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The Silicon Stack Podcast | Ep. 2 Featuring @PaulBPrager
I sat down with $WULF CEO Paul Prager. The Naval Academy grad who has transformed TeraWulf into one of the fastest-growing pure-play AI/HPC data center platforms in the U.S.
We discuss:
• The 20-year Anthropic deal
• Statewide data center moratoriums
• Power generation (BTM & FTM)
• Overseas expansion plans
Senior Vice President at Cast believes the long-term risk for neoclouds like $CRWV is that hyperscalers are aggressively developing custom silicon (internal accelerators) and self-building at massive scale, which may eventually reduce their dependence on third-party GPU lessors after 2028.
“It's early on in the custom silicon game relative to the valuation that we're giving GPU providers in neoclouds today. I think if you're assessing how the AI inference could erode the market share, it's still the biggest long-term threat, but it shrinks CoreWeave's share of AI compute rather than the GPU market's absolute size, at least for the rest of this decade. The threat is concentrated in exactly the place that CoreWeave relies on, hyperscaler overflow demand and inference, which is both the fastest-growing workload and where older GPUs go for their second life. Frontier training for labs that don't own chips is probably the most protected part of that market.”
The expert from this post is a Vice President focused on AI ecosystem and cloud alliances at an AI infrastructure company, he has spent the past decade working in cloud and AI infrastructure, including enterprise sales roles at Amazon and Microsoft.
Small Cap Snipa retweeted
B200s are listed 39% below $AMZN AWS on GPU marketplaces. Buyers aren't getting that discount.
Executed trades sit at $9.61/hr, only 22% under the $12.36 AWS capacity block rate.
For neoclouds like $CRWV, $NBIS and $IREN, B200s are renting closer to AWS than the listings suggest.
Expert call: $NBIS
Former global strategic partnership lead at Nebius says Nscale’s AI factory is closer to $IREN than Nebius or $CRWV:
“Nscale at the moment is investing considerable amount of resources in the AI factory scale, especially if we are talking about the deployments in the U.S. as well as in Norway. By saying that, how they position themselves in comparison in the space. At the moment, they are not at the same level of CoreWeave or Nebius, they have still quite substantially time to go. They position themselves closely to IREN at the moment. Even though IREN is more specialized than, for example, Nscale with acquisition of Mirantis, this is a more complete offering for enterprise solutions, in this case. Nscale, they are moving towards their direction.
They become a fully integrated neocloud with specialized GPU as a service and probably moving forward toward inference as a service. At the moment, though, like I mentioned before, because of limited capacity, so we are still small in space, even though we have significant contracts also with Anthropic. It takes time to deploy, at least normally standardized time for deployments is going to be 18 months. It means that they are spending entire 2026 in actually preparing the facilities for the deployments, and then they are going to be start in the second half of 2027 to start to have more commercial deployments, more bare metal that's going online. A key for Nscale’s strategy was not only to secure the contracts for the capacity. We are talking about almost 500,000 GPUs, but also because of the IPOs.”
Greenwich just published a 15-page deep dive on the $IREN x Microsoft contract:
Key takeaways for IREN: Construction & Delivery / Acceptance & Performance Risk
• Horizons 3 and 4 cannot be delivered until Horizons 1 and 2 are operating as a single cluster.
• Microsoft can terminate a tranche (and recover the upfront) if the minimum GPU quantity is not delivered for acceptance testing within the delay window.
• A documented NVIDIA failure to deliver GPUs is an excluded delay (extends the window), but other delays can trigger the late-delivery exit.
• Before acceptance, Microsoft can reject a tranche only if it fails the agreed acceptance criteria (and only within 5 days).
• After acceptance, IREN’s fees are “non-refundable, non-cancellable” through 2031.
• Service-level shortfalls and late deliveries after acceptance mainly earn delay credits or sit in a redacted service-level exhibit, they do not generally allow Microsoft to exit the whole contract.
• The uncredited upfront is refundable only in narrow cases (Microsoft terminates for uncured material breach other than late delivery or service-level failure, or IREN ends the agreement under section 7.g).
