Experienced advisers to major companies and financial institutions - with particular focus on rising impact of geopolitics and defence
Zurich, Switzerland
Joined January 2016
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We don't often use the word "impossible". But the ageing of the BabyBoomers in the world's richest economies means it is impossible for GDP to match the growth achieved during the Boomer SuperCycle, when the Boomers were in their Wealth Creator years new-normal.com/economic-grow…
Wars are always inflationary. And the Iran and Ukraine Wars are following this pattern. Inevitably, this inflation will continue to work its way down the value chain. As chemicals are warning, higher prices and shortages almost certainly lie ahead. new-normal.com/economic-grow…
Europeans and Asians need to worry about whether the US will continue to export transport fuels in the autumn as the US midterm elections loom? Will the White House want to risk shortages developing in the domestic market whilst exports ramp up? new-normal.com/economic-grow…
Two major wars are underway in Europe and the Arabian Gulf. The IEA warns they have already created "the largest energy supply disruption in history". And now, it seems financial markets are waking up to the major risks created by the $2.6tn AI bubble. new-normal.com/economic-grow…
If Trump now walks away, he will leave Iran with control of Hormuz. But he will need a lot of ‘boots on the ground’ to invade a country of 93 million people.. As history confirms, air power alone is unlikely to win the war. new-normal.com/economic-grow…
We are nearing crunch time for vital energy supplies of transport fuels and natural gas. Europe's gas storage for the winter was just 28% full when refilling for the winter began in April. Around the world, energy supplies are getting tighter by the day new-normal.com/oil-markets/h…
There are major upside risks on crude oil and product pricing as we head into H2. Inventories are very low, with no margin for error. And nobody knows whether the current US-Iran talks will actually end in a long-term agreement. new-normal.com/financial-eve…
Financial markets think the oil crisis created by the Hormuz closure is over. But in reality, the risk of major shortages by Q4 is actually increasing. Oil inventories are near tank bottoms. And Hormuz transits are only a fraction of the pre-invasion level new-normal.com/financial-eve…
Will oil and gas will now start to flow again though the Strait? If they don't, more major storage points will join Cushing in being at 'tank bottoms'. And rationing will start to become inevitable, as the IEA warned in April. new-normal.com/economic-grow…
The question is whether oil and gas will now start to flow again though the Strait? If they don't, more major storage points will join Cushing in being at 'tank bottoms'. And rationing will start to become inevitable, as the IEA warned in April. new-normal.com/economic-grow…
Oil companies are warning that "the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is going to be precariously low. What comes next is higher prices. We are getting closer to the bottom. July is likely the pain point when the market turns." new-normal.com/oil-markets/u…
The World Bank, IMF, IEA and WTO are warning the crisis risks spiralling out of control: “Continued depletion of global oil inventories ahead of peak summer oil demand creates increasing risks for fuel security, market conditions and economic resilience.” new-normal.com/economic-grow…
US inflation risks are rising as the Hormuz closure enters its 4th month. Inflation rose to 3.8% in April. It was just 2.4% in February before the US/Israel war began. And the upward trend is set to continue. new-normal.com/economic-grow…
Financial markets are assuming the Strait will reopen this month, and free passage resume in June. If this is delayed, the risks of a global downturn to rival 2008 are rising. new-normal.com/oil-markets/h…
Petrochemical prices are warning of major inflation risks ahead due to the crisis in the Strait. They confirm we need to move back to a world of 'local-for-local' supply chains. The question is how quickly these can be put in place? new-normal.com/oil-markets/p…
China is potentially in the ‘eye of the storm’ as smartphone component prices rise. This will force its manufacturers to raise their prices – just as the Strait of Hormuz closure forces consumers to cutback spending. new-normal.com/consumer-dema…
A ‘wake-up call’ is now about to hit most Western governments. Critical oil and gas-based products are at increasing risk of becoming unaffordable, or unobtainable. new-normal.com/oil-markets/o…
The IMF is warning that "Heightened macro risks and the prospect of tighter monetary policy could trigger a sudden repricing by financial markets—with much lower asset valuations, higher risk premia, more capital flight, and dollar appreciation". new-normal.com/economic-grow…
Europe is facing its first major supply crisis, on jet fuel. Prices have already doubled. And now the IEA is warning, “Several European countries may start to face shortages of jet fuel in the next 6 weeks". new-normal.com/chemical-comp…
Europe is facing its first major supply crisis, on jet fuel. Prices have already doubled. And now the IEA is warning, “Several European countries may start to face shortages of jet fuel in the next 6 weeks". new-normal.com/chemical-comp…