this week, so i went back to my favorite story about how fear actually spreads.
three schoolgirls on a train once started a run on a perfectly healthy bank.
Japan, December 1973.
one of the girls had just landed a job at Toyokawa Shinkin, a small local bank. her friends teased her that banks were "dangerous" (they meant robbers).
it was a joke. she didn't take it as one.
that night she asked a relative if it was true.
The relative asked someone else, and the question passed from family to family, through a beauty salon, picking up weight as it went.
Then a man borrowed a shop phone and told someone to withdraw 1.2 million yen for a routine payment. a listener overheard and assumed he knew something.
now the rumor had a witness.
a taxi driver later traced how the story changed in a single day:
- afternoon: the bank "might be in danger"
- 2:30: "it is in danger"
- 4:30: "it will go into bankruptcy"
- night: "its shutter will never be lifted tomorrow"
nobody added a single fact, each retelling just dropped a hedge.
by the end, more than a billion yen had walked out the door. The Bank of Japan rushed in cash and stacked it a meter high in front of the vault so people could see it with their own eyes. Police went looking for the crime behind the rumor and found nothing, the bank had done nothing wrong.
so why does the scary version always win?
because a loss feels about twice as strong as an equal gain. Psychologists have measured it for decades. Standing in line costs you an afternoon, but being the one who stayed could cost your savings. with that trade in front of you, running is the rational move, even when the bank is fine.
which brings me to this week.
the timeline is busy with stranded compute and debt stories. Those are fair questions, and some builders will deserve them, but the rumor doesn't check who, it hits everyone standing closest.
so do what the Bank of Japan did, skip the gossip and go look at the vault.
is the power actually connected?
are the customers actually signed?
is the money already there?
those answers don't change because a post went viral. They change slowly, in substations and contracts and concrete.
and that work didn't stop this week. If the cranes are still up, the racks are still getting installed and the demand that started all of this is still there.
a run doesn't make a bank unsound, it just tests whether it was.
Toyokawa survived, the ones building on solid ground usually do.
SandemanStocks retweeted
Wow, guy who has half his net worth invested in $SPCX says only SpaceX will survive.
Who would’ve thought…
People need to stop taking everything Elon says as gospel, frankly. Too many people worship him as if he’s Nostradamus.
Elon has motivation to say this. If it’s not clear to you why he’s been on a FUD tirade against every company except his own, then you are being gullible and taken for a ride on the Elon experience.
I am a massive $TSLA bull as many know. But, I am not oblivious to his business tactics. I have seen him say thousands of these types of statements re; EVs as well, and let me tell you, he is often very wrong.
Never bet against Elon, but also don’t bet against what HE is betting against. $SPCX is going to do very well. Of course he will say this. He needs this to be true so he can ensure he survives.
But, not every neocloud is going to be left for dead. $NBIS for example has managed a great balance sheet.
By the way, neolabs and neoclouds are not the same.
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
This is the week that @elonmusk unfortunately lost most of his credibility.
He didn’t need to do it, but sadly he did.
His companies are still amazing, but the blatant FUD was an obvious campaign. Sad to see bro. You jumped the shark.
If you are worried about $NBIS, do the following exercise:
Ask any AI to model NBIS stock price if they guide to $25B exit ARR for 2027.
This is a conservative number.
$NBIS just secured a $3.5 Billion from Citi days ago. If what Elon says is true $NBIS should pump tomorrow in a logical world. It proves they are top dawg.
As for the others, Elon is not a neutral observer in this sector. Anything he says now has a motive behind it.
I’d take anything he says about his competition here on out with a grain of salt.
JUST IN: Neocloud stocks are trading higher on Liquid despite @elonmusk warnings of a financing squeeze and widespread failures.
Musk says debt markets have almost entirely shut off funding for companies without substantial revenue outside AI data centres. He predicts that only a minority of the industry’s 200+ neocloud providers will survive, with failures and consolidation ahead.
His concern is that developers could lose access to financing before finishing their facilities, leaving expensive computing capacity stranded in partially completed data centres.
Musk contrasted that with SpaceX, which he says closed $40 billion of GPU-related debt financing because it has investment-grade credit and established Starlink and launch revenue.
