Steve Ruddock

Interesting wrinkle of the MGC Bill Simmons stuff today is they certainly want to interrogate the operator, but the commissioners also seemed very intent on reprimanding Simmons and the daughter's boyfriend for breaking the rules as well.

If one wants to make a case for markets, focus on favorites would not be the way to do it; look at races that both models and markets got wrong but to different degrees, like MS-Sen where models gave Colum 2-4 percent and markets gave 16, this is far more interesting

Pokémon cards being used to get around gambling laws?! 💀 Texas deputies raided 7 game rooms in San Antonio, taking 20+ people into custody and seizing nearly 600 machines. Instead of cash payouts, winners received Pokémon and sports cards, which could reportedly be sold for cash at a business next door.

Sneak peak of our "field" feature that we will roll out for the Senate, House, and Governor races on election day. The position of the circle on the field indicates the price of the favored candidate, and the size of the growing circles indicates the volume of that market.

Release: The National Council on Problem Gambling announced today Charles H. Jeffers II, will join the advocacy organization interim executive director. Jeffers is the founder/principal consultant of the Jeffers Group, with more than 30 years of nonprofit executive leadership.

.@CFTC and National Basketball Association Sign MOU to Protect Integrity in Professional Basketball: cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressRele…

Prediction markets aren't "right" or "wrong" - it's the wrong framing. They're a real time price. 20% chance events happen 1 in 5 times.

Apologies for the ‘it was better in the past’ story but.. From the 1880s through the 1910s, some packs of cigarettes included a baseball card as an add-on. In 1933, Goudey recognized the appeal of baseball cards to kids and began selling packs containing one piece of gum and one card. Gradually, cards became the focus and the gum became secondary. Given the appeal to kids and that it did have a stick of gum, general retailers sold baseball cards in the candy aisle. By the late 1940s, manufacturers were selling packs containing multiple cards but still just one piece of gum. Topps eventually established a virtual monopoly on baseball cards sold alone or with gum, which lasted until 1981. After a long antitrust battle, two competitors found a way around Topps' exclusive contracts by including a sticker or puzzle piece rather than gum. By 1992, MLB decided that no insert was necessary. The stickers and puzzles were superfluous, while the gum could actually damage the cards. Manufacturers abandoned these extras. Still, sports cards continued to be sold in candy aisles until roughly the turn of the century when stores increasingly gave them their own section. The first box of baseball cards I bought, at age 13, was 1987 Topps for $12. Last week, for old times sake, I bought a vintage box of the same on eBay for $70. The box was delivered while I was out of town but I couldn’t find it when I got home. Last night, when I went to get a piece of chocolate, I discovered the box in the candy drawer. I was confused. Turns out my housekeeper had unpacked it but didn't know what the box was, at least until she noticed the words “bubble gum cards” prominently displayed on the box. Without realizing it, she'd put the box exactly where it would have belonged a generation ago: with the candy. It reminded me of a simpler time when kids opened packs to complete a set rather than chase autographs and pieces of game-worn jerseys. When $12 bought 36 packs instead of one. When the thrill was finding your favorite player or the star rookie, not calculating what a card might be worth. When there weren’t professional grading services. And when a stick of gum was still part of the experience.

DraftKings CEO: We’re Already ‘Clear No. 3’ in Prediction Markets covers.com/industry/draftkin… @Covers

Robins on Florida & @HardRockBet Lawsuit Why $DKNG the target? "For whatever reason they decided to make us the target. It is very interesting that there's a number of prediction operators in the state we're the ones we got singularly got sued."

I’m all for polls and statistics, but this one is super misleading. IMO this is a poorly designed poll that mostly captures framing effects and ignorance. The question explicitly frames prediction markets as “wager[ing] money” and asks if that is “a form of gambling.” That wording almost guarantees a high “yes” number. Meanwhile, ~90% of respondents have never used one, so most answers reflect media coverage rather than informed judgment.

Breaking news from @jstein_sun at the Washington Sun this morning: the FTC is starting to look into the online sports betting industry. washingtonsun.com/administra…

I feel like I am going to have to continue to tweet this, but prediction markets are not gambling. There is no house, you aren't playing against the operator, these platforms have no vested interest in the outcome, and prediction markets don't limit/ban users for "winning too much"

DraftKings and its CEO Jason Robins have been sued by the Seminole Tribe of Florida, which holds exclusive rights to operate online and mobile sports betting in the state. The idea is that $DKNG is illegally offering sports betting in Florida via its prediction-market product.

This is remarkable. Kalshi & Polymarket have 52% of the downloads of the Top 10. I think what a lot of people are missing is that these apps are less intimidating to general bettor and the overall interface is more graphically entertaining. (Data per @sam_mcquill)