Economic & Financial Analyst | CFP® Professional & Founder of Clocktower Financial Consulting, LLC
Charlotte, NC
Joined March 2025
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A market rotation is underway, but the main question is whether the underlying bull market can withstand sticky inflation, rising rates, and the growing scrutiny of AI spending.
Here’s what mattered last week and what I’m watching next.
Hey @Spotify, what is it going to take to get you to PLEASE STOP playing an ad to my children and me that describes murder?! I can only downvote and report it so many times.
How SpaceX's lock-up schedule could fuel months of volatility.
open.substack.com/pub/stephe…
Stephen Kates, CFP® retweeted
I love this chart. It communicates so many important asset allocation lessons:
1) Cash is safe in the short term and very risky in the long term.
2) Stocks are risky in the near term and safe(r) in the long term.
3) Long bonds don't enhance safety much vs intermediate bonds.
4) A blended portfolio enhances intermediate term safety while still generating long term safety.
Producer prices delivered a sharp headline drop, but the underlying picture is less dramatic. PPI fell 0.3% in June, while prices were up 5.5% from a year earlier. Goods prices fell 1.4%, led by energy, while services rose 0.2%.
June CPI was a welcome surprise, coming in much lower than expected. Unfortunately, there are still plenty of reasons inflation might not just go down without a fight.
open.substack.com/pub/stephe…
By September, the year-over-year rate advantage will disappear. Considering rising home prices nationally (NAR reports prices rose 1.8% in June), the affordability advantage lower rates provide is further eroding.
The "3-6 month" rule is a relic of a more stable era.
open.substack.com/pub/stephe…
A shortened edition of weekly market insights for your Independence Day holiday weekend.
open.substack.com/pub/stephe…
If you are in the Sacramento area, I’ll be live on the Armstrong & Getty Show (@AandGShow) in a few minutes talking about yesterday’s tech/market selloff. Come check it out!
Pending home sales up +3.78% vs April and +4.77% vs May 2025.
Both existing and pending sales popped a bit in May. New home sales are out next Wednesday. Maybe we'll get a hat trick.
• Retail Sales: +0.88% MoM (+6.88% YoY)
• Core Retail Sales: +0.82% MoM (+7.32% YoY)
• Real Retail Sales: +0.41% MoM (+2.60% YoY)
Stephen Kates, CFP® retweeted
👉Policymakers have until 2032 to restore solvency to Social Security's trust fund and avoid an automatic 22% benefit cut.
That's within the term of both the next Administration and next class of Senators elected this November.
The longer we wait, the fewer options we'll have left.
Now would be a great time to hear from them on #TrustFundSolutions.
➡️crfb.org/papers/analysis-202….
This is the r/wallstreetbets comment to the SEC on quarterly earnings requirements. Chef's kiss.
Yes, it is a wall of text, but it's worth a read.
The amount of leverage households have today is a fraction of what was in the system in '08. Homeowners have an enormous amount of equity and optionality with selling. Anchored to 2022/23 prices, existing homeowners just don't have to sell for the most part.
The 2008 housing market crash was a once in a lifetime crash. The second largest price correction on record is the correction we are in right now! It's just only showing up in new construction prices (graph below) because existing homeowners don't want to sell.
If you are waiting for the next 2008-like crash in national home prices to buy a home, you are deciding to be a life-long renter (not that there's anything wrong with that.)
