Macro calls with levels. Rates, liquidity, metals, oil.
Global Markets
Joined December 2018
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Inflation already turned: US CPI is back to 4.5%, up from 2.7% in December.
If the war grinds on, I think the second wave builds toward 6 to 7% and the Fed is forced back toward hiking. Base case is sticky near 4%.
More detailed scenario breakdown available for subscribers.
Yesterday the US and Iran traded strikes. Today Nasdaq rips. Not crazy. Markets price surprise, not war.
Oil stayed calm, so the market read it as the last round before a deal.
The one thing I'm watching: does the rally hold through the next strike?
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Semis are 20-40% off their highs and it already feels like a crash.
In real bear markets they've tended to go back to the 200-week average. From here that's NVDA -34%, AMD -56%, MU -64%.
I don't think that happens now. I think it happens in 2027.
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Nvidia's CEO admits an affair with an alleged Chinese spy. The board opens an investigation.
In January Democrats take over Congress. I already expected AI hearings. Now they have the perfect reason.
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Silver to $200 and gold to $7,000 in 3-6 months.
The driver is supposed to be falling yields and the dollar at 82-84. That's an 18% dollar drop in six months. Plaza Accord territory.
The Fed hiked in September. I don't see it.
David Hunter sees gold reaching $7,000 an ounce and silver climbing to $200 over the next three to six months. He believes precious metals likely carved out a major low after recent selling washed out bullish sentiment, pointing to silver's prior surge from the $40s to $122 in less than three months as precedent. In his view, falling bond yields will push the U.S. dollar down toward 82 to 84, fueling the move. He expects this next rally to deliver higher highs and an even steeper advance than the last.
DIX at 37.9%. Lowest in two years.
My timeline is going all in on the dip. The big money in dark pools isn't.
When those two disagree, I know which side I'd rather be on.
When my timeline fills up with fund screenshots and P&L brags, I think we're late in the cycle.
In January a Democratic Congress takes over. I expect hearings, subpoenas and heavy pressure on AI.
One more reason I think the bear market starts in 2027.
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The AI trade died on October 30.
Most people just haven't noticed yet.
SanDisk -17%. AMD -13%. Nasdaq 100 in correction.
There will be bounces. I think every one of them gets sold.
Democrats take Congress in January. That gives Trump a two-month window before his hands get tied on Iran.
Oil just priced the war as over. I think the window is the risk nobody's pricing.
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Oil -8.48% in one day. Not OPEC. Not supply. An election.
The market is pricing the end of the Iran war like it's already signed.
Nothing is signed.
Watch out for that midterm rally.
“Deals,” “talks with Iran,” and everything in between will be on the table leading up to November 3.