Cognitive psychologist and decision scientist @TU_Muenchen. Risk, attention, adaptive cognition, computational modeling, process tracing, research methods.
Berlin, Germany
Joined November 2021
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- Following101
- Followers410
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Thorsten Pachur retweeted
🔐 When problem-solving gets harder physically, learning gets smarter. #SCIoI researchers show that higher effort leads to slower, more focused, and more efficient exploration in a virtual lockbox task. Intelligence is embodied.
🔗 scienceofintelligence.de/whe…
Thorsten Pachur retweeted
Just published @JHealthEcon /w @ThorstenPachur!
Attention drives the gap between TTO/SG health valuations.
🔍 TTO: equal focus on health & duration
🎲 SG: focus shifts to probability& health
👁️ Less attention to trade-offs = bigger TTO–SG utility gap
sciencedirect.com/science/ar…
Thorsten Pachur retweeted
Many thanks to my great coauthors, Ralph Hertwig and @ThorstenPachur, and to @arc_mpib & @mpib_berlin.
Full read: nature.com/articles/s41541-0…
Here are our main findings in a thread:
Thorsten Pachur retweeted
Today!
This will be the last talk of this #summersemester. If you miss us, check out the recorded talks of the past semesters: ias.tum.de/ias/news-events-i…
With @esimperl, @A_Wykowska, @rbotnar, @ThorstenPachur and many others!
This week's #WednesdayCoffeeTalk: "#RenewableEnergies, Renewed #Authoritarianisms? The Political Economy of #SolarEnergy in the #MENA" by Benjamin Schütze from our friends at @FRIAS_UFreiburg.
This talks is part of the Seminar Series of European Universities on #Sustainability!
These findings speak against a direct link from media coverage to public risk perception. Further analyses reveal that rather than relying on media reports, people recruit knowledge about occurrences of the risks in their personal social circles (that is, social sampling). 5/5
… of dramatic risks in the media. This distortion, however, is not reflected in people’s frequency judgments. In fact, across all datasets, Bayes factors indicate evidence for the absence of a difference in the distortion of the judgments for dramatic and nondramatic risks. 4/5
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… I identified all studies in the literature that collected frequency judgments and measures of media coverage for the risks investigated by Lichtenstein et al. and synthesized the data in a Bayesian meta-analysis. The results show a consistent and strong overreporting … 3/5
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Lichtenstein et al. had also analyzed media reports and found that dramatic risks are overreported relative to their actual frequencies—suggesting that people’s distorted risk perception might be due to distorted media coverage. To test whether these results replicate, … 2/5
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The widely cited study by Lichtenstein et al. (1978) concluded that people overestimate the frequency of dramatic causes of death (e.g., Tornado). A new article in @CognitionJourn finds that these results do not replicate (Open Access):
sciencedirect.com/science/ar…
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Thorsten Pachur retweeted
Although dramatic risks are overreported in the media, this does not warp people’s perception of the risks’ frequencies. People seem to be able to mentally shield themselves from distorted media influences
📢New from: @ThorstenPachur
sciencedirect.com/science/ar…
These improvements in transfer outsize the distortion in retrospection: hindsight bias might be a price worth paying. Our results represent theory integration of two major research programs on quantitative estimation: hindsight bias and seeding effects psycnet.apa.org/record/2023-… 3/3
We show that when making estimations about real-world quantities (e.g., country population), information about the actual quantities not only distorts people’s retrospective views on their initial estimates; it also improves their estimates for other objects of the domain. 2/3
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New publication in JEP:General (with J. Groß, @bk_kreis, H. Blank) demonstrating that hindsight bias—commonly viewed as reflecting a mental flaw—results from beneficial knowledge updating. 1/3
We are hiring! The Chair of Behavioral Research Methods @TU_Muenchen has openings for 2 postdoc or predoc positions (100%) on computational modeling of behavior. Application deadline is September 22. For more information: msl.mgt.tum.de/en/brm/job-op…
Thorsten Pachur retweeted
How do attribute attention and option attention shape preferences in risky choice?
New paper with @ThorstenPachur, out now in Cognition:
authors.elsevier.com/a/1gvJq…
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Join our team @TU_Muenchen! The Chair for Behavioral Research Methods is offering two postdoc or predoc positions (100%) on computational modeling of cognition. Application deadline is April 14. More information can be found here: msl.mgt.tum.de/en/brm/job-op…
Thorsten Pachur retweeted
Ein interessantes Thema das unsere Podiumsgäste @LenaJanys @UniBonn, Axel Gelfert @TUBerlin und @ThorstenPachur @TU_Muenchen heute Abend um 18 Uhr diskutieren werden! Seid #live oder im #LiveStream dabei! – at Hanover, Germany
Modelle zur Vorhersage menschlichen Verhaltens sind ein fester Bestandteil der #Krisenkommunikation – allerdings nicht unumstritten. Wie viel Vertrauen sollte man also in sie setzen? Eine Online-Lecture mit @xplanatorium gibt morgen ab 18 Uhr Antworten: leopoldina.org/veranstaltung…
Thorsten Pachur retweeted
Markus Bühner übergibt den Heinz-Heckhausen-Preis für Jungwissenschaftler:innen 2022 an @VZilker von der @TU_Muechen. Sie wird für die kreative Kombination experimenteller und theoretischer Forschung innerhalb ihrer Dissertation zum Thema Entscheidungsfindung ausgezeichnet.
The results suggest that decisions from givens can incur cognitive costs that prohibit reliance on automatic compensatory decision making and that can favor the adaptive selection of a noncompensatory, heuristic strategies. 4/4