Sean retweeted
Yesterday's post struck a nerve, so here's the follow-up.
I'm writing this for one reason: accountability. That's what @nejatian was all about when he joined $OPEN. There's literally a page for it: accountable.opendoor.com So let's apply it.
Start with the chairman of the board. According to his latest Form 4, @rabois directly owns 671,755 shares of $OPEN, roughly $940K worth. This is the same guy who pumped the stock all last year and recently implied he owns at least twice that. He's also missed on his big calls, from the election to "this stock won't see $2." On Opendoor, his credibility is gone, and insulting shareholders won't bring it back.
@mikealfred joins the board a week before earnings. From where I sit, his track record here is bold price calls that tend to quietly disappear when they don't pan out. Is that the steady hand this board needed right now?
@lucmatheson came in to lead tokenization, was gone in under a year, and left with a polished PR exit. What actually shipped?
@nejatian came in hot. He fought for retail, wanted to burn the shorts, and gave this community real energy. Lately there's been silence. From the outside, it looks like the company got over its skis on inventory, bet that 1P could work where everyone else failed, and underestimated how long rates would stay high. Maybe the retail love went to everyone's heads. I hope I'm wrong. Tell us.
@morganb sent out free hoodies to rally the OPEN Army. Cool. But between pickleball sponsorships and AI-generated Instagram content, where are the partnerships and the marketing that actually grow the business?
@fahdananta is the one consistently making a constructive case, and he has his work cut out for him. But if 3P isn't the focus, no amount of polish fixes the underlying model.
Right now the silence leaves two possible outcomes. One is a big buyback, which every shareholder is hoping for. The other is execs peeling off one by one through the quiet holiday stretch, each with a carefully worded goodbye post.
The frustrating part is it didn't have to be a lottery ticket. Capital-light, scalable 3P was the obvious path from day one. Most of us would never have put a dollar in if we'd known the plan was to double down on iBuying in this rate environment.
Here's the good news: the trading window opened this morning. @rabois, @nejatian, @mikealfred, @morganb, @fahdananta, you're all free to buy $OPEN as of today, and any purchase shows up on a Form 4 within two business days.
So let's see what happens. If the people closest to this company don't put meaningful money in over the next five weeks, that tells you everything about their confidence. Retail should take note.
I'm not trying to take this company down. I own it, and I want it to win. I'm asking the people running it to show up.
And to the bots and accounts that'll call this petulant: you're welcome to keep posting your unconditional support. Some of us would rather have answers.
Disclosure: I own $OPEN.
Sean retweeted
$SPY JUST TAGGED 755 AND VIX DIPPED UNDER 20. THE WALL IS BEING TESTED RIGHT NOW 👀
The timeline, simple:
• Last week, the plan said this drop could end in the 740–733 zone.
• Thursday: $SPY closed at 733, the bottom of that zone.
• Friday: it held, and closed at 735.
• Today: straight up through 740, then 750, and an intraday high of 755.21. Now ~753, +2.4% on the day — on real volume, 85M+ shares with the close still to come.
And VIX just dipped to 19.81 — under 20 intraday for the first time in this entire slide, a -22% crush off Friday's close.
So the bounce has arrived at the exact spot that decides everything:
• 756 — the first reclaim level. Today's high was 755.21. One point away.
• 763–766 — the 50 EMA. The real line. The rule was set before this bounce started: a close above 763 means the correction is over.
• Above that: 779, the October highs.
The other way:
• 750 has to hold on a pullback — it was the floor, now it's the test.
• 740 under it, then 733–735 with the 200 EMA. Lose 733 on a close and the bounce failed — and the correction math comes back: 706 on a shallow repeat, 674 on the average, 643 if it's April 2025 all over again.
Two ways it plays:
1) The trap. Rejection at 756–766, this rally was a gift to trim into, and the lower low is still coming.
2) The flip. A close above 766 that holds — correction over, and this turns into a year-end rally.
