🔴 30-Oct Pennsylvania Early Voting Update 🔴 joeisdone.github.io/pennsylv… "Advantage Trump" is a metric used to measure how much better Donald Trump is performing in the 2024 elections compared to the 2020 elections within a specific area, such as a county. This is calculated by comparing the difference between Democratic and Republican voter percentages (D-R margins) from the two election years. In 2020, Advantage Trump was predictive of winning margins for Florida and North Carolina. In 2024, it is 🔴 R+11.13% in Florida and 🔴 R+7.59% in North Carolina. And today in Pennsylvania, Advantage Trump is a stunning 🔴 R+16.45%. In a state that he lost by 80,000 votes in 2020, he has closed the early voting gap from 1,100,488 votes to a mere 381,019. I expect the gap to hold steady or continue to shrink slightly. A lot has been discussed about the "firewall" number of 500,000 🔵 Democrats + net Democratic-leaning 🟡 independents - the margin which Democrats allegedly need to win Election Day. This firewall number is, frankly, 💩. First, we are already below that number at 426,183. Second, the firewall implicitly assumes that all these missing Democratic mail-requests are going to vote on Election Day. I'll tell you where these missing Democratic votes are. They're in Philadelphia County. Not only does Philadelphia County have among the lowest percentage of Democratic VBM requests at 23.37%, it has among lowest percentage of Democratic returns as well at 67.55%. If Philadelphia County matched neighboring Montgomery County at 36.54% Democratic request rate and 71.21% Democratic returns, they'd have 208,679 votes. But as it stands - they have only 126,592 votes. That's at least 82,087 🔵 D missing votes. Note on my map that these votes are coming from the city edges, but just aren't being returned from the city proper. It's safe to say that Philadelphia County just isn't coming out for Harris. Between this quantifiable lack of Democratic enthusiasm, and the fact that most Republicans remain Election Day only voters with a low cannibalization factor, early voting data is going insanely strong there.