love word clouds... this is last four $HAL earnings calls. Full deck in comments.
Majors need (on average) ~2% to get back to their 52-week highs. Clean Tech needs ~111%. 📈
That gap was the starting point for our latest work, 'Ceilings & Crowds.' We looked at ~200 energy and utility names across six sectors, measured how far each sits from its 52-week and all-time highs, then layered on our weekly shares-on-loan data.
A few things that stood out to us:
• Majors & Refiners: 15 of 18 trade within ~5% of their 52-week highs, and 13 of 18 within ~5% of their all-time highs.
• Midstream and Utilities both need a median ~14%, but in our view Utilities are a rates story right now, not a defensive one.
• Clean Tech sits a median ~85% below its all-time highs, and half the group trades within ~5% of its 52-week low.
• Shorts are riding the trend, not fighting it: Clean Tech's median SOL utilization is ~25% vs. ~3-10% for every other sector.
Truth be told, none of this is rocket science. But most coverage looks at one sector at a time, and we believe putting all six side by side tells you a lot more, especially when it comes to whose stock is strong enough to pay for a deal. 🤝
Curious how others are thinking about it: When buyer and target both sit near their highs, does the 52-week high still matter in the negotiation, or does it all come down to the exchange ratio?
#EFT #natgas #Oil #OOTT #energy
Link to full deck in comments...
Curious what people think happens here…
**Who writes the check for $DVN?**
Truth be told, we see zero chance Devon (DVN; N/R) stays in its current form. The activists have lit the fuse, the #EagleFord is reportedly in the market (per Bloomberg), and the real question is who can actually afford the rest. Full note on website: theschneidercapitalgroup.com…
So we built the model to answer it. 30+ tabs of Excel joy, and it's now live on our website (along with all our other models):
👉 theschneidercapitalgroup.com…
**A few highlights:**
🔹 **Three tests per buyer.** Value-neutral, returns hurdle and per-share accretion for six potential buyers. In our view, the test that matters is the one each board actually gets paid on.
🔹 **The tax bill travels with the assets.** We rebuilt Devon's tax basis by basin. It's why a piecemeal break-up loses to a clean takeout, and why selling the Eagle Ford first isn't 'free'.
🔹 **Inventory life is the swing factor.** Every returns-based price hinges on how long today's well quality lasts. Shave a few years off and the leaderboard reshuffles.
🔹 **Basin-by-basin sum of the parts,** with a buyer universe for each piece.
🔹 **Bottom-up synergies,** risk-weighted and net of the Devon / Coterra 'self-help' already in consensus.
🔹 **Financing, regulatory and fit** checks for every buyer, not just 'can they afford it on paper'.
🔹 **The standalone case too.** What a pure-play Delaware Devon has to re-rate to for the status quo to make sense (spoiler: it's a stretch).
🔹 **'Dark-horse' buyer dynamics (this was a fun one).
It's fully dynamic, so if you disagree with our assumptions, change them...
We believe this one is going to be fun to watch. Interested in your thoughts!
#Energy #OilandGas #MergersAndAcquisitions #CapitalMarkets #Permian #Bakken #Marcellus #EFT
**Who writes the check for $DVN?**
Truth be told, we see zero chance Devon (DVN; N/R) stays in its current form. The activists have lit the fuse, the #EagleFord is reportedly in the market (per Bloomberg), and the real question is who can actually afford the rest. Full note on website: theschneidercapitalgroup.com…
So we built the model to answer it. 30+ tabs of Excel joy, and it's now live on our website (along with all our other models):
👉 theschneidercapitalgroup.com…
**A few highlights:**
🔹 **Three tests per buyer.** Value-neutral, returns hurdle and per-share accretion for six potential buyers. In our view, the test that matters is the one each board actually gets paid on.
🔹 **The tax bill travels with the assets.** We rebuilt Devon's tax basis by basin. It's why a piecemeal break-up loses to a clean takeout, and why selling the Eagle Ford first isn't 'free'.
🔹 **Inventory life is the swing factor.** Every returns-based price hinges on how long today's well quality lasts. Shave a few years off and the leaderboard reshuffles.
🔹 **Basin-by-basin sum of the parts,** with a buyer universe for each piece.
🔹 **Bottom-up synergies,** risk-weighted and net of the Devon / Coterra 'self-help' already in consensus.
🔹 **Financing, regulatory and fit** checks for every buyer, not just 'can they afford it on paper'.
🔹 **The standalone case too.** What a pure-play Delaware Devon has to re-rate to for the status quo to make sense (spoiler: it's a stretch).
🔹 **'Dark-horse' buyer dynamics (this was a fun one).
It's fully dynamic, so if you disagree with our assumptions, change them...
We believe this one is going to be fun to watch. Interested in your thoughts!
#Energy #OilandGas #MergersAndAcquisitions #CapitalMarkets #Permian #Bakken #Marcellus #EFT
Latest thoughts on $dvn… #eft #oott #EnergyMarkets
One buyer stands out. Any guesses??
theschneidercapitalgroup.com
what are people's thoughts on this? #eft #oott #natgas
full caveat this was just for fun, also implying we have a low bar for what fun is... this isn't really a call on just a simple mtm on the gas biz but rather will the gas biz be 'unshackled' and be better positioned for the structural growth thesis.
theschneidercapitalgroup.com…
This was a fun one… we backed into actual sponsors returns (used loosely) here for those who are curious…
theschneidercapitalgroup.com
#eft #oott #natgas #energy
Why was the toothbrush invented in West Virginia? <drumroll> because otherwise it would have been called the ‘teethbrush’ … and a WV local told that one! In any case…
Beautiful state - John Denver got it right - had a great time and a chance to stop at my first Buc-ee’s on way home… think was in VA tho by James Madison. Great lavatories!
#eft #oott #energy
this is a fun one... our bar for fun is low. Force-ranking 15 potential buyers for $SHEL U.S. chemicals business.
theschneidercapitalgroup.com
