-On CLARITY – my odds of Clarity passing the Senate before the Aug recess sat slightly above a coin flip last week. I said I would buy 45 and sell 60 (wide spread i know). But given the shrinking window of opportunity for Congress, I think I would now buy 25 and sell 35. I wouldn't put much weight on the Polymarket contract (~$2-3M of total volume, and senators were banned from prediction markets a couple months ago, reducing informed flow). -We would obviously see a huge rally in Clarity-sensitive names if the ethics problem were miraculously resolved early this week. This would also likely mean any late Q3/early Q4 drawdown would find support at a higher level than we probably would have otherwise. One nuanced scenario to consider, given the dwindling floor time ahead of the Aug recess is if senators find common ground on ethics and push for at least an initial vote. I think this would probably lead to a lighter tactical rally as optimism around Clarity being revisited in the lame duck period grows. -In the near term it remains a trader's market. Weak flows, narrow leadership, and the absence of a sustained trend continue to favor a buy-dips, sell-rips approach, leaning into winners. BUT this is also a good time to have a sincere conversation with yourself about time horizon and risk appetite, because I do think that one can by the majors here and sell them for higher prices 12 months from now. It is the path and opportunity cost that I am less sanguine about.