Political analysis at your fingertips. By @lxeagle17, @hwlavellemaps, @Thorongil16, @politicsmaps, @maxtmcc | 🎤 ✉️ [email protected]
Joined November 2021
- Tweets1.4K
- Following165
- Followers26.2K
- Likes864
Split Ticket retweeted
Join us. theargumentmag.com/
Split Ticket retweeted
"Trump’s promised protectionist push has opened cracks in the Republican coalition," @politicsmaps and @maxtmcc of @SplitTicket_ write. wapo.st/42Brv8v
Split Ticket retweeted
"The 2024 election was unusual in many ways," write @HWLavelleMaps and @lxeagle17 of @SplitTicket_.
Yet one aspect should not surprise anyone, though it will rankle some who wish it was not true: wapo.st/4kbzl0p
Split Ticket retweeted
It's election day!
Our final @SplitTicket_ forecast:
President: 🟦270-268 Harris (53% chance of winning).
House: 🟦219-216 Democrats (53% chance of winning)
Senate: 🟥 52R-48D (73% chance of winning)
split-ticket.org/2024/11/04/…
Split Ticket retweeted
General strength is different from primary strength, but here's how 3 potential #NJSen candidates' @SplitTicket_ WAR scores look (18/20/22)
ANDY KIM* (#NJ03): D+1, D+5, D+3
MIKIE SHERRILL (#NJ11): D+7, D+1, D+5
JOSH GOTTHEIMER (#NJ05) D+6, D+4, D+2
* = unlikely
Safe Dem.
Split Ticket retweeted
Republicans can only afford to lose Arizona + Wisconsin or any one of the other tossups. There is a narrow but open pathway for Republicans to make a White House return in 2025.
Our initial Presidential ratings are out, with both parties within striking distance of winning the White House in 2024.
Democrats: 247
Republicans: 219
Tossup: 72
split-ticket.org/2023/06/02/…
Split Ticket retweeted
Long weekend PSA: if you’ve enjoyed our forecasts, models, and pieces about young voters, demographic shifts, candidate quality, and state trends, please subscribe for free to @SplitTicket_ — our presidential ratings will be out very soon 👀👀
split-ticket.org/subscribe
Split Ticket retweeted
Well, he's right. split-ticket.org/2023/05/16/…
Split Ticket retweeted
Per request — there is a strong correlation between our past and future @SplitTicket_ WAR scores, which to me suggests that our models do pick up the signals regarding underlying candidate strength in a sound manner.
Split Ticket retweeted
ICYMI, here's our @SplitTicket_ preview for the race that decides control of the Wisconsin Supreme Court tonight.
Dem-aligned Janet Protasiewicz enters as the clear favorite, in a race rated Likely Protasiewicz with 6:1 odds of a Dem win and a ~D+6 margin
split-ticket.org/2023/04/03/…
Split Ticket retweeted
We are possibly in the largest sustained period of age polarization. But are young independents really going to save the GOP from its massive youth problem?
For @SplitTicket_, we took a deep look at the case study of North Carolina to get a better idea.
split-ticket.org/2023/03/06/…
Split Ticket retweeted
Would love if you would check out my piece for @SplitTicket_ on the need-to-know voting blocs for tomorrow’s election in Nigeria. Special thanks to @HWLavelleMaps and the ST team for helping me get this article out ahead of #NigeriaDecides split-ticket.org/2023/02/24/…
Split Ticket retweeted
Lot of things to ponder after that rather surprising batch of elections on Tuesday.
- We favor Dems to flip the Wisconsin Supreme Court, rating the race as Leans Protasiewicz
- Serious improvement in the generic ballot for Democrats.
latest @SplitTicket_: split-ticket.org/2023/02/23/…
Split Ticket retweeted
I probably should clear up something: The Split Ticket Discord community is not reflective of the @SplitTicket_ team's views themselves. We had no input in this map, on account of the fact that all 4 of us are tech boomers at heart in that we barely use Discord.
This Post is from an account that no longer exists. Learn more
Split Ticket retweeted
Hi folks — join us for the @SplitTicket_ live coverage of the Wisconsin Supreme Court elections tonight! First results drop at 9 EST! youtube.com/watch?v=HJnF2DTW…
Split Ticket retweeted
🚨ANNOUNCEMENT🚨
We've launched the first-ever federal candidate quality database on our site, and you can find it from the split-ticket.org homepage! We have wins-above-replacement scores for 2018, 2020, and 2022 for the House and Senate both, and interactive House maps!
Split Ticket retweeted
Unlike Crystal Ball and Cook Political Report, @SplitTicket_ does not give the early 2023 edge to Gov Beshear’s re-election.
They’re calling it a tossup.
You’re unable to view this Post because this account owner limits who can view their Posts. Learn more
Split Ticket retweeted
So, in the downtime between election seasons, we've been trying to build out our candidate quality database @SplitTicket_. Our 2018 and 2020 Senate and House models were primitive in comparison to 2022, and could do with some reworking. Expect some refreshes to the old ones soon.
Split Ticket retweeted
Ever wondered which races Libertarians probably changed by playing spoiler?
We've got an amazing @SplitTicket_ piece for you today on this, from @HWLavelleMaps and @Thorongil16.
Democrats probably have a few extra Senate and House seats thanks to this. split-ticket.org/2023/02/10/…