He also rejected speculation that SpaceX wants to acquire struggling operators: “SpaceX is not buying any neoclouds. Pointless.”
For now, the listed names are holding higher. Liquid perp prices versus Friday’s cash closes, as of 6:50 PM ET:
• $CRWV: $54.24 → $55.351 (+2.05%)
• $IREN: $24.91 → $25.336 (+1.71%)
• $NBIS: $158.74 → $160.80 (+1.30%)
Will these gains hold up?
So I guess by this logic, this means any company that just secured Billions…say from Citi, in the last few days must be among the S Tier.
….ahem…$NBIS
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
SandemanStocks retweeted
I've always defended X as the only platform to be on for financial discourse.
But it's getting harder to when the owner constantly amplifies narratives of collapse… of companies whose interests conflict with his own at $SPCX or $TSLA.
Would people be comfortable if $NVDA Jensen Huang owned $META?
And then the timelines were dominated by his amplified narratives of $AVGO failing?
I can't see how that would be healthy for grassroots discussion.
$NBIS the winners in this will absorb the demand the losers can’t deliver. They will absorb that revenue too.
Also bullish for spot pricing.
SandemanStocks retweeted
$NBIS: A Simple ARR Valuation Model and Why Nebius Could Be Undervalued Here
There are different ways to calculate valuation for a high growth company that is still pre-profit. As for balance sheet, it’s currently strong as Nebius has about the same amount of cash on hand as outstanding debt (roughly ~$8B cash vs. ~$8.5–10B debt as of the latest reported quarter, primarily longer-dated convertibles), but also owns stakes in subsidiaries (including Avride, TripleTen, and interests in ClickHouse and Toloka) that various sum-of-parts analyses value conservatively in the $5B+ range, and their Adj EBITDA has hit around 40% (Q2 2026 printed ~41% group adjusted EBITDA margin, with AI cloud higher, and full-year 2026 guidance reaffirmed at approximately 40%).
Here I will Use a Basic ARR Model:
Nebius is now trading at ~$160 a share which is ~$43B market cap
WHAT ARR MULTIPLE TO USE :
At the worst (lowest) trough of the bear market in winter of 2022, no major Cloud or SaaS company growing ARR at greater than 100% traded below 6X ARR. But we’ve seen as high as 14-20X ARR with some AI cloud companies in raging bull markets like for example Coreweave in 2025.
My multiple range then is 6X ARR to 14X ARR. To be more conservative I’ll take the high end bull metric out completely and use a simplified 6X for BEAR, 8X for NEUTRAL and 10X for BULL.
Nebius is growing ARR at over 100% YoY. So at this point due to macro fears rooted in higher oil prices and potential for FED rate hikes and higher cost of capital I will primarily be looking to apply the bear market multiple of 6X ARR.
It's important to understand that the market is forward looking and already anticipating what Arkady will guide for on Q3 for end 2027 ARR. Comments from Nebius CRO Marc Boroditsky in August indicated potentially tens of billions in revenue at that time next year (that would be by August 2027). And this week at GTC, Marc indicated that Nebius would be looking to acquire 1GW worth of Vera Rubin GPUs in 2027 (note he didn’t say all would be online). Other management commentary at GTC indicates that Nebius will achieve roughly 50% of their revenue from the short term and auction contracts (estimated now to be roughly in the range of $40-$50M per MW).
So with a CEO who has never missed guidance, GPU prices continuing to rise, Arkady saying publicly that financing is no longer a problem (only a task), the fundamental trajectory starts to look increasingly bullish at this valuation.
Let’s hypothesize what end 2027 ARR might look like based on the above commentary.
SHARE COUNT : I will start with all the current total shares outstanding possible if fully diluted ~378M (that’s assuming all convertibles and warrants are exercised). I will then assume Nebius opts to use the remaining ~12M share ATM for 2027 Capex bringing the total to around 390M shares. I would then add another 10M shares for flexibility to do another convertible raise in 2027 (which may or may not be needed) which brings my total estimate to approximately 400M shares outstanding.
