Tim retweeted
You can actually do this with far greater accuracy using just church bells. Can't quite believe it, but I tested it and it works.
Planes need a timestamp and unbroken sound. I tested 56 normal YouTube videos: 0 worked.
Bells need a few seconds. The bell ringers' database (Dove's Guide) logs every bell tower in England, 5,896 of them, all unique Hz, with the note of its biggest bell.
From a video with few seconds of the audio, the bells in a Derbyshire walk picked out the one church. I'm stunned.
Tim retweeted
Hiç abartmıyorum, bu makale iktisat tarihinin ulaşabileceği zirveyi temsil ediyor. Makalede Pirenne tezi, 500 bin para sikkesinin coğrafi dolaşımı üzerinden test ediliyor. Makalenin en önemli bulgusu ise aşağıdaki iki görselde açıkça görülüyor: İslam fetihleri öncesi ve sonrası dönemde sikke akışlarının nasıl değiştiğini gösteren son derece etkileyici iki figür:
@johannesmboehm and Chaney combine data on half a million ancient coins with a model of trade and money to reconstruct trade and consumption from AD 325 to 950. The estimates show economic activity shifting away from the Mediterranean from the 6th century.
econometricsociety.org/publi…
Tim retweeted
On many days of the year, the River Danube simply vanishes.
Near Immendingen in southern Germany, the young river drains away through cracks in its own bed into the limestone below, leaving a dry, stony channel.
Where the water goes is fascinating.
1/3
ALT A dry, stony stretch of the Danube riverbed near Immendingen, Germany, where the river sinks into the ground. Credit: Dionysos1970, CC BY-SA 4.0, via https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Donauversinkung_bei_Immendingen_2089.jpg
Tim retweeted
Relatief hoge opbrengst van zonnepanelen in NL in oktober, maar liefst 15% meer dan in oktober 2025. Voor een klein deel door groei van het opgesteld vermogen, de rest dankzij meer zonneschijn.
#grafiekvandedag
Tim retweeted
Below, we proved SpaceX/Musk coordinated w/ Russia to block U.S./NATO satellite after crippling Ukraine's air defenses. At the time, we hadn't measured downstream fallout of 40-hour pin. We have now. W/in the hour, we're dropping complete orbital/RF audit. It's devastating.
FINAL: SpaceX Blocked A U.S. And NATO Satellite to Assist a Russian Intercept After Crippling Ukraine's Air Defenses
New 5-page institutional brief & 60s 3D SGP4 orbital reconstruction with Craig Pirrong, Ph.D. @streetwiseprof | Data & Forensics: RAB @LibertyLynx
Pages 1-3 & 3D animation below; Pages 4-5 in Post 2; full 5-page PDF link in Post 3 🧵👇
As Craig Pirrong's counterfactual framework establishes: The Russian intercept is not the smoking gun. The failure to maneuver is.
1. The Sprinting Satellite Paradox & -96.64% Target Freeze (Page 1): Between Oct 13 and 24, 2026, Russian counterspace weapon COSMOS 2612 (68762) converted a 5-month, ~170 m/s co-planar trailing option into a 0.759 km sub-kilometer hold against U.S.-licensed radar satellite ICEYE-X36 (59103), which guides Ukraine's autonomous deep strikes on Russian oil refineries without SpaceX links, at the exact moment SpaceX throttled Ukrainian military Starshield terminals (-23.0% USF air-defense hits).
In June 2026 (with no Starlink alert), ICEYE-X36 defeated a Russian approach by dropping 0.500 km, generating 71.08 km/day secular drift (3.62 km/h in the sprint frame), exiting Russia's 3.0 km braking box in 49.7 to 60.78 minutes, blowing past Russia's 12 km or under onboard KTZ sensor in 3.31 hours, and causing a 103.7 to 118.5 km miss.
In October, as COSMOS 2612 fired a -2.2184 km (370.8x perched shock / 449.1x fit jump) burn to sprint 14.29x faster (400 km/day / 278 m/min), ICEYE-X36's evasion collapsed by 96.64% (to 16.8154 meters or less, P3 = 3.363%).
* Why? The Alert Itself Was the Weapon: SpaceX maintained a 0.401 km (0.711 km Oct 16) public GP collision alert via STARLINK-35856 (67013) despite holding internal v3/v4 forecasts 4.80x to 5.00x wider (1.925 to 2.003 km) and withholding autonomous Starlink clearance (M_Starlink = 0, W_X36 = 1, W_COSMOS = 0), legally freezing X36 under David Goldman's 2023 FCC Condition 16 (DA 23-797).
* Rational Russian exercise across a 363.7 km blind gap required ex-ante certainty of K = (E1, E2, E3). Across all 5 capability levers, SpaceX is the sole actor (N = 1): Posterior = 99.893% to 99.978% (Tier A floor; 1 in 3,748 to 17,841) and up to 99.999% (Tier B K-set).
