Sports 🫡 | @SleeperPicksHQ Partner (CODE: MUSTAFA)
Joined December 2016
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🚀🏈 MNF SGP 🏈🚀
#DaBears vs #Seahawks
Risking 0.5 units ➡️ +960 on #Draftkings
Link in comments 🤝
Run this up if you’re tailing, let’s SMACK ‼️ 🫡
🏈 Monday Night Football Prop 🏈
1u - Swift (CHI) o3.5 Receptions (+130 @CaesarsSports)
#DaBears vs #Seahawks
Kyle Monangai is out for a fourth straight game, which matters more than Swift's season numbers suggest. His 3.1 catches per game includes four games where he was splitting the backfield. In the three games since Monangai went down, Swift has caught exactly four passes each time on 14 total targets, while handling over 90% of Chicago's running back touches.
The snap split makes this work. Over the last two weeks, Swift has been on the field for 85% of snaps when the game is within seven points, with Roschon Johnson at 15%. Chicago comes in as a three-point underdog, so a one-score game for most of the night is the likely script.
Seattle's defense also pushes throws to the backfield. They rank 31st in blitz rate but second in pressure rate at 41%. When pressure arrives that fast with seven defenders in coverage, the back is usually the quickest outlet. Running backs have caught 38 of 44 targets against Seattle this year, and their 5.4 running back receptions allowed per game is fifth-most in the league. Lead backs with a real passing role have gotten there: Rhamondre Stevenson caught five in Week 1, and Mitchell caught five for the Chargers. Swift has caught 22 of his 26 targets on the season, so the looks have been turning into catches.
🏈 Monday Night Football Prop 🏈
1u - JSN (SEA) o7.5 Receptions (+115 @theScoreBet)
#DaBears vs #Seahawks
JSN has 58 catches on 78 targets through seven games, and he's been the target on 34.7% of Seattle's pass attempts. He also leads the league with a 43.1% first-read rate. That matters tonight against a Chicago defense that sends extra rushers more than almost anyone.
He's cleared 7.5 in five of seven games, and both misses have an explanation. One was a 22-attempt game against the Chargers. The other was the 49ers game, where he tweaked his ankle in the second quarter. Every time Seattle has completed 19 or more passes this year, he's gotten to eight.
The target tree gets thinner tonight. Rashid Shaheed is out with a knee injury, leaving Cooper Kupp and second-year Tory Horton as the other wideouts. We saw this exact setup last week: Shaheed left the Kansas City game in the first half, and JSN finished with 12 targets, 9 catches and 150 yards. He has 28 targets over his last two games.
Chicago blitzes at the fourth-highest rate in the league (40.6%). Blitzes force the ball out quickly, and quick throws in this offense go to JSN first. Jaylon Johnson figures to see a lot of him on the outside, and Johnson is allowing a 70% catch rate and a 123.6 passer rating, both career worsts.
The Bears' run defense has tightened to 87.6 yards allowed per game, and they just added Jeffery Simmons. Seattle's run game has been one of the weaker parts of its offense. With Caleb Williams coming off back-to-back 300-yard games, I don't expect Seattle to sit on the ball.
LIKE if tailing! 🫡
There’s just no way you actually think this lol
It’s happened so much how do you actually think these games are rigged?
I get it as a joke but people who gamble and actually think games are rigged need to stop gambling
Gambling has turned people retarded
The Carolina Panthers went for 2 at 27-19 (never been done in hundreds of years of football) because the total was in play. No X’s and O’s reason, they were instructed to keep the game under 46.5
So glad God gave me discernment to see this satanic horse shit for what it is. #NFLrigged
Bros a cop and doesn’t even know the laws lmfao
Lay for tonight ⤵️
Risking 0.5 units (+690 #Draftkings)
Link in comments 👊
Let’s ride 🫡
🏈 Thursday Night Football Prop #3 🏈
1.11u - McMillan (CAR) o72.5 Receiving Yards (-111 #Draftkings)
#Packers vs #KeepPounding
T-Mac is coming off his quietest game of the year, four catches for 40 yards in a 43-13 blowout where he only logged 38 snaps, and Thursday sets up as the bounce back. Green Bay under Jonathan Gannon sits in zone on 79.3% of snaps and shows two-high on 66.3%, both well above league average, and zone is where McMillan does his damage. In the games Jalen Coker has played this season he's at 2.31 yards per route run against zone compared to 1.72 across all coverages, so this shell lines up with the version of him that produces. The Packers have also allowed the second-most catches to receivers in the league, and Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams just went for 153 and 91 on them in Detroit. They'll be without linebackers Edgerrin Cooper and Zaire Franklin, which softens the middle of the field where his digs and curls live, and Keisean Nixon gives up seven inches to him. Script helps too. Carolina is a 3.5 point road dog down to two healthy corners, so Jordan Love should move the ball and the Panthers will need to throw to keep pace. Bryce Young entered last week leading the NFL in passing yards per game, McMillan has cleared his yardage line in four of his last five as an underdog, and he's over 71.5 in four of six this season. The risk is protection. Taylor Moton is on IR, Damien Lewis is out, and Young has been pressured on a league-high 46.9% of dropbacks with Moton off the field against a front that gets home without blitzing. If the line holds even a little, McMillan gets enough volume in soft zone windows to get there.
