Currently long the $iwm into tomorrow's fed meeting and I expect continuation.

SemiAnalysis's internal AI spend shows Opus 5.5 is gaining at Astra’s expense, according to President Doug O’Laughlin, who asks if OpenAI is "cooked" as the number 2 in everything “Honestly, okay, actually, let’s talk about, look, you know what we haven’t talked about is OpenAI. Is OpenAI kind of cooked? Because Astra is their best, maybe their Bel model, like, improves or something like that." "But like, where is OpenAI? Because it’s actually, you know, Opus 5.5 accelerating is like pretty, it comes at someone’s direct expense, and like, at least within the SemiAnalysis spend, it’s very clear who it is. It’s Astra." "What do we think about OpenAI? Because they’re kind of in, they’re caught in the middle of everything. They’re in the middle between consumer on Gemini and Meta, right? They are like between Anthropic and open source models for enterprise. And they’re just like kind of literally number two in everything, which in markets is the single worst place to be.”

Breaking: Meta plans to raise up to $95 billion in waves of stock offerings to fund its massive investments in AI infrastructure on.wsj.com/4zc7kwY

Someone just DOUBLED DOWN on $QQQ puts into the pump

Dylan Patel explains why he thinks substrates are "the biggest bottleneck of all the bottlenecks," ahead of memory and optics, and bigger than power, land, or tools “Yes, I think on the semiconductor side, the biggest constraint, of course, besides memory, is substrates, PCB materials, substrate materials, all of these components were severely under-invested in. Much of the supply chains that create the materials in Japan, those firms are sort of a lot more conservative and unwilling to invest heavily in capacity." "And so we’ve seen, you know, tremendous bottlenecks there in terms of what can be made over the next two years, you know, both for accelerators as well as CPUs and every other component in the supply chain. So substrates is, I think, the biggest bottleneck of all the bottlenecks, including, you know, land, power, shell, semiconductors, tools." "I’d say the next bottleneck would be, of course, memory. And then following that, there’s a lot of bottlenecks around the desire to ramp optics to a really, really large degree, right, with co-package optics or near-package optics. There’s humongous constraints in ramping that. You know, we just simply cannot ramp, you know, even if everyone wanted to do CPO in 2028, or even one major company wanted to do CPO in 2028, they could not satisfy their volumes in terms of lasers, in terms of fiber attach, in terms of all these different components that go into it.” _______ Link and breakdown of the full panel with Dylan Patel and Stacy Rasgon: firesidealpha.substack.com/p…

I think we’re going to see a lot of stranded compute in partially complete data centers

Jensen Huang says at Nvidia GTC that AI data centers shifting to optical networking could drive a 15x increase in optical volume. “Scale up is going to become optical.” “I'm fairly certain the number of switches we need is going to increase.” “And I'm fairly certain, the amount of optics that we need in the future will be, you know, several orders of magnitude more.”