2. Four-Way Tracker Blindness & What NRO/USSF Saw Live (Page 2):
* Public Catalogs (18th/19th SDS): Blind for 21.824 hours (363.7 km unobserved closure) on sprint (k6 to k7) and 19.385 hours on brake (k9 to k10, -382.71 km SGP4 delta).
* Russian Ground Radars (SKKP Krona/Okno): Bounded by Earth curvature at 541 km to a 22.8 degree (2,530 km) horizon cone, blind for 8 to 10 hours/day (80% to 94.5% of the orbit) with zero Americas/Pacific coverage.
* The Sole Unblinded Commercial Panopticon: Only SpaceX's Stargaze (31,000 star trackers, 40M+ daily tracks, 17M associated, 850 sightings/day, 7 to 15 min global custody / 99.73% 10-min hit rate) and sub-1-minute Space Safety portal (Appendix A & Section 4(b), with Chinese operators onboarded Oct 6 & 16) had real-time visibility across the blind gap, while NRO & USSF watch floors watched live on the classified High Accuracy Catalog (HAC / Space Fence / Vantor WorldView NEI), realizing 348 Starshield satellites in orbit (245 NRO spy satellites) sit on the same SpaceX bus.
3. Contracted Capacity Is Not Combat Availability & The 6-Way C2 Collapse (Page 3):
* Combat Output = Sensor Availability x Link Availability x Platform Availability x Permission Arriving Before Mission Window Closes (T_permission <= T_mission).
* The Two-Pronged Pincer: SpaceX weaponized FCC Condition 16 to freeze the Sensor Layer in orbit and a Commercial ToS ($500 liability cap) to blind the Transport Layer on the ground.
* 70-90 km/h Civilian Baseline vs. 4 Collapsed Alibis: Civilian Starlink in Ukraine was already capped at 70 to 90 km/h since Feb 2026 (S. Beskrestnov). The Oct 13-24 101 to 161 km/h gate hit DoD-contracted military Starshield links (-23.0% USF hits; Oct 19 Nova Vodolaha strike). Musk cycled through 4 contradicting alibis in 12 days (blaming DoD/POTUS Oct 14 -> ToS offensive loophole Oct 24 -> "sympathy for poor Russian conscripts" Oct 25 -> Russian ASAT/debris fear Oct 26), while resolving the exact same "weapon ToS" objection on U.S. LUCAS suicide drones in Iran via a 5x price hike ($5,000 to $25,000/mo)!
* COCO vs. GOGO ($8.8B+ Sign-Off Chain): Under Contractor-Owned, Contractor-Operated (COCO/OTA) deals signed off by Pete Hegseth, Stephen Feinberg, CTO Emil Michael, Lt. Gen. Philip Garrant, Gen. Michael Guetlein, Col. Ryan Frazier, Clare Hopper & NRO's Dr. Chris Scolese, taxpayers fund the satellites while SpaceX's civilian NOC retains 100% of the physical thruster and velocity kill-switches.
(Continued in Post 2: Pages 4 & 5: Statutory Breach Matrix, CTO Emil Michael's $7M-$35M OGE Clock, the $19.5B SpaceX Bailout Loop, Iran Round Two Magazine Depletion & Subpoena Schedule. Full PDF link in Post 3 👇) $SPCX $TSLA
Tim retweeted
.@the_andrey_x and I were charged with assault, along with five other offenses. After being kept up all night and interrogated for seven hours, we finally saw a judge. He watched the footage and concluded it was clearly a one-sided attack and that we were the victims. His response was to ban us from the West Bank for two months, let the police keep my phone, and bring no charges against the settlers he had just watched attack us.
Hi, I'm free.
Beat up but fine. Police stole my phone. Settlers punched me in the face several times, likely broke @AdeleShoko's wrist and gave @the_andrey_x a concussion. They threatened to shoot us with an assault rifle over and over.
Will tell the full story later, but for now, I just want to be clear about what happened. We witnessed two settlers locking a military gate in Umm al-Khair, blocking the only way to more than twenty Palestinian communities: trapping families inside, preventing students from reaching school and workers from their jobs, blocking delivery of food and access to ambulances, etc.
It's a crime that the military has this ability at all--but last night, we discovered that random settler terrorists also have the key. We confronted them and began asking questions on camera, and they nearly murdered us for it. When the police finally arrived, they arrested Andrey and me and charged us with assault.
The gate is still locked.
Tim retweeted
Everybody in replies, “you think there is a secret cabal of Hyperscalers cooperating to obscure actual compute utilization and copy each others price increases” like I’m talking about aliens.
Meanwhile the millions of hours spent colluding and designing finance structures meant to obscure underlying economics and transfer risk to outside shareholders via SPVs can be seen in the chart below. And many of these deals have participation from 3+ Hyperscalers on the same deal. Nearly everybody on the chart has a $100B+ economic interest in Anthropic alone.
But sure - they don’t talk about how to steer the AI narrative in the Anthropic board meeting they all attend, they aren’t hiding anything, and they would never agree to copy each others pricing moves.
It's amazing how much of a heavy lift the GPU pricing index is doing to keep the AI bubble from popping.
