Posts are for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Always DYOR.
Joined November 2021
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Tom Capital retweeted
To stop this madness all @AlboMP has to do is fix the sex discrimination act with any one of the bills by Michaelia Cash, Pauline Hanson or Allison Penfold, or Labor can create their own, & make it clear that no man can identify into the legal class of woman for any reason, women are adult human females & sex is biological not legal. He could do it today.
This isn’t a culture war, Mr Prime Minister, this is a culture gone awry.
The RBNZ baulked at hiking today despite the rates market pricing a 90% probability. NZD dropped ~2% on it.
Worth remembering that priced and delivered are two different things.
Which makes the Fed interesting here. Yields have come substantially lower, the rates market has maybe a 10% chance of a hike, inflation still hasn’t gone anywhere and the midterms sitting right in front of them.
A hike in that window would be the loudest statement on independence a central bank could make, while doing the job on inflation at the same time.
Two birds, one stone.
Just saying.
$AUDUSD
“Demand across the economy needs to remain subdued for longer.”
That’s YOUR demand. Your mortgage, your rent, your grocery spend. That’s the lever, and make no mistake they will keep pulling it.
25bp locked in for Melbourne Cup Day. The market has terminal at 4.99% by May 2027 — and then almost nothing. Barely 10bp of easing priced across the following eighteen months.
So they’ve found the top and haven’t begun to think about the other side. That’s the repricing that’s coming.
All of it to fix a policy mistake they made themselves. Rates too low for too long post-COVID, inflation never contained, while the Govt spends like a drunken sailor to hold onto power.
Same view on AUD. Seller of strength into 0.7050/0.7100 for now.
Tom Capital retweeted
Two sides to every coin. AI/Robotics is simply a more EV+ investment than BTC at currently prices due to custody risk, quantum risk and centralization. I've said this for the past 2 years.
I DO believe that $BTC is a function of liquidity and will ultimately serve as a bearer asset in the inflationary years ahead...making a new all time high. But first, it needs to go down in price by ALOT to find buyers.
A brutal year for Bitcoin is just getting started.
Give me three minutes to explain why you should dump it now.
Outflows from ETFs are signal and will continue.
We will test the 57k low again in the next 12 months.
Why?
Because there are far too many dynamic places to put your money that are creating MUCH more value.
Why put your resources into a dead network that offers nothing beyond a store of value?
What's the point of place the BTC be if Bitcoin's Ponzi-scheme nature has gone away!?!
The viral nature of bitcoin was it's power... if you didn't own you were MOCKED!
Now? Completely reasonable, heck, SMARTER, to ignore bitcoin and place other bets!
No one is trying to convince people to buy Bitcoin anymore... the memes and NFTs are gone.
No one is saying $ BTC can change the world, because it won't — and BECAUSE AI HAS!
Just sell and shift from Bitcoin to Super Intelligence because one provides little to no value, and the other provides unlimited upside for humanity.
This should be obvious to everyone right now.
Bitcoin will never break its all-time high again.
Tom Capital retweeted
I have to leave Australia so I can actually run a start-up exclusively for women while men who claim to be women have BREASTFEEDING PROTECTIONS IN LAW🤬
The current government, including representatives of the attorney-general, have no plans to fix it. They’re happy to admit it:
$AUDUSD
75% priced for another RBA hike on Melbourne Cup day.
I haven’t seen the RBA run this much publicity into a decision before. That isn’t information, it’s narrative management, softening up Mums and Dads ahead of the pain.
It isn’t complicated either. Population growth is too strong for an economy this size and government spending is too high. But there’s ZERO political appetite to slow either one, because neither side survives doing it. So the Government lets the RBA carry it using the only tool that hits households directly.
