Theo Trade

Last week traders chased the short side into Friday's close. In typical market fashion, the pain trade followed. Gianni Di Poce always asks what move hurts the most traders. The market is not your friend. He's still not buying this rally. Did you get caught short?

Don Kaufman's take on IPOs: everybody is on one side of the trade. Morgan Stanley is Anthropic's stabilization agent: if the stock starts to fall, its job is to buy. No firm involved will ever tell you to short it. So listen only to what you believe. Would you buy it?

In Gianni Di Poce's view, this is a time to survive, preserve capital and keep everything intact until things turn around. But if the market hammers out a low by the end of the year, he thinks the first half of next year could be one for the memory books. How are you preparing?

Don Kaufman looks at a whole generation of traders who don't believe markets can even go down. A selloff like Thursday's, then a bounce right back. That just ropes more people in. It's learned, it's reinforced. He thinks it ends horribly at some point. Have you ever traded a real decline?

Was Thursday’s Nasdaq plunge really a market-wide risk-off event, or just one ugly chart? TheoTrade walks through the cross-market signals, sector rotation, and key levels traders should be watching now. theotrade.com/risk-off-marke…

Everybody's looking at the size of this rally. Don Kaufman says that's the wrong focus. Some of the biggest single moves in a falling market are to the upside. Real rally or rip-your-face-off rally? He thinks it's both. They're the same animal. How are you positioned?

Elections have consequences. Gianni Di Poce says they often mark the beginning or the end of trends in capital flows. It's looking more and more to him like China will be home to the best equity opportunities for the next six to nine months. Buying China?

People see the S&P up 70 points and think it's going to rip. Don Kaufman says it's right on the threshold. If $SMH sells off, its 4% gain gets wiped out like that. The black hole can be Nvidia. If it comes back off, he thinks it takes everything with it. Is Nvidia the tell?

Don Kaufman points to yesterday's rally: it forced everybody to cover their shorts, so nobody had any on this morning. Normally a selloff gets a rip and a bounce as shorts cover and reload. With no shorts to cover, there's no bid back. A very ugly scenario. Did you see this coming?

AMD went quiet for 6 weeks. Then it moved. Gianni Di Poce spotted the setup before the crowd. Tomorrow at 2 PM ET, he's showing the 3 checks he uses to identify these opportunities. Free live session. See how it works: clkmg.com/theotrade/popcornt…

Gianni Di Poce says forget the voting booth. The Treasury market is how markets vote on governments, and not just in the US. If lenders don't see them as reliable or don't think they'll be paid back, they charge more interest. He thinks the bond vigilantes are going to come back with a vengeance again. Watching yields?

Amazon is up 18% in four days. Stocks that were getting pummeled suddenly became the lifeboat. Don Kaufman says this is not constructive movement. Something is burning. He thinks fund managers are like a desperate animal caught in a corner. Can this rally last?

Before your next trade, run this quick volume check: compare current 5-minute volume to the morning baseline. If activity has collapsed, far profit targets may be a trap. Today’s TheoTrade post breaks down the setup. theotrade.com/pick-your-prof…

Gianni Di Poce sees biotech sitting on a huge base. $XBI is basically where it was in 2021 on the monthly chart. He thinks it's still so early. He doesn't know if it's an AI story, but the names that look good now aren't in semiconductors like a few months ago. Biotech or chips?

Bonds used to be the safety trade. Don Kaufman says they don't feel so safe right now. He thinks there could be days where bonds, financials and tech all sell off, and people ask where the money is going. He sees gold drawing big flows. Is gold the next place to hide?

Gianni says this isn't an environment to be a hero. He keeps going back and forth: a deleveraging event in a longer-term bull market, or a new bear market. It's wait and see. It's okay to sit on the side until you're ready to take a shot you're comfortable with. Are you sitting out?

People want to make the election bigger than it probably is. Don Kaufman says the options market disagrees. At Friday's close, the SPX weekly expected move was $168. With the S&P up 60 points today, it's about $130. Net net, he calls election volatility negligible. Trading the election?

What does it mean when VIX futures invert for the first time in 6 months? TheoTrade says it’s a sign traders are paying up for protection right now, and that could make the next market move much bigger. #markets #VIX theotrade.com/vix-futures-in…

Don Kaufman's read on volatility futures: prepare for impact. At no point in six months were they inverted. Now they are. He says this is very serious. As other sectors roll over, it gets infinitely more dangerous. Are you watching vol futures?

Don Kaufman says rotation can't save the S&P in this market. People believe rotations will hold it up as the Nasdaq sells off. He calls that impossible. Nvidia is a $5 trillion company. Nvidia selling off matters more than 250-plus S&P stocks. Do you think enough rotation can offset Nvidia?