Two warnings before anyone gets carried away. First, intraday doesn't count — VIX under 20 and $SPY at the wall only matter if they CLOSE there.
Second, October CPI lands tomorrow at 8:30 AM. Even a close above 766 today gets confirmed or killed by that print. Size for the coin flip, don't marry the breakout the day before it.
The plan stays boring: trim into the wall, level by level. Don't chase the pump. Don't short strength. Let the close above or below 763–766 make the call.
Sean retweeted
Before rushing to buy the dip, you should see this.
$SPX weekly chart and why I'm paying close attention right now.
Start with the left side of the chart.
Since the April 2025 lows, the market has followed the same pattern over and over again. Rally, pull back to the 200-day moving average (blue line), bounce, and repeat.
Every single test of that moving average has been bought. That's essentially been the story of this market for the past 18 months.
Now look at the right side.
From August through October, the market stopped making progress. Three months of consolidation between 7,560 and 7,840, with lower highs forming inside that range.
Two weeks ago, we finally broke below that range.
This past week, the selling continued. $SPX opened at 7,611 and closed at 7,377, right near the weekly lows.
We are now sitting roughly 50 points above a moving average that has held six separate times.
This is where things get interesting.
Here's what I'm watching moving forward:
1. The 7,560 level
Does the market attempt to reclaim the breakdown level and fail? Former support turning into resistance is often one of the clearest signs of a larger trend reversal.
2. The 200-day moving average at 7,323
Does it hold for a seventh time?
A weekly close below this level would be a major change in market structure. It would mark the first decisive break in roughly 18 months and potentially signal that the strategy of blindly buying every dip is no longer working.
3. Downside levels
If the 200-day fails, the next major area I'm watching is 7,150, which lines up with the June lows.
Below that, 6,750 becomes the next significant area, where the March base was established, this would be the WORST case scenario.
My biggest takeaway?
For the past 18 months, buying weakness has been rewarded almost every single time.
But markets don't follow the same pattern forever.
The question now is whether we're setting up for another routine bounce or witnessing the beginning of a much larger shift in market structure.
I'm keeping an open mind here. I don't want to blindly assume the 200-day will hold just because it has six times before.
The reaction around these levels over the next couple of weeks could tell us a lot about where this market is headed next.
Sean retweeted
A few points I'd like to highlight regarding the past few days:
- I think Opendoor chose not to provide direct Contribution Margin (CM) guidance for Q4 because it is more difficult to forecast than revenue. Over the last quarters, CM has come in below management’s guidance. For Q3, the forecast was 4.0-4.5%, yet the company reported 3.3%. A similar situation occurred in Q1, management indicated it would be the strongest CM since Q2 2024, which implied a range of roughly 4.7-6.0%, but it ultimately came in at 4.4%.
That said, the company's AVG CM for the year currently stands at 4.5%, which is not bad. Even if Q4 brings that figure down and the annual average ends up closer to 3%, it would still be in line with 2025 levels while supporting a larger inventory base. The tighter the CM, the more inventory volume you need to transact.
- I believe last Friday's sharp selloff was driven by a combination of factors. In the risk section of the 10-Q, the company stated that it cannot guarantee it will not be classified as a "large institutional investor." Based on the legislation written in July, it arguably should not fall under that definition. However, the ambiguity introduced by the Treasury's draft guidance published in October has left the situation unclear, and the company itself acknowledged that it is closely monitoring how the rules are ultimately finalized.
I think retail investors are generally more comfortable with language such as "no assurance" than institutional investors and funds, even when the most likely outcome remains favorable for the company.
On top of that, stock-based compensation (SBC) continues to be a frequent point of criticism among both algorithms and investors discussing the company. Looking at the financials from the outside, it's easy to see why many people focus on the annual net loss figure, which is heavily impacted by SBC expenses. That is not to say the company is not currently losing money, but rather that the accounting presentation makes those losses appear significantly larger than the underlying economic reality.
