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Shouldn't get too excited about the U.S jobs data, layoffs don't happen as much around holiday season- the next 3 months are the ones to watch.
Prem Raja FX retweeted
⚠️ Pound gives its verdict on Tory leadership race. Sunak good. Johnson bad. Another $GBP short squeeze on the cards tomorrow as risks of another Boris term gets priced out. Positioning is a lot cleaner though so any rally might be short-lived
Prem Raja FX retweeted
If a new Chancellor is appointed today, it'll be the fourth person to hold that office in the last 101 days.
Political stability well and truly gone...
Prem Raja FX retweeted
⚠️ Strong chance dip buyers emerge for $GBP this week. Markets are pricing in a BoP / fiscal crisis narrative already on the back of Truss. But sensible govt policy that eases stagflation crisis + reduces the need for sharp BoE hikes + lowers deep recession risks = good for pound
PUTIN: TROOPS THAT 'LIBERATED' LUHANSK REGION SHOULD REST BUT OTHER MILITARY UNITS SHOULD CONTINUE FIGHTING
Prem Raja FX retweeted
BREAKING: Results of the confidence vote in Boris Johnson.
Confidence 211
No Confidence 148
A worse result than Theresa May suffered.
Prem Raja FX retweeted
Even after the PMIs, markets are pricing in a 60bp rise in Bank Rate by August, implying near certainty that the MPC will hike by 25bp at its next two meetings, and a small chance of a monster 50bp hike. The risk now surely is the MPC bottles it at one of those meetings.
Prem Raja FX retweeted
The PMI's collapse in May brings it closer to levels seen when the MPC has cut Bank Rate than hiked it before. The resilience of the price and employment balances likely will persuade the MPC to hike again in Jun or Aug, but the rapid hikes envisaged by markets now are v unlikely
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