Crypto Enthusiast, PhD Engineering. Contents are Not financial advice.
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Joined June 2022
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Crypto Boy retweeted
Bitcoin looks to be in the process of dumping into its Q4 low.
Prior midterm years had a low in Q1 (often Feb), a low in the summer, and a low in Q4.
This time does not look different.
Crypto Boy retweeted
Stock Market Correction: Q4 2026
youtube.com/watch?v=BBgxp2Sv…
Crypto Boy retweeted
Bitcoin and Stocks: Q4 Dump nitter.gq/i/spaces/1ZBXKebJbBQvd…
Crypto Boy retweeted
Tech stocks are in an absolute freefall!
The Nasdaq is down 4% as chipmakers & AI infrastructure stocks slide.
Here's the damage:
- AMD: −13%
- CoreWeave: −11%
- Nvidia: −6.9%
- Cisco: −5.2%
What's happening?
- Democrats' midterm sweep raised fears of tighter AI regulation & restrictions on new data centers.
- Investors are questioning whether Big Tech's massive AI spending will generate sufficient returns.
Next signal to watch is hyperscaler capex guidance.
One downward revision could have consequences well beyond a single stock.
Crypto Boy retweeted
#BTC and #SILVER went up about the same amount in the bull market (just different paths to get there).
Perhaps they bottom around the same level too (just different paths to get there).
Bitcoin historically goes below both the realized price and balanced price in bear markets (neither of which have happened yet). Though we have been getting closer and closer each cycle to not taking out the balanced price, so I would not be so deterministic about that.
Just keep those risks in mind in Q4 and don't lose sight of the bigger picture.
Could see both doing well next year once this drop is over.
Crypto Boy retweeted
Intel's collapse is INSANE.
The stock is down over 27% overnight.
The reason: AI is eating the PC market.
Memory supply is going to AI data centres. PC prices spike, demand craters, & the slump runs into 2027.
The stock doubled this year on AI hopes. AI is what killed it.
Not looking good for the US market open today.
Crypto Boy retweeted
The FTX exchange crash marked the bottom for Bitcoin in the 2022 bear market.
The Binance hack will mark the bottom for BTC in the 2026 bear market.
Position accordingly.
Crypto Boy retweeted
This should go without saying, but usually the time to sell Bitcoin (if you are going to) is Q4 of post-halving years, not during the Q4 dump of midterm years.
Usually the Q4 dump of midterm years just provide opportunities to buy for those who sold long ago.
While many people will have you believe all sorts of things, I was clear that Q4 2025 was the top and that the accumulation phase started (in my mind) on July 1st, 2026 (with the potential for a Q4 drop like we typically see in midterm years).
nitter.gq/benjamincowen/status/2…
Crypto Boy retweeted
Looks like Bitcoin finally made it to the bull market support band.
Note that TOTAL2, TOTAL3, MSTR, SPX, and NDQ all gave the signal that BTC would move this direction last week.
Crypto Boy retweeted
✅-Bitcoin weekly close below $83k (again)
✅-Fakeout confirmed (Oct 25)
✅-Fed does not raise rates (Oct 28)
-PCE comes in hot (Oct 29)
-Oil spikes over the Iran war (~$120)
-Long end goes up (10Y back to 5.3%)
-Stocks drop
-Bitcoin drops in Q4 of midterm year (like always)
-Long end drops before EOY
A plausible path to consider (in order).
Becomes void if Bitcoin gets and holds back above $83k
-Bitcoin weekly close below $83k (again)
-Fakeout confirmed (Oct 25)
-Fed does not raise rates (Oct 28)
-PCE comes in hot (Oct 29)
-Oil spikes over the Iran war (~$120)
-Long end goes up (10Y back to 5.3%)
-Stocks drop
-Bitcoin drops in Q4 of midterm year (like always)
-Long end drops before EOY
Crypto Boy retweeted
With a second weekly close below the May high, Bitcoin is likely to drop to its bull market support band very soon.
Note that TOTAL2, TOTAL3, SPX, NDQ, MSTR are already at their BMSB.
Crypto Boy retweeted
A plausible path to consider (in order).
Becomes void if Bitcoin gets and holds back above $83k
-Bitcoin weekly close below $83k (again)
-Fakeout confirmed (Oct 25)
-Fed does not raise rates (Oct 28)
-PCE comes in hot (Oct 29)
-Oil spikes over the Iran war (~$120)
-Long end goes up (10Y back to 5.3%)
-Stocks drop
-Bitcoin drops in Q4 of midterm year (like always)
-Long end drops before EOY
Crypto Boy retweeted
Brent is approaching a new yearly high.
Certainly causing volatility in risk assets ahead of the midterms
Crypto Boy retweeted
Bitcoin getting a daily close below the 50D SMA likely sends it to the bull market support band.
Note that ETH, MSTR, NDQ, TOTAL2, TOTAL3, etc. are already at the bull market support band.
Crypto Boy retweeted
So Fed does not raise rates in October.
Long end bounces into midterms
Long end drops before December FOMC
Fed raises in December.
Exactly what happened in 2018
