We are not sending our best.
.@PhillyMayor Cherelle Parker tells @EmilyRPeck that the city hopes to launch its historic mortgage program ābefore the end of 2026.ā
āImagine getting a mortgage, a 30-year commitment, with no PMI,ā Parker said, and accessible āwith less-than-perfect credit.ā #AxiosLive
They hate him and his family for lots of reasons those of which are too many to name in this tweet.
With that being said Brazil is a complicated country with even more complicated politics.
They were going to throw him UNDER the jail.
As I reported hours ago, FlƔvio Bolsonaro has arrived safely in United States.
The mastermind behind this operation is U.S. Secretary of State @SecRubio .
From the United States, free and safe, FlƔvio will lead the opposition against Lula.
Stephen Storey retweeted
>be Lula
>get convicted of corruption
>get sentenced to 12 years
>get released by the STF on procedural errors
>never actually acquitted lmao
>beat Jair Bolsonaro in 2022
>Jair gets thrown into jail over an alleged coup attempt
>Congress votes to cut his sentence
>Lula vetoes it
>four years later, face his son
>during a debate, threaten to also lock him up if he loses the election
>election day
>former private lawyer, now STF judge, extends voting by 2 hours nationwide
>request came from Lula's own coalition
>win by 4 million votes in a runoff with no paper trail
>next day, Moraes orders the losing candidate to surrender his passports
>victory speech: "we're going to regulate social media"
>"democracy" lmao
>RIP Brazil
āThe poor donāt eat stocksā thatās what they like to say when you bring these kinds of things up in Brazil.
Stephen Storey retweeted
JUST IN: š§š· Over $200,000,000,000 wiped out from the Brazil stock market at open after Lula da Silva wins Brazil's presidential election, defeating FlĆ”vio Bolsonaro.
I called this election in March bro
You gotta get up to the northeast more often. Youād have known it was going to be Lula
Brazil votes today, and I'm putting my final number on the record.
FlƔvio Bolsonaro 51.5%.
Lula 48.5%.
I ran today's vote 1,000,000 times using the final polls from 20 pollsters.
FlƔvio wins 81% of them.
On Friday, my call was 51.6% to 48.4%, also at 81%.
Two more days of polls moved it by one tenth of a point.
On Friday I made a second call, that the final poll from the pollster founded in 1983 would show FlƔvio between 50% and 52%.
It came in at 51%.
The polls themselves show a near tie, with 17 of the 20 pollsters putting FlƔvio ahead.
My model gives him more room because Brazil's leading polls underestimated the right in each of the last three first rounds.
This year they missed FlƔvio's first-round margin by 4.1 points.
The model assumes a third of that miss happens again.
If the polls are exactly right this time, FlƔvio's chance drops to 68%.
Lula wins if the result lands more than 1.7 points to his side of the polls, which happens about one time in five.
Betting markets ended up in the same place, near 80%.
Polls close at 5 p.m. BrasĆlia time, and the count starts right after.
How the model works, and what Monday morning costs either way, is in my analysis below.
