
Trading and hodling #Bitcoin since 2015 I Focusing on longterm trends I No alpha for daytrades I No financial advice I Indicators available
Joined October 2021
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"I don’t believe we shall ever have a good money again before we take the thing out of the hands of government, that is, we can’t take it violently out of the hands of government, all we can do is by some sly roundabout way introduce something that they can’t stop." Hayek 1971
A moment of respectful silence please for all the Bitcoin shorters who provided us with the liquidity to reach 85k again.
Your service will always be remembered. Thank you bears.
after many years of observing crypto twitter, which consists of professional fundamental analysts who occasionally share completely realistic sports bets, here is how you should view all Fed decisions:
rate hikes = bullish
rate cuts = bullish
hope this helps
TLDR
1.25 Billion worth of Bitcoin supply will enter the market.
Strategy announces a Digital Credit Capital Framework designed to strengthen Digital Credit, enhance liquidity, preserve long-term Bitcoin exposure, and support long-term value creation. $MSTR $STRC strategy.com/press/strategy-…
The negative gamma is brutal at 60k on the Bitcoin options market. Have not seen this brutal negative column since following this chart.
If 60k fails, the market maker will be forced to hedge via shorting futures - pushing the price further south.
Every big crypto exchange is already providing proxies allowing altcoin "investors" to rotate into SpaceX.
This IPO will be the biggest capital black hole for the altcoin industry of all times.
SpaceX will absorb every last bit of "altseason" fuel. The great fundamentals of altcoin investments will rotate into the IPO priced at 285x EBITDA.
Tesla is priced at 400 P/E so SpaceX is still reasonable 😁
Option table is pricing seriously elevated implied volatility to the 05/21 and 05/22 $SPX markets. If you like calm market days, you might want to touch grass on these days.
Bitcoin is sliding upwards in heavy positive gamma territory, market makers are forced to hedge against the move via futures shorts.
Futures APR on long expiries is way lower than treasury yield, derivative market is not positioned for a bull market.
APR on the Bitcoin futures market is way below treasury yield levels. The market is currently not interested in BTC.
Demand should initially raise APR above base yield, then carry onboards hedging the extreme.
Bull cycle has not started yet.
There is a ton of positive gamma around and above 80k. Market makers on the Bitcoin options market will be forced to hedge against further upside.
For context, I am old enough to rememner that 250k has been his S2F target in 2017. Nine years ago. Like clockwork...
How long does it take to declare a model invalid? 20yrs? 50yrs?
Chartpunk retweeted
Every time Bitcoin drops, people swear it’s dying and going to zero.
It’s amazing how the same script repeats no matter how high the floor gets.
In the early days, a collapse from $1,000 to $100 felt like the end. There was no infrastructure, no liquidity, no believers.
Fine, call it dead back then.
But years later, It ran to $20,000, fell to $3,000, they said it was over. It ran to $69,000, fell to $16,000, they said it was over.
Now it runs to $126,000, pulls back to $60,000, not $6,000… not $600… not $60 and somehow we’re hearing “it’s going to zero” again.
Bitcoin is the only asset in history that gets declared dead… at prices that would’ve been unthinkable just one cycle earlier.
People still don’t understand that Bitcoin doesn’t die. It resets. It cleans house. It forces its holders to prove their conviction. It punishes bad risk, sloppy leverage, lazy discipline. It transfers coins from weak hands to strong ones. It reloads. And then it climbs again.
Volatility isn’t a flaw, it’s the purification mechanism. It’s how Bitcoin earns the right to move higher.
Look at the lows: $200 → $3,000 → $16,000 → $60,000 That’s not an obituary, that’s evolution.
Bitcoin has “died” a hundred times.
Funny how something keeps dying… and making new all-time highs anyway.
What a phenomenon. What an asset. What a time to be alive.
