- It's also worth remembering that the company has only been in rebuilding mode for about a year. That's a very short period of time to evaluate execution. I wouldn't even classify the major declines in the stock price as evidence of poor execution. The entire real estate sector has been under pressure due to macroeconomic conditions. This is a structural issue affecting the industry as a whole, not something unique to Opendoor.
Sean retweeted
UBS Identifies "The Next Leg Of The AI Trade" zerohedge.com/ai/ubs-identif…
$OPEN nice….
4.99. It's back!
This week, 300 Opendoor homes will carry a 4.99% rate on a 5/6 ARM for qualified buyers, as part of Opendoor Drops. We will have a new set of homes every Thursday!
opendoor.com/articles/opendo…
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does anyone know how prospective buyers are finding out about these $OPEN drops?
directly from the opendoor website or through zillow / redfin / their agent?
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Sean retweeted
TRUMP LIVE nitter.gq/i/broadcasts/1AJEmvAWw…
Sean retweeted
Interview with @nejatian @ Silvia Investor Summit 2026 | Day 2. Thanks @APompliano for organizing this.
Sean retweeted
JPM trading desk on potential FOMC scanerios and $SPX reaction
-No hike: Inflation concerns push longer-term yields higher. SPX −1.25% to −1.75%.
-25 bps hike, no guidance: Consensus outcome; steadier long-term yields support stocks. SPX +0.25% to +0.75%.
-25 bps hike, signal October/December hikes: Decisive action to reverse 2025 cuts reassures markets. SPX +0.50% to +1%.
-25 bps hike, higher neutral-rate outlook: Fears of a larger hiking cycle weigh on stocks. SPX −0.25% to −1%.
-25 bps hike, “materially higher” rates ahead: Aggressive inflation-fighting message threatens the bull market. SPX −1% to −2%.
@morganb @lucmatheson @nejatian @laurenkthurston Management at $OPEN is very polished & competent BUT you need to talk with your Board member Keith about all his unprofessional name calling across the Internet. Not a good look for OPEN. He should aim to be better.
Keith - As a representative for OPEN u aren’t very professional with your comical name calling. Of course u can buy the stock, compliance doesn’t restrict u 365 days a year. So just own up to the truth that you are not interested in buying shares with your own cash @nejatian
Sean retweeted
$OPEN may already be operating at ANI breakeven volume
If you want to understand how close OPEN may be to ANI breakeven, look at the chart down below.
I’m using:
• reported company sales through Q2
• @Aubermark estimates for Jul-Sep
• a normalized 5% contribution margin, not Q2’s 5.8%. I wanted to be conservative.
At 5%, I estimate OPEN needs roughly 47 homes sold/day to reach ANI breakeven.
@Aubermark’s current run-rate is basically there.
And this is happening in a LOUSY housing market and before mortgages were launched.
That matters.
If @nejatian and the team can get OPEN to ANI breakeven before housing improves, then lower rates + higher transaction volume + mortgage + 3P marketplace all become upside.
Huge credit to @Aubermark for building the tracker and to @scottfelsenthal for encouraging me to share my thoughts.
Sean retweeted
Very strong week for $OPEN resales.
Company absolutely needs to turnover inventory quickly in this volatile rate environment.
Suggest everyone bookmark @Aubermark's dashboard aubermark.github.io/open-tra…
Sean retweeted
Working with Kaz is an exercise in true first principles management. This interview gives you an incredible glimpse into what that looks like.
Long Kaz. Long Opendoor.
My interview with @nejatian, CEO of Opendoor.
This is a rare look inside a turnaround, while it's happening. It's raw, real, and violent.
Kaz took over $OPEN when it was months away from bankruptcy. His wife shipped a mattress to the office and told him not to come home until he had a plan to break even.
Some of what he told me:
• "All success is unique, but all failures rhyme."
• The most dangerous people in a company are competent but not mission aligned.
• Meetings are a bug in the system.
• The comfortable lies that sink a company are the same ones that sink careers (and countries).
(Shane and guests may hold positions in assets discussed in this episode. Nothing in this conversation should be considered investment advice, financial guidance, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.)