@Tim_NBA

🏀 Xs & Os • Team & Agent Consulting • @The_BBall_Index Founder • Lakers Exceptionalism Pod

 Hanging with models (the math ones)
linktr.ee/lakersexceptionalism
Joined May 2012
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How are we screwing up the literal first play of the game? This is supposed to be a Weave Chicago set where AR/Thybulle DHO, swing to Williams, Kessler flashes, then Chicago (down screen by Williams then DHO from Kessler) for Luka. 1st DHO is skipped (resulting in the low man being a 4 instead of a 1) and Williams forgets his part.
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Fair. Sexton’s hiding on Williams. In theory it’d be x1 as the low man. Here not quite, although you still get someone 2 inches shorter in that spot if there’s no switch. xitter.cf/juvwgp4/status/2113972…
jv@juvwgp4Oct 24
Replying to @Tim_NBA
how would first dho result in 1 as the low man? since djj is on austin
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48% playcall rate for the Lakers in the first half last night. LA went 1/5 at countering proactive post/iso help in the half. Got a shooting foul and 2 points the one time they did and had 2 points on the other 4 plays, including 2 turnovers.
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The Reaves/Sexton backcourt duo mixing in pitchbacks (and turning the corner on those) LAC was switching G/G with fake DHO downhill drives is such a pain to defend
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Cranjis McBasketball retweeted
BBall Index
@The_BBall_IndexOct 23
Our league wide Talent projections Here are the teams with the most Defensive Talent. Its not surprise OKC is first. Denver being dead last is not great for their season outlook
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The sauce runneth over
Cranjis McBasketball
@Tim_NBAOct 23
Grimes COOKS GPII with a blow by after the fake gather and has a sick finish through some contact at the rim 🍿🍿
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Cranjis McBasketball retweeted
BBall Index
@The_BBall_IndexOct 23
With our Talent Age Growth Curve Model we can project how a players skill will age. Here's how Jamal Murray's Overall Shooting Talent projects -Shooting Talent takes into account how well a player shoots relative to shot quality + volume + shot creation
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57% in Q1 (solid) 27% in Q2 (about as low as it gets) 47% for the half 1.15 ePPP organized vs 0.91 freelancing. 56% of shots when organized were open 25% when freelancing 2nd half info will be available to discord subscribers
haven't@mentholatingsOct 23
Replying to @Tim_NBA
Lakers organized offense rate
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Here's what 0.68 expected PPP and 0.71 actual PPP from LA's Q2 half court offense looks like. 1 open shot and 5 turnovers 3 of 16 possessions were sets and the rest were freelance. 0/2 at countering proactive post/iso help from GS. Transition saved the quarter/
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GS sends a double and Williams overloading 3 Lakers to the side Luka's trying to attack. Not good. You can see LaRavia confused by Williams' positioning and clear out to correct it. A quick pass to Mamu here by Luka still gives you something w/Jake's cut rebalancing numbers.
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Bad Warriors rotating here as we get 3 on the ball and 0 sink to take Kessler away. LA attacking quickly and getting penetration before the defense is set 💰
Cranjis McBasketball
@Tim_NBAOct 23
Much better tag of the roll this time from the Warriors
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LA runs Ram to keep GS out of an effective hedge and gets an advantage but Williams drives the closeout into a bad shot
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Very nice lob breakup by Lendeborg. Horford was beat. Reaves and Sexton are going to create a lot of these sorts of play this season. Getting downhill and drawing help to open lob/kick reads.
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Prayers have been answered
Cranjis McBasketball
@Tim_NBAMay 11
Austin Reaves is the only guard to rank in the top 10 for playoff rim attempts contested per game each of the past two seasons. He was 9th last year and this season is 6th
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Grimes COOKS GPII with a blow by after the fake gather and has a sick finish through some contact at the rim 🍿🍿
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More help from GS. This time it's a deterring help instead of a doubling help. The goal is to prevent a drive. When the defense is around the paint you want to cut into the middle of it. Kessler doesn't, and we get a turnover instead as AR throws it to where Kessler should be.
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Much better tag of the roll this time from the Warriors
Cranjis McBasketball
@Tim_NBAOct 23
LA goes double drag on this play and GS tries to overplay the screens (watch GP2's stance). That = drive advantage, and from this alignment you have a single tag side weak, meaning if Kessler is tagged well enough to stop him you'd get a wide open AR 3. GS doesn't commit ➡️ lob
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This one is being pointed out on film. You need to let each scoring option in the play be a scoring option.
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🚨 Help Beater 🚨 High Double + Bump again from GS. This time LA is ready. A pin-in flare for LaRavia by Looney = 3-pointer Last year LA's expected efficiency jumped from 0.92 ePPP (w/no counter) to 1.26 (with a counter) ePPP vs hard doubles.
Cranjis McBasketball
@Tim_NBAOct 23
LA goes to the option play they only run for Luka, where he can use the cross screen or down screen. After the post up we see GS bring a high double + bump, which takes away the immediate pass out from being a scoring chance. LA had a 3v2 weak side but stands around, enabling an easy recovery. No help beater vs help = bad offense, but Luka bails LA out with a TOUGH 3.
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