2027 ARR Hypothesis (illustrative ranges grounded in the CRO’s “tens of billions,” the 1GW Vera Rubin commentary, short-term/auction pricing of $40–50M per MW, and continued high growth): In a more conservative bear case we might see the street's current estimate of ~$15B ARR if deployment and utilization of new capacity come in much lower than hoped. Imo this would be a bear case based on the above commentary. A case for $25B ARR would reflect solid progress bringing most of the above-reference 1GW of Vera Rubin capacity online with a mix of contract lengths. A bull case made by @daniel_koss would bring Nebius closer to $35B ARR and align more closely with some of the higher published estimates that factor in a substantial contribution from the Vera Rubin capacity plus the existing 2026 ARR base.
Applying the hypothesized exit run-rates to 400M shares, the bear-case $15B ARR would imply roughly $225 at 6x, $300 at 8x, and $375 at 10x. I think this is roughly where the street thinks we will be which explains the average institutional PRICE TARGET of ~$304 right now.
Taking the commentary seriously and we could see more like $25B ARR by end of 2027 which would point to about $375 at 6x, $500 at 8x, and $625 at 10x.
The bull-case $35B ARR would suggest approximately $525 at 6x, $700 at 8x, and $875 at 10x.
These are of course simple ARR multiples applied to hypothesized 2027 exit run-rates and are not forecasts of course so take all this with a grain of proverbial salt. Actual outcomes will depend on capacity online, utilization, realized pricing (what kind of mix of short-term premium vs. longer contracts Nebius can achieve), dilution, financing execution, and of course the ever-volatile macro conditions.
If Nebius achieves what I think is a base case of $20B end-2027 ARR and we continue using the same simplified multiples from the earlier model (6x bear, 8x neutral, 10x bull) with 400M shares outstanding, my implied end-2027 PRICE TARGET range would be as follows:
• 6x ARR (bear): $20B × 6 = $120B market cap → ~$300 per share
• 8x ARR (neutral): $20B × 8 = $160B market cap → ~$400 per share
• 10x ARR (bull): $20B × 10 = $200B market cap → ~$500 per share
Would welcome your comments! Thx for reading and of course these are just my back of the napkin projections but they are why I remain heavily invested in Nebius...
...NFA : Always Do Your Own Research
Engrain this into your brain.
Drawdowns are the norm. New highs are the exception.
Historically the S&P 500 has spent ~80–95% of its time below a prior peak. Since 1871, 82% of months were underwater (price basis). Since 1950, only about 7% of trading days were at record highs.
Volatility is the price of admission. You cannot earn equity-like long-term returns with bond-like volatility; there is no free lunch. The temporary discomfort of being below your high-water mark is the cost of capturing the upside over decades.
That’s why staying the course matters for investors:
• Markets trend higher over time, but the path is jagged. Recoveries eventually erase most drawdowns.
• Selling during declines locks in losses and risks missing the rebound.
• The bigger risk is interrupting compounding by trying to avoid normal volatility.
Being underwater is uncomfortable but expected. The investors who do best treat drawdowns as the entry fee, not a reason to exit. Stay invested and let the long-term maths work.
Post midterms are historically boom markets. Patience.
This reset is giving investors the next great opportunity to construct the portfolio they want for the bull market of our times. That’s what this Innovation Revolution represents.
The data, post midterms, is as good as it gets. From now through the next 15 months, since 1950 the S&P 500 has put up an average gain of 29.9% with profits in 19/19 years. That’s a high probability repeating pattern.
We see this sell off as classically pre-war driven, because it’s a near certainty that it’s coming. This reminds of the adage “when missiles fly, stocks are a buy”.
This will be the most expected and discounted military action of maybe ever. Hedge funds and algos have flipped entirely from long to short and if you know their group-think history, you know what this time frame represents.
Best of success all. 🚀
If you follow all of Ken Griffins trades in real time you would be rich. Problem is, you can’t. He says one thing, does the other.
So if you just listen to him for face value, you would be poor.
Be careful out there.
Ken Griffin of Citadel questions the economics of the AI infrastructure boom:
›What happens when GPU supply exceeds demand & pricing goes into free fall?
›Are today's semiconductor margins sustainable? Are investors overestimating the useful life of GPUs?
“Look, I think this market is actually experiencing people doing research.