Truist: We view the softness in $CRWV and $NBIS shares as a buying opportunity
“Amid the weakening sentiment we believe investors should remain focused on the underlying fundamentals of these two AI cloud providers, which are only strengthening.”
• Compute supply constrained through 2028
• Pricing power continues to expand
• $40-50M/MW on shorter-duration deals
• $10M/MW on long-term deals
Ken Griffin’s Citadel disclosed a 5.5% stake in $CIFR 😅
The 13G is mostly Citadel Securities market-making inventory, not a directional bet by the fund.
$NBIS SECURES $3.5 BILLION FINANCING FACILITY WITH CITI
Bernstein hates $CRWV: lowers price target to $51 from $74
“We caught a lot of hate when we initiated on CoreWeave with a $56 price target seven months ago. Today, it's a lot harder to find bulls-certainly some of them just don't call us anymore, but there seems to be more broad acceptance of the challenges of this business model.”
Small Cap Snipa retweeted
𝗪𝗲𝗹𝗹𝘀 𝗙𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗼 $315 𝗳𝗿𝗮𝗺𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 $NVDA 𝘂𝗽𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗼 2027 𝗮𝘀 𝗮 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆 𝗾𝘂𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻.
Every GTC Berlin item the note lists adds capacity somewhere in the chain:
1. Substrates
2. Advanced packaging
3. Test
4. Optics for co-packaged links
$SPCX is one buyer asking for 10 GW next year, Nvidia only. That is close to half of what Wells has Nvidia shipping in 2027.
My guess is that gives Nvidia the say over who gets Vera Rubin first, and pricing holds through 2027.
Wells Fargo sees $NVDA shipping ~23 GW of AI infrastructure capacity in CY27 / FY28: $315 PT
Vera Rubin supply chain is 2x that of Grace Blackwell and can assemble a VR rack in 5 minutes today vs two hours previously.
Wells Fargo sees $NVDA shipping ~23 GW of AI infrastructure capacity in CY27 / FY28: $315 PT
Vera Rubin supply chain is 2x that of Grace Blackwell and can assemble a VR rack in 5 minutes today vs two hours previously.
NEOCLOUD / HPC EXPERT CALLS:
I’ve started sourcing expert calls with current and former VPs and directors across neoclouds, hyperscalers, and the broader AI ecosystem.
Focus areas: $NBIS, $CRWV, $SPCX, $NVDA, $MSFT, $IREN, Crusoe, Nscale + more.
I’ll post transcript snippets here and walk through the full calls on spaces Saturday evenings. My real-world job is picking up, which I’m very grateful for, so this is how I’m keeping the high-alpha notes flowing without needing to be online 24/7.
If you’re interested in this, follow and DM me. My DMs are always open if you want to connect or have something relevant.
Looking forward to getting these out!
$IREN to advance Europes sovereign AI ambitions with 300 MW Spanish campus
Planned 300MW Badajoz campus provides foundation for European AI Cloud capacity; initial operations targeted for 2028
$NBIS introduced public live pricing for GPU spot computing capacity, expanding its pricing options for AI developers
• Expands AI Builder Program to Europe with NVIDIA to accelerate European AI development
• Live prices are available on its website and through Shadeform, Silicon Data and GPU Finder.
• Other options include reserve auctions for short-term capacity blocks and pay-as-you-go access without fixed-term reservations.
• Nebius is also piloting a capacity-rebate program that lets customers recover value by returning idle GPUs to the spot pool.
Morningstar cuts Neocloud price targets on financing risk:
$CRWV: $108 from $115
$NBIS: $150 maintained
$IREN: $37 from $43
“Despite similar business risk, Nebius' balance sheet is stronger, (CoreWeave) with minimal net debt. Nebius has correctly used its high valuation to raise capital through equity and convertibles but needs to keep its share price elevated to maintain lower financial leverage than its peers.”
Bottom line from the note: cheap capital is essential to the trillion-dollar AI buildout, but rising leverage and credit stress are now material risks.




