This is maybe the single most opaque corner of AI - nobody actually knows how much capacity is available. A small cartel of hyperscalers holding 95% of installed AI compute tells you that "compute is scarce" and keeps marking up the pricelist to support the narrative required to make the Anthropic IPO float, yet the only neocloud with transparent real time pricing shows compute available and CHEAP.
No way to independently verify hyperscaler utilization rates. Just the same trust me bro that has proven time and again to be utter BS.
Ultimately, nothing is really preventing them from keeping prices high at the expense of utilization for the foreseeable future, but this will eventually come out in the financials as revenue misses relative to implied index pricing.
Tim retweeted
SpaceX Blocked A U.S. And NATO Satellite to Assist a Russian Intercept After Crippling Ukraine's Air Defenses
The Math Proves the Reality that Musk doesn't want you to see.
On Oct 13-14, SpaceX restricted Starshield/Starlink during a 39-missile Russian attack, cutting Ukrainian drone intercepts by 23% and stranding U.S. personnel in Kyiv. Forty-eight hours later (Oct 15), SpaceX blocked U.S.-licensed NRO, Space Force, and NATO radar satellite ICEYE-X36 in orbit so Russia's COSMOS 2612 weapon could intercept it (99.89%-99.98% posterior)
Our Model Demonstrates that the Russian intercept of the US/NATO ICEYE X-36 satellite (contemporaneous with the throttling of Starlink) would not have been possible, and almost certainly not been attempted, without SpaceX resources. At a material opportunity cost, Russia sprinted its COSMOS satellite to intercept ICEYE X36. Based on a previous attempt in June during which X36 maneuvered to evade COSMOS, Russia knew that this would be successful only if X36 could not maneuver. On October 15, SpaceX fixed X36 in place by issuing a collision alert for a sub-kilometer approach with its Starlink 35856 when SpaceX's own data shows that the actual distance was 4.8-5.0x as great. SpaceX issued no warning to COSMOS despite the fact that its sprint was far more threatening than the stable X36 orbit. SpaceX did not maneuver its Starlink 35856 satellite to clear the supposed collision risk. How, absent coordination with SpaceX, could Russia have known that SpaceX would take actions that (a) misrepresented the danger posed by X36, and (b) resulted in the fixing of X36 thereby enabling COSMOS's successful intercept? Thus, SpaceX was directly involved in simultaneously compromising Ukraine’s defensive and offensive capabilities. The conjunction of these two events makes innocent explanations untenable.
The Pentagon Capture & Iran Round Two Trap: Pentagon CTO Emil Michael who cashed out $7M–$35M from Musk’s inner-circle SpaceX vehicles (M8/Gigafund 0.1 and M6/Valor M33 II) and KQ Partners / xAI (selling xAIfor $5M–$25M three days before taking over CDAO/OSCand 21 days before SpaceX bought xAI, while keeping M8, M6, M9, M10 & Nomadic open) and Pete Hegseth purged rival Anthropic in two hours, surrendered combat command over US drones used to attack Iran to Starlink’s "Terms of Service," and on October 2 named Musk Co-Director of Project Meridian to design the Pentagon's "Future of Warfighting" just as America enters Iran Round Twowith depleted Patriot/THAAD magazines and Russia feeding U.S. warship/aircraft locations to Tehran.
SpaceX’s actions in Ukraine raise serious questions about its alignment with US security interests and its reliability as a cornerstone of US defense. These questions are particularly troubling given the effectively irreplaceable position SpaceX has been granted by the Hegseth/Emil Michael Pentagon.
$SPCX $TSLA
Our full quantitative analysis below w/ @streetwiseprof
Tim retweeted
Spacex reported yesterday night. The stock is indicated up 10%
Let me recap coz i am laughing my ass
1) Elon anounced an ARR of 500bn to 1tn for 27 for AI. 3q26 ARR for AI is 30bn
2) elon announced 20GW build in 2027. Spacex uses Nvidia only. 1GW of Vera rubin is 40b
1/n
Tim retweeted
Analyst #3 is historically a sicko
Tim retweeted
Baby Anhelina and her mom Inna were killed by Russia yesterday.
Anhelina was just over a year old. Her mom, Inna Mariukhna, was a primary school teacher. They were in the park in Nova Vodolaha, Kharkiv region, when a Russian drone attacked.
Little Anhelina was killed in her stroller. Her mom died of her injuries in hospital.
Another girl killed in the strike was just 11 years old.
Six people lost their lives from that Russian strike. All of them had simply been spending time in the park. At least 15 more were injured, including seven kids.
Deepest condolences...
Tim retweeted
Hi, sorry to call at such short notice but our sketch artist has fallen ill, was wondering if you could step in, it says on your profile that you do sketch work...
Well I normally only draw Giraffes but I guess how hard can it be, sure I'll do it.
Maduro pleads not guilty to new torture-related charges in New York bbc.in/4imkbGG
Tim retweeted
Here is a replication of the graph followed by a different version of it that, rather than plotting absolute levels, plots what share of the national wealth those levels represented at that time. Very different picture.