For the couple of years, if you were on the thematic program of we're gonna spend hundreds of billions or a trillion dollars in data centers, we're gonna build compute at a scale never seen before, which companies in that story are choke points in supply chains that will have abnormally high margins? And who will be the big winners in this transformation?
Will it be the Microsofts & AWSs who will be the gatekeepers to the foundational models? Like, who's going to earn the economic rents?
But in some sense, like, 'I'm just gonna buy them all. I'm gonna buy the hyperscalers, I'm gonna buy the chip, I'm gonna buy businesses that make things I've never even heard of 5 years ago in Korea and Taiwan & in Japan.'
And now we're reaching a point where people are becoming more discerning.
We do realize that we are seeing extremely high margins in DRAM & MLCCs in areas where there are real supply constraints, but people are now starting to look out 2 years, 3 years. How long is this going to last?
And in particular, I don't wanna be doom & gloom, but GPUs, like airlines, have a very low marginal cost to run.
The incremental seat on an airline that's not full, if you can sell that ticket for $20, you're making money in that seat.
And that's one of the reasons that the airline industry is such a nightmare, is because the moment you have overcapacity, pricing goes into free fall.
We saw this actually with the telecom build-out back in 2000. We built more fiber than we had demand for, & the price of telecommunications just went straight down.
If we reach a point where the provisioning of GPUs exceeds demand for GPUs, marginal pricing will actually go into free fall.
And that really upends all the investment assumptions that people are working with today.
That's issue number one.
And issue number 2 is:
I think people are taking a step back & saying, 'What is the useful life of a GPU?'
Right here, right now, there's people that are earning extraordinary pricing on GPUs that are 5 or 6 years old.
And so there's a growing set of concerns that I can't give the same capitalization rate or the same revenue models to year 7, 8, 9 of a chip in the future that maybe I was using 12 months ago.
So I think we're really grappling with just how far will this demand carry us in the marketplace.”
Sometimes the market gets overzealous and shoots past reality to the upside.
I think this market has now also gotten overzealous and shot past reality to the downside.
It kind of feels forced at this point.
Just my 2 cents.
All truths being spoken here.
So we have all of this… and you’re telling me to turn bearish? ZOOM OUT please.
> @JensenHuang: optics demand “several orders of magnitude” higher. Nvidia scaling capacity 15x.
> $LITE: optical components sold out to early 2029. Customers booking 2030 already.
> $MU: HBM 2027 largely sold out at much higher prices. No line of sight to balance.
> @JensenHuang: new orders “almost weekly and daily.” Reasoning models need orders of magnitude more compute.
> Hyperscalers: ~$800B capex 2026, path to $1T+. Cloud growth accelerating. Backlogs >$1.5T.
> Goldman: need ~$300B AI revenue to break even. Already ~$70B above trend. Hyperscalers at 10y P/E lows. Memory at 4x forward, ~80% margins.
> 4/5 CEOs more optimistic on AI ROI vs last year. Nearly all expect measurable agent returns in 2026.
> AWS CEO: “We feel really good about the spend.” Customers seeing positive returns now.
> Wharton: 80% of leaders report positive AI returns. Strong ROI ~3x higher when measuring growth.
> Goldman Prime Book: fastest tech selling since 2016. Semis hit hardest. Forced sellers out.
> Putin agreed to restart US-mediated talks. Kremlin: conflict is coming to an end.
> Atlanta Fed business inflation expectations down to 2.3%. AI is the supply-side disinflationary force.
> Hang Seng Tech -43% from peak. China washed out while real bottlenecks sit in the West.
> @JensenHuang: AI is a manufacturing industry. Agents = the new software. Physical AI is next. Every company becomes an AI company.
Could keep going but I think the setup is clear enough.
If you are properly positioned, you will easily crush the market over the coming years.
Yeah the market sucks today. But it could be worse. You could be the Atlanta Falcons graphic artist reading the comments below this official @AtlantaFalcons post. 😂😂😭🤣🤣
“Love Nebius, no tagline needed”
-Jensen the Godfather
"I'm going to give you a tagline: No tagline needed!" - @JensenHuang, CEO, @nvidia #NVIDIAGTC Berlin
