I am inscrutable, so keep your scrutles to yourself. Nothing I post should be taken as investment advice. Every post should be assumed to end 'IMHO"
San Miguel
Joined May 2022
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DAVID A. HUNTER. A thread.
Is David A. Hunter (@daveHContrarian) a lovely old granddad who wants to hand out free money?
NOPE.
Hunter is an evil old grifter and convicted financial wrongdoer, who has only one interest: sucking $1000 out of your pocket.
Let's see the evidence.
TheSphinx 🐿️ retweeted
US Budget Deficit Explodes: Worst October On Record On Historic Surge In Defense Spending; 28% Of All Taxes Go To Pay Interest zerohedge.com/markets/us-bud…
TheSphinx 🐿️ retweeted
People selling their gold don't know what they are doing
Let's for a moment forget the price of gold and just look at the fundamentals.
Global sovereign debt markets are collapsing... This is the foundation of our whole financial system.
Higher interest rates don't make bonds more attractive when governments are drowning in debt...
They make their debt problems worse.
Repeated weaponization of the dollar system has led central banks to pivot from USTs to gold as their preferred reserve asset.
At the same time, China is internationalizing the yuan via gold.
We are in the middle of 2 major wars which have the potential to get much bigger... Wars are inflationary = good for gold.
At the same time, governments are running massive deficits with no political appetite to cut spending.
Debt is rising... Interest expenses are rising... Spending is rising
And the higher yields go, the more unsustainable the debt becomes.
Eventually something has to give.
Either governments default outright or central banks step in and suppress yields while inflation eats away the debt.
Neither outcome is bearish for gold.
So forget whether gold is up or down 3% on the day.
The fundamental case for owning gold has arguably never been stronger.
We don't own enough gold for what's coming.
2nd leg is usually steep and higher then first, like this:
🔥"SILVER'S BEAR MARKET IS BOTTOMING OUT...WAVE 5 TO TAKE SILVER TO $160-$200"
The Elliott Wave bros believe that silver is bottoming NOW, & its next major up-leg is soon to begin, which will send silver to $160-$200/oz.
Michael Oliver's biggest mistake may have been putting a hard DATE on his price target for silver...
1
21
TheSphinx 🐿️ retweeted
🔥"SILVER'S BEAR MARKET IS BOTTOMING OUT...WAVE 5 TO TAKE SILVER TO $160-$200"
The Elliott Wave bros believe that silver is bottoming NOW, & its next major up-leg is soon to begin, which will send silver to $160-$200/oz.
Michael Oliver's biggest mistake may have been putting a hard DATE on his price target for silver...
"In precious metals capital markets, “mining stocks are often a leading indicator of metal prices.”"
【破底翻的先行訊號：金礦股 GDX 拒絕跟隨紙黃金下殺的底層邏輯】
從這組對比圖表可以清晰看到一個極為關鍵的市場結構性背離（Divergence）：
紙面報價（左圖）的極限施壓：
黃金（GOLD）在這波下殺中，價格直接貫破了前期的底部支撐線，創出近期新低。這在技術面上會誘發大量演算法交易與散戶的停損單，是標準的期貨盤面洗盤手法。
金礦股（右圖）的強勢表態：
作為黃金實體生產者的集合體，大型金礦商 ETF（GDX）在這波回調中，雖然同樣承受賣壓，但其低點卻穩穩守在前波低谷之上，完全沒有跟隨黃金報價破底。
在貴金屬的資本市場裡，「礦企股票往往是金屬價格的領先指標」。
當華爾街利用衍生品合約將黃金現貨/期貨價格砸穿支撐時，真正持有金礦企業（掌握地下實體資源與未來現金流）的聰明錢並沒有跟著恐慌拋售。
GDX 拒絕破底，意味著大型長線資金根本不認可這波紙黃金的下殺空間。
這種「底層資產破底、生產商股票卻抗跌」的強勢不確認（Non-confirmation）現象，往往是空頭陷阱（Bear Trap）成型、籌碼清洗接近尾聲的強烈特徵。
看懂這層期現貨與股票市場的資金落差，就能在黎明前最猛烈的震盪中，拿穩手中的籌碼。
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19
TheSphinx 🐿️ retweeted
US10Y last 2 days, post HOT CPI.
Be Sure to tag your favourite "Rates have peaked Influencer".
No they have NOT, its a debt/fiat based collapse. Rates will spike us into collapse.
IL2 has now been respected on the Upside HVF on this market.
New ATH's to come.
@theresetsniper @thecryptosniper
TheSphinx 🐿️ retweeted
破解之道：紙控價體系的致命死穴實物擠兌（Physical Squeeze）
這套虛擬定價架構的唯一罩門，在於它假設「市場參與者永遠相信能用期貨價買到實物」。一旦進入以下兩個臨界點，紙期貨的控制力將瞬間崩塌：
主權巨鯨與工業剛需的「直接提貨」：
當各國央行為了去美元化而瘋狂掃貨實體黃金，以及太陽能、AI 基礎建設對實體白銀產生龐大且不可逆的工業消耗時，這些終端買家不玩紙面展期，而是直接要求交收。這將導致交易所的註冊倉單（Registered Inventory）面臨持續性的大出血。
期現溢價（EFP）的極限引爆：
當實物庫存見底、交割陷入緊張，現貨與期貨之間將出現極端異常的溢價。此時，一旦空頭機構無法用現金混水摸魚，被迫面臨交不出實物金銀的違約絕境，就會引發慘烈的空頭踩踏與平倉潮。
宏觀定價：
用印鈔機買不光全世界的黃金，但用「紙合約」可以暫時掩蓋真實的稀缺性。
然而，當實體提款機裡再也吐不出金銀條塊時，定價權必將以最暴烈的方式，從華爾街的期貨螢幕，強勢回歸到物理世界的真實供需手裡。
【破解美國期貨壓制黃金白銀價格的終極路徑：實物擠兌】
自布列敦森林體系瓦解、美元與黃金徹底脫鉤後，美國透過建立高槓桿的「紙黃金／紙白銀」期貨市場，成功在過去半世紀主導了貴金屬的定價權。然而，這套「以紙控價」的機制並非無懈可擊，它正迎來實體市場的剛性反噬。
要破解這場金融陽謀，必須先看透紙期貨壓制金銀價格的兩大底層邏輯：
一、 資金分流與囤積心理的瓦解
極限槓桿抽乾實物買盤：
買實物金銀需要全額交割與倉儲成本，而期貨只需極低保證金就能撬動數十倍資金。這套機制猶如巨大的海綿，將絕大多數企圖從金銀上漲中獲利的資金，全數吸納進衍生品賭場，成功阻止了民間向市場大量提取實物。
重塑資產認知：
當投資人習慣用合約進行短線波段操作，金銀便從「對抗法幣印鈔的終極儲備」，被降格為「隨時可平倉的交易籌碼」，從根本上削弱了資本長期鎖死實物庫存的意願。
二、 「無限紙供應」奪取定價權
脫離物理極限的合約增發：
實體金銀受制於礦產與精煉產能，供應具備絕對剛性；但期貨本質是多空對賭，華爾街能無限創造未平倉合約（Open Interest），用遠超全球可交割庫存的「紙面供應量」來砸盤。
現金結算的定價漏洞： COMEX 絕大多數合約最終都以現金平倉或展期，極少進入實體交割。這讓金銀的短期定價權徹底落入投行與量化演算法手中，而非反映真實世界的供需缺口。
TheSphinx 🐿️ retweeted
Many are asking where the fed funds rate should actually be? The answer is ~5.50%. However, it’s at 3.86% today.
The math fits on a napkin.
The effective funds rate ("EFFR") minus core PCE is the real cost of money. From 1960 to 2007, before QE, it averaged 2.44%. Today it’s 0.76%.
Core PCE is 3.1% today. Add 2.44% and you get 5.54%. Call it 5.50%. The Fed is roughly 170bp short, which is 6 or 7 more hikes. The market is debating one.
The textbook way to answer this is the Taylor Rule. However, it needs a “neutral rate” as an input, and nobody knows what that ACTUALLY is. Plug in 1% and the rule says 4.75%. Plug in 2% and it says 5.75%. A model that moves a full point on a guess is a guess.
Nobody has to estimate 2.44%. It’s what money cost for almost half a century, through booms, busts and double-digit inflation.
By that standard, 5.50% is the average, or where the fed funds rate should be today; yet, today, it's JUST 3.86%! So, if the @federalreserve is actually SERIOUS about fighting inflation, we're looking at 6 to 7 more hikes.
Math = fun!
TheSphinx 🐿️ retweeted
Gareth Soloway sees gold returning to its all-time high of $5,600 by late 2027, driven by persistent monetary expansion and over $40 trillion in U.S. debt. In silver, he recently bought $100,000 in physical bars below $50, viewing the pullback as a technical retest of the 1980 and 2011 peaks near $48 to $50. While he cautions that a break below $3,885 in gold could trigger a flush to $3,500 and pull silver toward $35 to $40, he says he would look to accumulate more at those levels.
TheSphinx 🐿️ retweeted
Shocking fiscal collapse in the first month of 2026. Stunning numbers.
Starting at the top: Oct tax revenues dropped 8.8% YoY to $369BN. On an LTM basis, YoY growth was just 1.1% (down from 3.2% in Sept and 9.7% year ago). Every time LTM tax receipts have turned negative, the US already was or was about to enter a recession. At this rate, this will be November or December.
US Budget Deficit Explodes: Worst October On Record On Historic Surge In Defense Spending; 28% Of All Taxes Go To Pay Interest zerohedge.com/markets/us-bud…
TheSphinx 🐿️ retweeted
Heavy selling in futures has led to this.
