Everything AI and Data Center
Joined September 2009
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Leopold Aschenbrenner's prediction is coming true.
June 2024: "At some point Google will get $100 billion of revenue from AI. Probably their stock will explode. They're going to become a $5 trillion, $10 trillion company."
Today: Google Cloud +103% to $30.7B a quarter (~$123B run rate), a $561B backlog, and $GOOG at ~$4T.
Is bubbleboi in jail???
His gf had tweeted that he is in jail (after his domestic abuse) and later removed.
I had seen that tweet by my own eyes.
Find someone who looks at you just like Jenson looks at Nebius CEO $NBIS
Today I learned that Chinese LLM companies are rutherlessly scrapping my website using residential IP address
I was happy that my website was gaining traction but turns out it was all a method to bypass cloudflares anti scrapping policies
Adobe has better potential than Meta in AI 🤮🤮🤮
“.. At the moment, we have more compute capacity than we have demand, and we have a lot of the tokens and processing power being given away in freemium solutions,” he told @CNBC. “Everyone in the AI race is running for a last-man standing position.”
cnbc.com/2026/10/19/gartner-…
ASML took in more cash last quarter than it sold.
€11.8B of operating cash flow on €11.7B of sales. A year ago it was €0.6B.
Big driver: long-term contract liabilities (money paid or billed for gear not yet delivered) went from €3.6B to €9.3B in one quarter.
Customers are paying to get in line. $ASML
THE BANKS JUST TOLD YOU WHERE THE AI BUILD GETS SQUEEZED
JPMorgan, Goldman and Wells Fargo all talked about data center financing on their Q3 calls today:
• Goldman's Solomon: recent studies say the US data center build could need "north of $10 trillion" through 2032. Compute demand "significantly exceeds supply" right now
• Same call: who the tenant is changes the financing rate a lot. "There's a big difference" between a project built for a hyperscaler and "some of the neo clouds"
• JPMorgan CFO Barnum: AI exposure is "still quite modest" but not "immune to a major change in sentiment." It's not just construction loans anymore, it's increasingly "working capital revolvers"
• Wells Fargo's Scharf flagged "the significant leverage used to finance the build-out"
Said earlier today the next risk to the AI trade is the cost of money for whoever builds on credit. The people writing the checks just said it out loud. Solomon's version: "it may be" that as financing needs grow, rates get pushed up, "and that will affect the returns and the viability of certain projects."
Same megawatts, different cost of capital. A hyperscaler-leased campus and a neocloud-leased campus aren't the same asset anymore, and the lenders are pricing that in before the market does.
$GS $JPM $WFC $CRWV $NBIS
Didn't expect the best AI supply chain check this week to come from a Fed president.
Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee told Semafor that AI inflation is "jumping out of its lane." Prices are going up in spaces "not just components in data centers and the directly adjacent industries," and he's "increasingly nervous" it's plain old overheating demand.
The part that got me is buried in the transcript. He met manufacturers in downstate Illinois. They told him they can't get electricians, and there's "a one-year waiting list for all these different kind of electrical component parts, and that's because of the data centers."
Yesterday I said the action at OCP was everything around the GPU. Power, busbars, connectors. Now a Fed president is hearing it from factory owners in Illinois.
Two ways this cuts.
If you sell electrical gear into this buildout, a one-year waitlist is pricing power, and a rate hike doesn't make that backlog disappear overnight. $ETN $VRT $GEV, and $PWR basically sells the electricians everyone's short of.
If you borrow to build, it's different. Goolsbee says AI investment hasn't been very rate sensitive so far, "but it does seem like they're getting more debt-financed." If the Fed pushes rates up, "the cost of investment would get more expensive." Semafor's own take is that Alphabet and Meta have ad cash cows that can absorb a few extra basis points. Smaller builders on credit may not.
Case in point this morning: $CIFR announced $850M of 0% converts, partly for its Barber Lake build, and the stock got hit hard. Zero coupon isn't free money when you pay for it in equity.
He doesn't vote until 2027. But asked about hiking again this month, he said "if inflation remains persistent, then I think it's clear what the Fed has to do." September CPI lands this week.
The next risk to the AI trade probably isn't demand. It's the cost of money for whoever is building on credit. Own the backlog, be careful with the leverage.
