'Ending' the State Pension triple lock: what is really likely to happen? Many are confused, and think the State Pension won't rise. Actually the change is subtle, it's about loosening, not ending, one of the three locks - the link to average earnings. So I want to try to explain as simply as I can. CURRENT TRIPLE LOCK The State Pension(s) rise each April by highest of: - 2.5% - CPI inflation - Average earnings growth [State Pension(s) as it applies to the new State Pension and older basic State Pension. Though not the old additional State Pensions (eg SERPS) and a few other additional pension which only go up with CPI. The new system will likely be similar.] PROPOSED NEW SYSTEM The State Pension(s) will rise each April by at least the higher of: - 2.5% - CPI inflation The 'at least' is because it will also rise due to average earnings, but not specifically for that year instead over a longer period. Yet the exact mechanisms aren't set out, so I'm going to use one example of a way it could work, where the rise keeps up with average earnings since the system start date of 2030, as I think its easier to understand. HOW THIS COULD WORK IN PRACTICE Here's a made up example to set it out... Current System: Year 1: Inflation 3%, earnings up 2%. Pension rises 3%. Year 2: Inflation 4%, earnings up 6%. Pension rises 6%. Year 3: Inflation 3%, earnings up 1%. Pension rises 3%. TOTAL RISE: 12.5% over the 3yrs as the increases compound. New system: Year 1: Inflation 3%, earnings up 2%. So it rises 3%. Year 2: Inflation 4%, earnings up 6%. A rise of only 4% would be a total rise since the start of 7.1%, yet that's less than the total rise in average earnings of 8.1%. So the Pension would rise about 5% that year to match the total rise in average earnings. Year 3: Inflation 3%, earnings up 1%, so it rises by 3%. TOTAL RISE: 11.4% over the three years ------------------ I hope that makes sense, again this is just a rough example to give you an idea as best as I understand it, but I think I'm in the ballpark. I will try and do a video on it if time as that may make it easier to understand.