Shortsighted Capital (@ShortSightedCap) header
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I pick stocks.

Joined January 2012
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Nice to see that Americans can still come together, united by a common belief: hatred of data centers.
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I was talking to somebody yesterday and he mentioned how he knew the founder of Bloom Energy, and how much of an inspiration this guy was. Saw the business through tough times, but now it’s really taking off, etc. After about 10 minutes, I mention something about data-centers… It turns out that he was talking about the founder of Bloom Energy *drinks*. Most out of touch I’ve felt in a while.
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This is like hearing that Hermes is funding the acquisition of Liz Claiborne. Like there has been a trend in the watch industry around reviving old brands (Universal Geneve / Gallet, Czapek, Urban Jurgensen, etc.). Even so - investors.movadogroup.com/ne…
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(Ebel was big in the 80s. Arguably best known for being worn by Sonny Crockett in Miami Vice. Has not been doing so much in recent years.)
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Nike is to ASICS, New Balance, Hoka, etc. as Western Union is to Wise, Remitly, Xoom... I would say “as BUD is to every other beer” but can’t say the share gainers are doing great either. A large incumbent bleeding out can sure turbocharge a lot of new entrants.
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Maybe recurring tasks / agents are the new subscriptions. I now have some recurring tasks I no longer need (or don't even work) - but they've been chugging along for like a week and I haven't told Muse etc. "kill this task" because it's free and I don't care.
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Hearing about all these savings with Muse… how many subscriptions do y’all have? Am I weird for looking at my credit card statements every now and then?
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CrowdStrike running AI-safety related ad copy on CNBC is just… I respect the hustle.
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“Mr. President, the market is computer”
President Donald Trump on Monday pushed back on growing calls for greater regulation of artificial intelligence, and lashed out at Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei following his urgent plea for an AI slowdown. The president’s latest defense of unfettered AI growth arrived amid a sudden crescendo of leading voices in the industry raising alarms about the risks of the nascent tech. Full details: cnb.cx/4dzmcMU
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It’s funny - I have no issue including exhibits from broker research in notes. The source will be noted, of course. Why would I waste time recreating charts? But using AI to write a note? No, somehow doesn’t feel ok. I also dislike the output enough to rewrite it myself.
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the lowest (most negative) correlation between low and high momentum quintiles (using the S&P momentum indices). Good illustration of how the measure of market stress has gone from movements indicating reduction in net exposure to movements indicating reduction in gross exposure
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I’ve noticed that I have become very attuned to LLMs’ default writing style, and find it incrementally more grating. I start subconsciously discounting anything written in that style, even when I shouldn’t. And I know it’s relatively easy to fix the output too.
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I genuinely don’t know the answer to this: at what does a seasonal pattern become self perpetuating?
Everyone knows that July is seasonally bullish. But, over the past five years, it is the most negative month for the momentum factor (top 10%/bottom 10%). Heading into July, momentum has been on a historic tear...makes sense to see the broadening/rotation (excerpt h2 outlook).
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I’m still not sure how exactly you should deal with “ai dabblers” from a portfolio construction perspective. Consider a widget co. They’re now going beyond their historical end markets and doing something in the AI / DC world. Maybe that potential was even part of the pitch.
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Again, probably doesn’t look too bad if you’re running correlations. But, if there’s a more fundamental deterioration in AI, your widget sector is now probably a detractor (versus your selection effect being otherwise uncorrelated)
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I’m not totally sure how you should think about this in portfolio construction. Any thoughts? (Assume you aren’t going to be able to trade in / out quickly)
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