🏈 Thursday Night Football Prop #2 🏈
1.25u - Waller (CAR) u2.5 Receptions (-152 Caesars)
#Packers vs #KeepPounding
Waller's early-season volume came from a banged-up receiver room. He saw 8 and 6 targets in Weeks 3 and 4, with Legette sidelined and Coker missing the Detroit game. Since the bye, with Coker healthy, he's been targeted twice in each game and has one catch total. Coker drew 13 targets in Philly and McMillan has 55 on the year. Mitchell Evans also out-snapped both Tremble and Waller last week (28, 27, 25), so Waller is a 46% snap player at this point.
The coverage split is what really tilts this. Against two-high, Waller has been close to invisible: dead last in YPRR at 0.39 and second-to-last in TPRR at 0.08. Against single-high he's a different player (1.95 YPRR, 5th), but Green Bay rarely shows him that look. The Packers are 3rd in two-high rate at 66% and 1st in zone rate at 70%, and they allow just 0.91 YPRR to tight ends (8th fewest). The counting stats back it up: fewest TE yards allowed in the league at 32.9 per game and only 4 TE catches per game total, which Carolina splits three ways.
The targets he does get are low-percentage. He's catching about 62% of his looks on an 8.6 aDOT, so 3 targets only clears the number about a quarter of the time. He needs 4+ to make the over a coin flip, and he's gotten there twice in six games.
Adding these as well on #Draftkings ⤵️
Risking:
.5u
.5u
.25u
.25u
in order that they are pictured 👊
Run this up if you’re tailing 🚀
🏈 Thursday Night Football Prop 🏈
1.13u - Jacob’s (GB) o58.5 Rush Yards (-113 FanDuel)
#Packers vs #KeepPounding
Green Bay has the worst run game in the league and Carolina has the worst run defense in the league, and I think this line is leaning way too hard on the first half of that.
The Panthers allow 153.2 rushing yards a game and 5.2 a carry, and no other team in the NFL is above 150 or above 5.0. Tampa just ran it 49 times for 258 on them while Baker attempted only 11 passes, and the Bears hung 291 on them in Week 1. Six opposing backs have already cleared 60 against this defense. The Bucs got there with gap runs and pullers, and PFF graded Okereke at 35.2 and Devin Lloyd at 42.1 against the run in that game. Jaelan Phillips is ruled out again, and Carolina also played Sunday, so there's almost no practice time to fix the fits and tackling.
Jacobs' debut in Detroit (11 for 36) came after missing the first six games on the commissioner's exempt list, against a much tougher front. He still played 35 snaps and took the only carry inside the five, and caught 5 of 7. Lloyd is averaging 2.6 a carry this year, so the touches should keep tilting toward Jacobs.
His 2025 log is why I'm comfortable here. When he got 17 or more carries in the regular season he went over this number eight for eight, and the only miss in that range all year was 55 yards on 19 carries in the playoff game at Chicago. He cleared 59.5 in all six home games where he stayed healthy, averaging about 82 at Lambeau, and went for 84 and 83 in his two Thursday games. He also ran 17 times for 87 against this same Carolina team last November.
Green Bay is -3.5 with a 47.5 total. Carolina's line is a mess too: Ekwonu is out for the season, Moton just went on IR, and Damien Lewis is out. Bryce Young took five sacks Sunday and the Packers defense ranks 5th in EPA per play. If Green Bay gets a lead, Jacobs gets the fourth quarter.
The real risk is Green Bay's own line. Rhyan and Glover are both ruled out, Monk is on IR, Bako-Bewele is done for the year, and John Williams had never taken an offensive snap before Sunday.
That's a big part of why the Packers sit at 59.9 rushing yards a game, nearly 15 behind anyone else. But Jacobs was 3rd in the league with 1,080 yards after contact in 2024, he said this week the backs have to break tackles and turn 2-yard runs into 4, and this is the softest front he'll see all year.
