Stuart Wemyss

Over the past decade, Australian shares returned about 9.4% a year. Global developed market shares returned around 14%. Past returns matter less than future ones, and the structure of the ASX is the bigger concern. Banks and miners make up around 60% of the index, and the 10 largest companies account for half of it. Technology, likely the biggest driver of growth over the coming decades, makes up just 2%. Many of our largest companies also pay out most of their profits as dividends rather than reinvesting for growth, often in industries with limited competition. That doesn’t mean selling your Australian shares. But it does raise the question of where your next dollar should go. At ProSolution Private Office, we’ve been progressively directing more of our clients’ new investments into global shares. Read the full blog: prosolution.com.au/is-the-au…

Overall lending for new homes (both investors and owner-occupiers) declined 5.4% in the June quarter. Investor loans for new homes did rise slightly, but the overall numbers matter more for actual housing supply, and they are worse.

Australian 10-year government bonds are yielding around 5.2%, their highest starting yield in about 15 years. At first glance, it looks like a good time to lock in some duration. After working through the numbers, I don’t think it is. The extra return you earn for taking interest rate risk hasn’t disappeared, but it now has a stronger competitor. A decade ago, a long-dated bond fund was one of the few ways for retail investors to earn more than a term deposit. Today, there are low-duration, investment-grade alternatives offering comparable or higher yields with far less sensitivity to rate changes. It’s also worth remembering that bonds don’t always protect you when shares fall. In 2022, both fell together because the shock was inflation, and inflation is closer to the risk we face today. For now, we’re keeping duration low in the defensive part of our clients’ portfolios at ProSolution Private Office. Read the full blog: prosolution.com.au/should-yo…

Industry research suggests financial advice adds up to 5.5% a year to returns. More than half of that is credited to behavioural coaching. I’ve always been sceptical of these figures. They assume that without an adviser, you’d panic in downturns, chase returns and hold too much cash. Many investors do. But if you already follow a clear, rules-based investment framework, much of that value is already yours. What rules can’t replace is knowledge. A rule can remind you to review your super contributions each year, but it can’t tell you the right amount for your income and circumstances. And the real test of discipline isn’t what you say you’d do in a crash. It’s what you actually did in March 2020. At ProSolution Private Office, we help clients work out honestly where advice adds value and where it doesn’t. Read the full blog: prosolution.com.au/does-disc…

Tax the hell out of mum and dad, resident Australian investors and give tax breaks to non-residents. That’s their solution! Insane. theage.com.au/politics/victo…

To spend $120,000 a year from age 60, you need about $3 million if you never want to touch your capital. If you're comfortable running it down to zero by 90, the figure is closer to $2.1 million. Most super calculators can't tell you whether you're on track. They ignore investments held outside super, especially geared property, and they don't handle retiring before 60. In this episode, I walk through a set of tables you can use to add up your super, ETFs, and investment property and see where you'll land. Listen to the episode: lnkd.in/gR6gSGDm See the tables and worked examples: lnkd.in/gGGMjhE2

FYI @PeteWargent 👍 news.com.au/travel/melbourne…

What if higher interest rates simply don’t slow spending as effectively as they used to? Older households hold less debt and more savings. Mortgage offsets have grown to around $340bn. Many borrowers have absorbed higher repayments from savings rather than cutting spending. That may help explain why inflation has proved so persistent. My base case remains a 4%–5% cash rate for an extended period. Investment strategies shouldn’t rely on large rate cuts to make the numbers work.

Underlying inflation fell to 2.7% in mid-2025. It has since climbed back to 3.6%, and the Reserve Bank has raised rates three times this year. In 2023, I wrote that inflation and interest rates could stay higher for longer than most people expected. The research behind that view showed that once inflation passes 8%, it usually takes many years to settle. Newer studies suggest inflation targeting can shorten that period. Both point to the same lesson: persistent inflation tends to have several causes that reinforce each other. My base case is a cash rate between 4% and 5% for an extended period. I also expect future cuts to be smaller and slower than in past cycles. If your property or share strategy relies on rate cuts to make the numbers work, it's worth stress-testing it now. This is exactly the kind of scenario planning we do with clients at ProSolution Private Office. Read the full blog: prosolution.com.au/why-inter…

Thank you to everyone who listens to Investopoly. Your support has helped make it the highest-rated Australian finance podcasts: 4.9 stars from 557 Apple Podcasts ratings and 5.0 stars from 336 Spotify ratings. Campbell and I appreciate every listen, question and review. Thank you. 🙏

In Melbourne, they aren’t satisfied until your case is either damaged or late, but preferably both! 😳

Quality decides whether an asset is worth owning. Price decides when to buy and how much. Asset prices tend to overshoot their fundamentals in both directions before drifting back towards their long-term trend. If you buy a quality asset below that trend, you can benefit twice. You get growth in its underlying value, and you get the market repricing it back to normal. If you buy it expensive, some of that growth can be cancelled out as the price settles. With property, the entry price matters most because you commit a large amount of capital at a single point in time. After that, the job is to hold. As a rule of thumb, the final third of a multi-decade holding period produces more than half of the total capital growth. Selling during a flat patch can mean missing the best years. This is how we build portfolios for our clients at ProSolution Private Office: quality first, then price. Read the full blog here: prosolution.com.au/how-to-as…

Australia has a productivity crisis - meanwhile Melbourne has a public holiday on Friday because there’s an AFL game on Saturday! Just another moronic decision by Dan Andrews - someone that has never ran a business or worked in the private sector!

Another perfect day in Melbourne @PeteWargent. Go Dockers!!! 🤪

The RBA’s job is to set monetary policy given the fiscal settings the government has actually announced, not to shop alternative fiscal packages the government has not chosen. Treating public demand as an exogenous input taken from the latest budgets keeps the Bank out of the political argument over whether spending should be higher or lower. Most inflation-targeting central banks operate the same way.

We’ve argued for years that Australians should invest more internationally. Here’s another reason. Australia’s GDP is growing, but productivity isn’t. GDP per hour worked fell 0.2% over the year to June. Population growth can make an economy bigger. Productivity is what makes people wealthier. If your salary, business, property and share portfolio are all Australian, you’re concentrating your financial future in the same economy. International diversification isn’t betting against Australia. It’s reducing concentration risk. prosolution.com.au/australia…

The proposed family trust distribution tax is a game changer! I covered this today. prosolution.com.au/family-tr…

A plan that is 80% right and implemented will beat a plan that is 100% right and never leaves your notebook. Research past the point of decision is just procrastination dressed up as diligence. Watch the full video here: youtu.be/spTCsue9TdE This theme comes from the execution chapter of my new book, Wealth by Design. More on what it covers: prosolution.com.au/wealth-by… Or buy it on Amazon: amazon.com.au/Wealth-Design-…

These Industry Super Fund ads are very good. Important to educate Australians about how to avoid dodgy super switching campaigns. Why hasn’t ASIC done something like this!! Do something useful with the millions it raises from the industry through its taxes/levies! industrysuper.com/campaigns/…