age 25 investor
Washington, USA
Joined October 2025
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AI stocks moving lower on $GOOG doesn't make sense.
"we plan to significantly increase capex guidance in 2027"
Google tanking the market is an opportunity to buy
expect Warsh to be hawkish today. Fed not hiking with inflation and oil 30% higher over last month is a recipe for hawkishness
people did NOT like my ideas around $HOOD stock. Let’s see where it’s at 1 year from now…
Been seeing a lot of posts like this. It's a brokerage firm. It's ceiling is quite low. I know that's not a popular opinion, especially on this app. But get out of your echo chamber and look at what the fundemental business function of $HOOD really is. It's a brokerage firm, it makes money on trading volume and tiny fees. There's nothing here to be overly excited about and it's the main reason I closed my position for a profit last year at $140.
keep in mind, the structure of the Iran deal matters a lot.
Let’s say it’s just a 14 day ceasefire with talks expected around nuclear file, the market will rise, of course, but there will still be hedging and profit taking from the skeptical
but
let’s say Iran folds and agrees to transfer its 60% enriched uranium to Russia or other country… this would be a TOTAL shift in narrative, almost a 100% white flag wave. The market would seriously move like we haven’t seen since DJT “this is a great time to buy” tweet.
one can dream 😂🤔
$aaoi = beneficiary of photonic buildout
$NVDA Jensen Huang on photonics: adding scale-up to optical domain, “is going to be, well, 15x” to aggregate volume.
Relating to $LITE, $COHR, and laser companies..
“I'm fairly certain the amount of optics that we need in the future will be several orders of magnitude” Huang added.
We’re already in a CW laser bottleneck, but given the time/rate for capacity expansion, I definitely don’t see it meeting the scale Jensen envisions…
Your leading merchant suppliers focusing new capacity toward UHP CPO lasers might also unintentionally make shortages around lower end ranges more severe…
Since even if you don’t reallocate capacity (which Coherent implied they’d do to maximize margins), the demand for lower end ranges increase too as pluggable demand grows.
Anyway, you’re gonna need a lot of lasers and given low BOM cost… this might trigger some fun game theory allocation wars + price hikes for supply
this probably tricks a lot of people but in case you don’t know, this is completely and 100% false.
The very last thing Trump leans towards in this situation is any more strikes of any kind. We’ve seen what that gets us, this is 100% posturing, nothing more.
I still stand by the fact a deal happens before midterms.
actionable long here
$AAOI
After giving the warning on Oct 11 and AAOI dropping -39% from that day.
I am now calling for a tradeable bottom. I believe next week creates a low in which there is a rally attempt from this low.
The gaps above are the easy first 2 target's.
Gem Capital retweeted
Al-Araby Al-Jadeed reported a potential breakthrough between Washington and Tehran. Interest on $6bn of frozen Iranian funds released in exchange for IAEA access to Iranian nuclear sites. Unconfirmed, and then an unnamed US diplomat disputed it and ruined the fun.
People got a bit excited after the Russians on Monday and the Pakistanis today. A Qatari government jet was in and out of Tehran in about 30 minutes tonight. One Iranian outlet said a delegation arrived, another said none did. Nothing confirmed. My guess is they either picked up (more likely imo) or dropped off a proposal.
I don't think the Russian and Pakistani visits mean that much. I'm sure the war came up but they were more likely looking after their own interests. The Qatari visit is a bit more curious. Earlier today the Qatari foreign ministry called on Iran to honestly ask itself who benefits from this situation, which is about as close as Doha gets to telling Tehran to do the right thing.
My read. Both sides are still at the table and neither wants to leave it. But Tehran won't give an inch on sequencing, blockade first, nuclear later, and that's what's making this hard. Since we have absolutely no idea what Qatar was doing there for 30 minutes tonight, I can't say anything too positive or negative. But movement beats silence.
If we get an Iran deal before midterms and oil starts to drop heavily we’re going to see an end of year rally like we’ve never seen before.
Sentiment on X is horrible, hedge funds are derisking tech at levels not seen since 2009 (the bottom btw) and yields are still pricing the extreme with 4+ rate hikes coming.
What people aren’t realizing is that if we get the Iran deal, all these negative catalysts can unwind. The way you get huge market moves isn’t simply good news. It’s good news that is able to unwind negative catalyst that were priced in. It’s like a coiled spring. I think it can happen, and actually has a better than not chance of happening.
$QQQ $SPY
$QQQ Markets do not top on pessimism. I do not think we've seen the end of this rally despite what you might be reading on X from michael burry/@citrini
During midterm cycles markets (nq) typically experience ~-12% before ultimately ending higher in the following 12 months at a 100% clip.
Yes, 100%, look it up.
Right now any AI headline shocks the market, it will continue to be volatile. Today's recovery from the opening low off more horrible news (PPI) makes me think this could be a bottom, at least for the short term. Be tactical and use the volatility to your advantage, this is an options traders dream!
Good luck everyone
