Whatever the opposite of 'laser eyes' is...
Joined March 2007
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S&P 500's June 2021 peak PE at 30.8 (99th %tile, below Dec 1999's 35.8 an all time record which would put $SPX +5000) such high #valuation corresponds to poor long term returns - a slightly negative 10 year annualized total return!
chart via @LeutholdGroup
ICYMI: Ray Dalio gives a quick overview of his judgement re current #valuation and whether we are in a stock market bubble:
youtu.be/X2ag_mfUgBU
Jeremy Grantham of GMO recently spoke with @johnauthers on the same topic with less equivocation: "The last 12 months have been a classic finale to an 11-year bull market"
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
NFIB small business #sentiment 99.6 - notice the response regarding expectations of the economy improving in the lower panel
ICYMI: David Rosenberg @EconguyRosie on the #inflation vs #deflation debate & his recommendation of long 30 year Treasury bond, potential +25% return over 1 year
youtu.be/cI1TyZF9KA4
"The Cleveland Fed model’s r-squared [based on monthly data back to 2003] was highest at 23%, followed by the University of Michigan consumer survey at 20%, and the five-year breakeven inflation rate at 0%."
marketwatch.com/story/is-inf…
#Bitcoin, devoid of any fundamentals & inherent value, is as pure a manifestation of the aggregate financial id as we'll ever encounter: chart of Goldman Sachs Risk Appetite metric compared to the price of Bitcoin (YoY).
GMO cautions re #valuation by comparing EPS vs prices for 1990's market and today's
EPS forecasts are 2-year forecasts. In the first chart, EPS forecasts grew at an annualized rate of 11.1%; in the second chart, EPS forecasts grew at an annualized rate of 6.4%.
NDR Daily Trading Sentiment 67.8%
NDR Crowd #Sentiment Poll 71.5%
Both are above extreme optimism demarcation lines with negative 1 year fwd expected returns.
Investors Intelligence weekly #sentiment survey of newsletters shows little change:
bulls 54.5% (up by almost 0.9% pts from last wk)
bears 16.2% (slight decline of 0.3% pts)
correction 29.3%
chart via @WillieDelwiche
“Whenever there is an immediate drawdown in equities, retail comes in immediately to buy the dip. People default to ETFs as a way to buy the dip. And recently retail has been buying more ETFs than any other segment of the equity population.”
ft.com/content/796b4c18-dcf4…
TD Ameritrade's IMX (proprietary metric of client activity) at highest level since late 2017.
#sentiment
A somewhat similar picture via @sentimentrader using Justin Mamis' #sentiment cycle (featured in his book "The Nature of Risk")
Goldman Sachs' survey of 25 CIOs shows that #Bitcoin is their least favorite asset class
This stands in stark contrast to the larger survey conducted by Bank of America ML GFMS (May 2021) where long #Bitcoin was deemed the most crowded trade:
Below is the list of historical 'most crowded' trade nominees. #Bitcoin lead in January 2021 previous as well as September & December 2017:
