Pushing the limits of Microsoft Excel.
Not Financial Advice
Joined January 2023
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Here is a brief NotebookLM video summary of Aggregator Wars.
The short version: AI agents go straight for the one asset that made the internet giants rich, the direct relationship with the customer. That is why nobody will take their foot off the accelerator. Data wins the customer, recurring cash flow keeps you in the fight, and profits migrate to hardware providers nobody can copy and to whoever owns the customer. Google and Meta are best placed, consensus has Meta upside down, and the AI labs and compute sellers face a funding squeeze into 2027 as capital markets run dry.
If you want a deep dive on what an aggregator is, how agentic AI changes legacy aggregation theory, who is best positioned to be the next aggregator, what each company's profit engine means in this capex cycle, what it means for AI labs and compute sellers, and where value migrates to, I recommend reading the full note. It is as condensed as possible, but packed with information.
I'd invite anyone to push back on any angle of this framework.
It really feels toppy when earnings beats result in flat share price reaction and equal misses in DD% declines.
It's literally true. Yet so many PMs that are not on X. Crazy.
Bill Ackman says that X is the best source of news and financial information in the world, and the one that he spends the most time on
Reminder that this is a billionaire investor with every paid news resource available to him if he wishes for it.
"People who are on X vs. people who rely on conventional media, you generally feel like you are a week to two weeks ahead."
LBO_Guy retweeted
ALERT🚨: GB300 NVL72 @sgl_project can get close to 1000 tok/s/user on DeepSeek Flash v4.1 by aggressively fusing kernels together!!
TileRT started this trend in the ecosystem of megakernel engines on OSS frontier models! Glad to see SGLang widely adopting it!
Great work by the SGLang, @radixark, and NVIDIA teams on pushing performance!
Look how the tables have turned. Lovely. Even when you are on the driver's seat, it is still preferable to not squeeze the last penny out, because IF there is a time you are not, oh boy will they fck u up!
This is the best piece of journalism published this year. Make sure you read it.
It’s a masterful piece of writing.
wsj.com/tech/apple-iphone-me…
LBO_Guy retweeted
trade[XYZ] and ICE, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, are joining forces to bring 24/7 perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to the United States.
In just over a year, our markets on Hyperliquid have surpassed $650 billion in volume. They provide continuous price discovery for stocks, indices, and commodities, and have become trusted reference points for retail and institutions alike when traditional markets are closed. Much of the world trades them. Until now, Americans could only watch.
We intend to change that. Subject to CFTC approval, trade[XYZ] and ICE plan to establish a new, dedicated U.S. market, with novel exchange and clearing infrastructure built on Hyperliquid. Planned contracts span equities, indices, commodities, FX, and crypto, with access through participating brokers and platforms. We’ll share more on products, eligibility, and timing as approvals progress.
ICE brings more than 25 years of experience operating regulated markets, clearing, and managing risk. trade[XYZ] brings the product development, market design, and technology behind the most liquid and robust markets on Hyperliquid.
Innovation and the protections of U.S. regulation shouldn’t be a trade-off. Together, we plan to prove it.
ICE is making a strategic investment in trade[XYZ] and joins us in building towards the future of Hyperliquid. A small group of market luminaries is joining as well, beginning with Stan Druckenmiller. For more than four decades, few investors have anticipated the great turns in markets as often as Stan. We’re proud to have him with us for the next one.
We’re building the U.S. market in parallel with our existing HIP-3 markets, which we’ll continue to expand and innovate on. We expect both to flourish. They each have a long road map ahead, from new asset classes to new ways to trade them.
To the Hyperliquid community, whether you were here before us or came because of us, thank you. You took a chance on new markets and you made them matter. You’ll forever be a part of this story.
Anything. Anytime. On ICE[XYZ].
Ahora que vais a empezar a oir mucho de Repsol, es buen momento para recordar que hace no mucho nadie daba un duro por repsol. Y ahora estan casi como los Koreanos, no saben que hacer con tanta pasta!
Amazing to see just how profitable Skoda is even in tough market conditions. I mean, it makes more money than Audi with less than half the sales!! Profit per car is astronomical, yet most in EU believe its a better value proposition than Audi (2.5x less profitable). Best value though is Cupra. Amazing they don't make any penny on those. Lovely for anyone thining on getting one.
$VW
LBO_Guy retweeted
New Halloween outfit for 2026? Arini blowing up the high yield market?
🤖 Made with AI
LBO_Guy retweeted
BIG OIL 3Q EARNINGS: Shell boost share buybacks to ~$5 billion per quarter (from a rate of ~$3 billion previously) after delivering its 2nd highest ever quarterly net income thanks to high oil and LNG prices and -- most importantly -- record refining margins. $SHEL
A popped bitch, that's that sh!t i dont like 🤣
Arini's flagship hedge fund was down 12% for the month through Oct. 23 and around 26% so far this year, on track for the first annual loss. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
LBO_Guy retweeted
A este ingeniero ferroviario sólo le ha faltado explicárselo con dibujitos al progresista Ferreras
«No son fallos por azar... hay una falta de mantenimiento y de gestión de los sistemas y automatismos de seguridad»
LBO_Guy retweeted
Arini is down 26% and the losses are rocking the very high yield market that its star trader Hamza Lemssouguer once dominated.
These losses are astronomical and mark an astonishing reversal for a hedge fund that made its mark by being aggressive, leaning in while owning size.
LBO_Guy retweeted
Nada que decir hoy además de lo dicho hace unos meses. En este país hay un sector aprovechándose del resto de la población y todos sabemos quiénes son.
El PSOE tiene un problemón con los trenes porque no es uno de esos activos que puedas darle la vuelta de la noche a la mañana. Los recortes de la GFC le meten a la red casi una década de déficit de mantenimiento, de depreciación acumulada que no es sustituida por inversión, pero esta es una narrativa muy complicada de trasladar al público (“no es culpa nuestra, sino de las decisiones tomadas hace 10 años”).
El próximo gobierno se va a comer el mismo marrón, nadie tiene el incentivo o el capital para hacer un reacondicionamiento, porque los beneficios son a largo plazo y nadie se los va a asignar al gobierno que tome la decisión (no es lo mismo una foto inaugurando el tunel de Pajares que un plan nacional de mantenimiento de las vías).
El puesto de ministro de Fomento, en el pasado tan deseado, va a empezar a triturar muchas carreras políticas, como ya ha triturado la del titular actual, porque el mayor activo del país por balor conrable, su red ferroviaria, se ha convertido en un juego que tiene truco, será muy complicado para cualquier político salir victorioso de él.
Wow
I did say we'd be releasing our models periodically...introducing Gemini 4 Carbon, our next frontier model.
Following Argon's release just two weeks ago, Carbon shows the pace at which we’re pushing the frontier, it ranks #1 on the recently updated v5.0 of @ArtificialAnlys Intelligence Index at 59. It also leads across key cybersecurity evaluations scoring 88.2% on SEC-bench Pro for finding vulnerabilities, 54.8% on ExploitGym for exploitation, and 71.0% on CWE-bench for patching.
We’re seeing significant improvements in long-horizon tasks even compared to Argon, and we’ve strengthened frontier safeguards.
As we did with Argon, we’re going to roll it out gradually + responsibly. Some trusted cyber defenders will get access starting this week. We'll be expanding it to more partners through our Fairwind Program, ahead of wider availability soon, so hang tight!
LBO_Guy retweeted
It's highly GM-positive for them
CXMT's HBM3 production cost is around $2/Gb compared to $0.6/Gb for the memory big 3. CXMT is selling it for $5/Gb-$7/Gb. They have a GM of 60%-71% on HBM at these yields. GM on DRAM for CXMT is 85%.
This is the first time CXMT is mass-producing HBM. Low starting yields are natural. (Look what happened to Samsung when they started)
Secondly, they will easily climb the yield curve over the next 6 months. Yield will reach 50%-70% by Q2
Unlike lithography, WFE tools are not a bottleneck here
The yield loss is happening at the bonding and TSV formation stage
They have the best bonders from Hanmi, grinding tools from Disco, and plating equipment from ACMR
All they need is some time to climb the yield curve
Ideally, CXMT would have started MP in Q2 2027. But a lot of Chinese XPU designers are launching new products in Q4 26 and Q1 27, so they have to supply them now
