True North is a team of investors and analysts exploring the outer edges of Bitcoin, digital credit, finance and macro economics.
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Joined October 2024
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Allard Peng says Digital Credit investors are being overcompensated for the risk they’re taking right now.
@stonychambers is back on The Income Show with @IIICapital to break down what’s holding STRC below par, where digital credit goes next, and why he’s still very bullish on Bitcoin.
Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
1:21 - Why STRC Isn’t at Par
4:09 - Is Leverage Back?
7:14 - Buybacks vs. Dividends
11:05 - Too Many Buybacks?
15:55 - When Yield Is Too High
18:51 - The Future of Digital Credit
21:29 - Digital Money and Digital Yield
30:37 - Fixed vs. Variable
40:13 - Measuring Digital Credit Risk
46:02 - Bitcoin Outlook
51:09 - Closing Thoughts
$BTC $MSTR $STRC $ASST $SATA $SATS
YouTube: youtu.be/RITNd4q5tFU
Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/57vRVN…
Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
Fountain: fountain.fm/show/uTxrwNnT0GK…
True North Episode 83: The Frontier of Credit xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1aJbdEawo…
Corporate Credit issued against crypto since August 2020.
Includes:
1. Debt issued
2. Preferred Issued
3. Hybrid (convertible bonds) issued
4. Retired debt and preferred equity (buybacks / refi's)
Credit is building on Bitcoin.
135 Digital Credit dividends have come due since March 2025.
135 have been paid.
STRK: 7/7
STRF: 6/6
STRD: 5/5
STRE: 4/4
STRC: 18/18
SATA: 95/95
SATS: first payment Nov 9
Quarterly. Monthly. Semi-monthly. Every business day.
Zero missed.
Digital Credit is Bitcoin, refined.
2026 YTD annualized volatility:
ASST + MSTR: 95%
Bitcoin: 45%
SATA + STRC: 24%
Same raw material.
Structured finance sends the volatility to the common equity and strips it out of Digital Credit:
True North retweeted
I'll be on stage. Hope to see you there.
You ever had a conference with a range day? I didn't think so.
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Designed to challenge you, sharpen your skills, and push you beyond your comfort zone.
Real competition. Elite instruction. Serious skill development.
This isn't a day at the range. It's a mission.
November 9-10 | Nashville, TN
Think you've got what it takes? Let's find out.
Register now for the Bitcoin Veterans Summit and secure your spot at the Range Event.
bitcoinveterans.org/summit20…
Two $BTC treasury companies can trade at different multiples for years.
@GrainofSaltSF uses $TSLA and $GOOG as the analogy for Strive $ASST and Strategy $MSTR. Tesla’s premium has persisted through both multiple expansion and compression.
“You guys will run two different multiples in the future... and that’s totally fine.”
Bitcoin is down 6.6% YTD.
Every Digital Credit instrument is up.
SATA +13.8%
STRC +9.4%
STRF +9.4%
STRD +5.4%
STRK +3.3%
Bitcoin underneath with the volatility stripped.
And every dividend paid.
Digital Credit is going global.
@AdamBLiv chats with @asjwebley on Bitcoin, Digital Credit, amplification, and MORE, Smarter Web Company's Preferred Shares.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:10 Why Smarter Web Chose Preferred Equity
04:55 Digital Credit Origins
06:45 How MORE Works
10:39 Investor Protections and Debt
12:38 Total Return vs. Bitcoin Per Share
15:35 Amplification and the 35% Cap
20:27 When to Add Amplification
27:40 Reflexivity and mNAV
31:19 Letting the Machine Work
36:30 Building Trust in Digital Credit
38:01 MORE Launch and FTSE 250 Goal
40:48 Final Thoughts
Amplification gets harder to increase as it rises.
@PunterJeff explains why moving from 50% to 75% amplification requires significantly more capital than it might seem.
“Amplification scales hyperbolically.”
Bitcoin volatility does not equal Bitcoin risk.
Since Jan 1, 2020, Bitcoin has:
- Compounded at 43.4% a year (an 11.4x return)
- Swung with 61% annualized volatility
- Fallen 77% peak to trough in 2021–22, and 53% from its all-time high
Now look at the 200-week moving average:
- Up 23.6% over the last 12 months
- Up 46.2% a year since 2020 ($5,059 to $66,512)
- Down weeks since 2020: zero.
354 straight weekly gains.
Price is the noise. The 200-week is the signal:
Trey Sellers says he borrowed against his house at 5% to collect 10% on $STRC. Now it pays 12%.
@ts_hodl joins @IIICapital on The Income Show to discuss how Bitcoin changes the FIRE math, why an 8% withdrawal rate may be conservative, his HELOC carry trade into STRC, why you should never pay off your mortgage early, whether digital credit is suppressing Bitcoin's price, and why $83K Bitcoin is bullish.
0:00 - Intro
1:19 - Investing Before Bitcoin & FIRE Method
8:04 - Swapping Index Funds for Bitcoin
10:02 - Is the FIRE Movement Growing?
13:04 - How Bitcoin Changes the FIRE Math
16:32 - The Case for an 8% Withdrawal Rate
21:18 - Growth vs. Income Investing
24:21 - The Tax Advantage of Digital Credit
25:44 - Volatility Is Why People Buy Bitcoin
29:14 - Why Starting Early Matters
30:25 - Borrowing Against His Home to Buy STRC
34:46 - Why You Should Keep Your Mortgage
39:25 - Why He Trusted Strategy to Pay the Dividend
45:17 - Is Digital Credit Suppressing Bitcoin's Price?
49:44 - Why $83K Bitcoin Is Bullish
52:10 - Closing Thoughts
$BTC $MSTR $ASST $STRC $SATA
YouTube: youtu.be/PqHak6JGuMA
Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/57vRVN…
Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
Fountain: fountain.fm/episode/vrjq6lNR…