No way there should be 15¢ of backwardation with nearly three weeks remaining before the Dec26 goes off the board and into "delivery".
If you want to hang your hat on something in the hope of a bounce in the short term, this would be it.
TheSphinx 🐿️ retweeted
🎇SILVER SHORTS WILL BE TESTED IN DECEMBER‼️
Specs added BILLIONS in silver shorts before November's rebound.
⚡️Vince argues these new shorts are shallow, poorly informed, & VULNERABLE as physical demand returns from India & Europe ahead of December's expiration.
silvertrade.com/news/preciou…
TheSphinx 🐿️ retweeted
【黎明前的極限測試：看破期現價差，抱緊你的黃白籌碼】
近期市場的劇烈震盪，確實讓許多堅守黃白實體與無槓桿部位的投資人感到折磨。但如果我們剝開華爾街製造的報價迷霧，直擊底層的「期現市場結構」，你會發現紙面防線其實正在全面潰退。
先看白銀正在上演的極限擠壓。盤面數據顯示，白銀現貨（銀/美元）價格達到 50.2485，直接強壓過白銀期貨的 50.173。這種現貨價格反超期貨的現象，在金融物理學中是標準的「實體擠兌」信號。
這證明了一個鐵錚錚的事實：
老美在期貨盤面上壓得越用力、試圖製造恐慌，實體市場的買盤就越不買帳。紙合約與實體白銀的價差正在被強行撕裂，空頭的籌碼正被實實在在地抽乾。
再看黃金的底層強攻。目前黃金期貨報價 3,893.15，而黃金現貨已強勢挺進至 3,889.40。期現之間的價差被暴力拉近到僅剩 3.75 美元。這微乎其微的 3 元多差距，無可辯駁地反映出當下黃金買盤的力道有多麼兇悍。當現貨價格幾乎要與期貨平起平坐時，意味著「紙黃金」主導定價的壓制力已經到了強弩之末。
寫在破曉之前：
這就是 1974 年以來，利用高槓桿期貨分流實體需求的定價機制，在面臨真實物理剛需時的「最後掙扎」。
當實體買家不再玩紙面展期，而是直接要求交割時，那些試圖靠無限制增發空單來砸盤的把戲，終將被現貨市場的剛性提現徹底粉碎。
現在正是黃白黎明來臨前最深的黑暗，也是定價權從「紙合約」向「實體物理」轉移的陣痛期。
不要被眼前的短線洗盤給震出去。看懂這套流動性底層邏輯，拿穩你手上的籌碼，坐實你的部位。在這場對抗法幣幻覺的戰役中，時間與物理定律，最終會站在我們這邊。
破解之道：紙控價體系的致命死穴實物擠兌（Physical Squeeze）
這套虛擬定價架構的唯一罩門，在於它假設「市場參與者永遠相信能用期貨價買到實物」。一旦進入以下兩個臨界點，紙期貨的控制力將瞬間崩塌：
主權巨鯨與工業剛需的「直接提貨」：
當各國央行為了去美元化而瘋狂掃貨實體黃金，以及太陽能、AI 基礎建設對實體白銀產生龐大且不可逆的工業消耗時，這些終端買家不玩紙面展期，而是直接要求交收。這將導致交易所的註冊倉單（Registered Inventory）面臨持續性的大出血。
期現溢價（EFP）的極限引爆：
當實物庫存見底、交割陷入緊張，現貨與期貨之間將出現極端異常的溢價。此時，一旦空頭機構無法用現金混水摸魚，被迫面臨交不出實物金銀的違約絕境，就會引發慘烈的空頭踩踏與平倉潮。
宏觀定價：
用印鈔機買不光全世界的黃金，但用「紙合約」可以暫時掩蓋真實的稀缺性。
然而，當實體提款機裡再也吐不出金銀條塊時，定價權必將以最暴烈的方式，從華爾街的期貨螢幕，強勢回歸到物理世界的真實供需手裡。
Golden silver orange cell right now. Those nice people at the fed offering free discounts to everyone who wants to take us cold and silver including the Chinese
Enough of Huang’s sex life.
Solid read here. Our fiscal situation is a disaster.
We’re basically borrowing $100 billion a week now.
Annualized this is $5.2 trillion.
It’s Monopoly money at this point.
Not of us own enough gold.
29
I keep saying this, people don't seem to get it
I am seeing some debate about whether $Silver has bottomed or has a few dollars of downside left. The upside from this set up is 10X+. An monthly wick to $45 does not invalidate the pattern. At $500, will you care whether you bought at $50 or $45?
25
TheSphinx 🐿️ retweeted
A VERY STRONG & RISING DOLLAR HAS BEEN PUSHING GOLD AND SILVER LOWER IN 2026: Japan is about to strengthen the Yen, which will weaken the DXY & that will lift the metal prices! metalsandminers.substack.com…
