Joe Handeland

Hmmm.. 🤔

My thoughts on JJ McCarthy and Vikings fans placing the blame on KOC and everything else under the sun: Draft position shouldn’t guarantee unlimited opportunities. JJ has had 10 regular-season starts, and the results haven’t been good. 10 starts because of injuries. Now, after another full offseason, what we’ve seen through two preseason games hasn’t shown the progression you’d hope to see either. And this is where blaming KOC or “development” loses me. KOC has gotten productive QB play out of Cousins, Darnold, Mullens and even Dobbs in stretches. We’ve seen his offense create opportunities with multiple different QBs. Look at Trey Lance and Kyle Shanahan. San Francisco traded THREE 1st-round picks to move up and draft Lance #3 overall. If draft investment meant a QB was owed years of starts to develop, Lance would’ve gotten one of the longest leashes imaginable. Instead, Shanahan and the 49ers moved on. Lance didn’t even reach 10 starts with SF. Does that mean Shanahan suddenly couldn’t develop QBs? Of course not. Sometimes the player simply doesn’t develop into what you projected. That’s the part people ignore with JJ. Could he still improve? Absolutely. But development isn’t a guarantee. Coaches can teach, scheme guys open and put a QB in position to succeed. The QB still has to execute. After 10 regular-season starts and what we’ve seen this preseason, I don’t think Minnesota owes JJ more starts just to find out especially if they have a better QB and have seen enough through 3 off seasons to know. The Vikings took a shot and it hasn’t worked out. At some point you stop evaluating the prospect you hoped you drafted and start evaluating the player he’s actually showing you he is.

People act like the formula is just “draft a young franchise QB and develop him.” The last 20 Super Bowls show how much harder it actually is. 10 of the last 20 were won by just 4 QBs: Tom Brady — 4 Patrick Mahomes — 3 Peyton Manning — 2 Aaron Rodgers — 1 The other 10: Eli Manning — 2 — Giants (draft-day trade) Ben Roethlisberger — 1 — Steelers (drafted) Drew Brees — 1 — Saints (not drafted) Joe Flacco — 1 — Ravens (drafted) Russell Wilson — 1 — Seahawks (drafted) Nick Foles — 1 — Eagles (drafted) Matthew Stafford — 1 — Rams (not drafted) Jalen Hurts — 1 — Eagles (drafted) Sam Darnold — 1 — Seahawks (not drafted) And look at those remaining names: Brees, Roethlisberger, Eli, Wilson, Stafford, etc. That’s the point. It’s not about simply drafting a young “franchise QB.” It’s about drafting the NEXT GREAT QB — and that is incredibly hard. Finding a franchise QB and finding a QB capable of winning you a championship are two very different things. If you don’t have one of the great ones, history shows just how small your margin for error becomes.

I can’t reply to Almethea glass because he blocked me but he’s wrong about Drake Maye and Caleb being worse in their first 10 starts. Here are the numbers : First 10 starts: Caleb Williams — #1/QB1 — ~61% | 2,016 | 9-5 | 82.3 Jayden Daniels — #2/QB2 — ~69% | 2,147 | 9-2 | 101.7 Drake Maye — #3/QB3 — ~67% | 1,898 | 12-9 | 88.4 Michael Penix Jr. — #8/QB4 — ~61% | 2,367 | 11-6 | 85.3 J.J. McCarthy — #10/QB5 — 57.6% | 1,632 | 11-12 | 72.6 Bo Nix — #12/QB6 — 63.6% | 1,968 | 10-6 | 82.9 JJ was hands down the worst. It’s not close.

TOP-10 DRAFTED QBs: FIRST 10 NFL STARTS (2006–2025) QB — Pick/QB# — CMP% | YDS | TD-INT | RTG 2006 Vince Young — #3/QB1 — 52.7% | 1,571 | 9-10 | 66.5 Matt Leinart — #10/QB2 — 56.7% | 2,385 | 10-10 | ~75 2007 JaMarcus Russell — #1/QB1 — 53.2% | 1,669 | 7-5 | 73.2 2008 Matt Ryan — #3/QB1 — 58.3% | 2,302 | 12-8 | 83.8 2009 Matthew Stafford — #1/QB1 — 53.3% | 2,267 | 13-20 | 61.0 Mark Sanchez — #5/QB2 — 53.1% | 1,791 | 10-16 | 61.1 2010 Sam Bradford — #1/QB1 — 60.6% | 2,158 | 14-9 | 79.0 2011 Cam Newton — #1/QB1 — 60.0% | 2,885 | 12-14 | 80.0 Jake Locker — #8/QB2 — 56.2% | 2,024 | 10-11 | 72.9 Blaine Gabbert — #10/QB3 — 50.8% | 1,475 | 7-7 | 68.0 2012 Andrew Luck — #1/QB1 — 57.0% | 2,965 | 12-12 | 77.2 Robert Griffin III — #2/QB2 — 67.1% | 2,193 | 12-3 | 101.0 Ryan Tannehill — #8/QB3 — 58.5% | 2,120 | 6-12 | 70.8 2013 No QB drafted in Top 10 2014 Blake Bortles — #3/QB1 — 59.5% | 2,261 | 8-13 | 72.2 2015 Jameis Winston — #1/QB1 — 58.4% | 2,405 | 15-9 | 86.5 Marcus Mariota — #2/QB2 — 63.4% | 2,512 | 19-9 | 95.1 2016 Jared Goff — #1/QB1 — 55.3% | 1,804 | 7-9 | 70.7 Carson Wentz — #2/QB2 — 63.2% | 2,339 | 11-7 | 87.6 2017 Mitchell Trubisky — #2/QB1 — 59.2% | 1,822 | 8-7 | 79.7 Patrick Mahomes — #10/QB2 — 65.9% | 3,185 | 29-8 | 112.7 2018 Baker Mayfield — #1/QB1 — 64.4% | 2,877 | 19-10 | 93.4 Sam Darnold — #3/QB2 — 55.0% | 2,104 | 12-15 | 69.5 Josh Allen — #7/QB3 — 52.3% | 1,776 | 7-11 | 64.2 Josh Rosen — #10/QB4 — 55.0% | ~1,700 | 9-11 | ~68 2019 Kyler Murray — #1/QB1 — 63.9% | 2,553 | 12-5 | 90.2 Daniel Jones — #6/QB2 — ~62% | ~2,400 | 20-11 | ~89 2020 Joe Burrow — #1/QB1 — 65.3% | 2,688 | 13-5 | 89.8 Tua Tagovailoa — #5/QB2 — 63.5% | 2,007 | 12-6 | 86.3 Justin Herbert — #6/QB3 — 66.9% | 3,015 | 23-7 | 100.9 2021 Trevor Lawrence — #1/QB1 — ~58% | 2,141 | 8-9 | 72.8 Zach Wilson — #2/QB2 — 56.2% | 1,911 | 6-11 | 66.4 Trey Lance — #3/QB3 — DID NOT REACH 10 STARTS (6 career starts) 2022 No QB drafted in Top 10 2023 Bryce Young — #1/QB1 — ~59% | 1,877 | 9-8 | 74.9 C.J. Stroud — #2/QB2 — ~62% | 2,962 | 17-5 | 99.3 Anthony Richardson — #4/QB3 — 50.2% | 1,535 | 7-8 | 68.8 2024 Caleb Williams — #1/QB1 — ~61% | 2,016 | 9-5 | 82.3 Jayden Daniels — #2/QB2 — ~69% | 2,147 | 9-2 | 101.7 Drake Maye — #3/QB3 — ~67% | 1,898 | 12-9 | 88.4 Michael Penix Jr. — #8/QB4 — ~61% | 2,367 | 11-6 | 85.3 J.J. McCarthy — #10/QB5 — 57.6% | 1,632 | 11-12 | 72.6 2025 Cam Ward — #1/QB1 — 58.4% | 1,954 | 6-6 | 73.8 —————————————————— 2024 CLASS BONUS Bo Nix — #12/QB6 — 63.6% | 1,968 | 10-6 | 82.9 So the six 2024 first-round QBs through their first 10 starts: Daniels — QB2 — 101.7 RTG Maye — QB3 — 88.4 Penix — QB4 — 85.3 Nix — QB6 — 82.9 Williams — QB1 — 82.3 McCarthy — QB5 — 72.6 McCarthy: 57.6 CMP% 1,632 passing yards 11 TD 12 INT 6.7 Y/A 72.6 passer rating Actual NFL production matters. McCarthy was the 5th QB drafted in his own class, and through 10 starts his passing production and efficiency have been near the bottom of the highly drafted QB sample. Even within his own 2024 class, all five other first-round QBs produced a better passer rating through 10 starts — including Bo Nix, who was drafted after McCarthy.

When your QB is holding the ball for 3+ seconds and turning more than a 1/4 of pressures into sacks, you can’t just point at the OL every time protection breaks down. PFF pass-blocking rank: 2024: 15th 2025: 14th And he topped 200 passing yards just TWICE in 10 starts: 248 vs Baltimore 250 vs Dallas Those defenses finished 30th and 32nd in passing yards allowed. Minnesota went 6-4 with JJ, but only ONE of those six wins featured even 200 passing yards. JJ was inaccurate, held the ball too long, threw more INTs than TDs, graded 35th as a passer and averaged 163 yards/game. The Vikings winning with him doesn’t mean they were winning because of him.

The “JJ was better than all these QBs through 10 starts” argument needs context. FIRST 10 STARTS: Mahomes: ~3,100 YDS | 29 TD | 7 INT | ~115 RTG Herbert: ~3,000 | 23 | 9 | ~100 Stroud: 2,962 | 17 | 5 | 99.3 Burrow: ~2,700 | 13 | 5 | ~90 Kyler: ~2,550 | 12 | 5 | ~91 Mayfield: ~2,400 | 17 | 10 | ~94 Love: ~2,300 | 16 | 10 | ~87 Lawrence: 2,141 | 8 | 9 | 72.8 Fields: ~1,900 | 7 | 10 | ~73 McCarthy: 1,632 | 11 | 12 | 72.6 Allen: ~1,600 | 7 | 11 | ~67 Z. Wilson: ~1,900 | 6 | 11 | ~66 Rosen: ~1,800 | 9 | 13 | ~68 JJ can absolutely still develop. 10 starts isn’t enough to call anyone a bust. But cherry-picking Josh Allen and John Elway doesn’t prove JJ’s start was good. Allen is famous partly because his development from where he started was so unusual. Josh Allen proves you CAN overcome a bad start. He doesn’t prove a bad start isn’t concerning. If “data is fact,” use the entire sample—not just the QBs who support your argument.

Another good day for Kyler. Stacking these good days is what we were hoping to see.