On the trends, CL govt requires: - no/minor negative impact on turnout (???), - some overhang on Māori seats (highly likely), - Nats losing net 7-10 electorates (less likely as Lab tanks) - Opp making it in (also likely), and - Nats not being able to make any deal w them (???)

Labour and the Greens need to front up and be clear on their coalition plans. Questions remain unanswered almost 24 hours since Labour and the Greens were challenged to tell Kiwis what their coalition agreement would involve. Both Chloe Swarbrick and Chris Hipkins have been silent about which Green Party policies would be non-negotiable and what concessions Labour would be prepared to make. Chris Hipkins has promised to form New Zealand’s first-ever four-party coalition government with the Greens, Te Pati Māori and Opportunity by Christmas. The Greens are set to be around half Labour’s size and are campaigning on $49 billion of new spending, with nine new taxes to pay for it. Greens co-leader Marama Davidson told Ryan Bridge today that the Greens will have a ‘heck of a mandate’ and ‘no politician will be able to ignore that’. That’s a clear warning to Labour that the Greens will demand serious concessions. New Zealanders deserve to know what policies would be on the negotiating table to get that agreement by Christmas, what a deal with the Greens would cost, and which new taxes will be introduced to pay for it. National is specifically seeking answers on behalf of Kiwis on what percentage of the Greens’ new spending it will adopt. What percentage of that will Chris Hipkins sign up to in a coalition deal? Is it 20 per cent, which would cost around $10 billion, or more? What is Chloe Swarbrick’s bottom line – how much of that $49 billion will the Greens demand before they sign? And how will it be paid for? How much more borrowing and which of the Greens’ nine new taxes will Kiwis be hit with? In the past, Labour and the Greens have agreed to an accord on finance policy. This time, there is no such accord. That, together with the fact that the Greens are larger than ever, means that the Greens have enormous leverage. There is a clear impasse, with the Greens insisting on record borrowing and tax, and Labour claiming that won’t happen. Can we really believe Labour, which has increased borrowing and tax at every opportunity? This election is tight, and with Kiwis now voting, the choice couldn’t be clearer. Stick with National’s plan for a more secure future, or risk it all by going back to a Labour-led coalition with Chloe Swarbrick as Finance Minister with nine new taxes on the table.