The futures market is caught short AUD, so a hike gives you the pump. That’s the short-term trade and it’s why every breakdown keeps failing. But the thing causing the pump is the same thing killing growth, and growth is what the currency eventually has to price. AUDUSD remains a sell on strength, targeting 0.7050/0.7100 area
And dont forget to thank Jim and Albo when you’re struggling to fill the trolley and cover the mortgage in the months to come
@AlboMP
👀🤮
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
Traders have their work cut out for them this week with rate decisions from the FED, BOC, ECB, BOJ, RBNZ
Also the busiest week for US earnings with 1/3 of the S&P componenets due to report
Good luck🫡
Monday, Oct. 26
South Korea GDP A
German IFO survey
Tuesday, Oct. 27
China industrial profits
US durable goods orders, consumer confidence and new home sales
Wednesday, Oct. 28
Australia CPI
RBNZ interest rate decision
SK Hynix earnings
UK budget
BOC interest rate decision
Federal Reserve interest rate decision
Microsoft and Alphabet earnings
Thursday, Oct. 29
Samsung earnings
ECB interest rate decision
US GDP A, personal income, personal spending, core PCE and jobless claims
Amazon and Intel earnings
Friday, Oct. 30
BOJ interest rate decision
Tokyo CPI, retail sales and industrial production
Euro-area GDP A
Germany and France CPI P
US employment cost index
Tom Capital retweeted
You know, take the week. Or the month. Scratch that. How about never going on social media again? While you’re at it you could stop trying to censor it. Doing both might help your mental health. I genuinely mean that
$AUDUSD
Big rally in USTs (10y −15bp) and the yen, despite Brent +$3 on the day (US$113/bbl) and the S&P only off −1.3%.
Looks like an unjustifiably large move in bonds until you see where the damage actually is. Nasdaq −3%, Meta −7%. This isn’t a growth scare. It’s the market putting a question mark over the durability of the AI boom again, and that’s what’s behind the bid.
AUDUSD is the standout. On those moves it has no business above 0.6980, yet it’s sitting comfortably towards monthly highs above 0.7000, held up entirely by the pending hike.
That’s the opportunity. Use the strength to get short. The hike propping it up is the same one that finishes the job on the Australian economy, and once it’s delivered the rates market has nothing left to price.
$USDJPY
This could weigh on USDJPY 👇
The pair already has intervention risk from the short side plus political support for a lower level.
Worth noting what’s happened since CPI. The entire hawkish move has been given back — 2s -7bp, 10s -8.8bp, 30s -7.7bp, DXY back to 102.10. A hot inflation print couldn’t hold yields higher for twenty-four hours.
That tells you something else is driving the bid. Bonds behaving as a genuine hedge against AI trade weakness, overriding the inflation story.
If that holds, yield support for the dollar erodes, particularly with the BOJ still hiking. The rate differential that’s carried this pair starts unwinding from both ends.
Continued seller of strength here.
Wrong above 160.50. Targeting the previous lows at 153, then 150
bitcoin:native 😭
Yields down, USD down, and BTC still couldn’t flip the monthly open and hold it.
Said it yesterday. Reclaim that level and the squeeze means something. Fail there and it’s just another move inside the range.
It failed there.
$BTC
Focus now shifts to the monthly opening levels, BTC and across the crypto majors.
Flip and hold that level and the squeeze becomes far more meaningful. Reclaiming the monthly open turns a bounce off support into something the higher timeframe traders have to respect.
Fail there and it’s just another move inside the range
$BB
This is a good looking chart.
Three months of basing between 7.50 and 9.00 after the drawdown from 13, and it’s just reclaimed the previous month high with the monthly and weekly opens stacked underneath as support.
Everything above the yearly open at 4.00 and well clear of it. Higher lows into resistance, and the levels are clean enough that you know quickly if you’re wrong.
A close and hold above 9.40 and the prior quarter mid at 10.80 comes into play.
Tom Capital retweeted
He used taxpayer funds in an attempt to ruin Helen Haines political career only a few weeks ago and on Monday night he called her ‘A beacon of light’ with ‘the highest integrity’. We all have been let down so badly. My god, no wonder Australia is tanking so hard.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has deflected questions about a reported ‘dirt sheet’ his office compiled on independent MP Helen Haines last month, instead praising her as a “good local member”.
LATEST: bit.ly/4yCgTnz
We launched a faster, redesigned app - with all new puzzles: bit.ly/3RceccM
bitcoin:native 👀
$BTC
Focus now shifts to the monthly opening levels, BTC and across the crypto majors.
Flip and hold that level and the squeeze becomes far more meaningful. Reclaiming the monthly open turns a bounce off support into something the higher timeframe traders have to respect.
Fail there and it’s just another move inside the range
$BTC
Focus now shifts to the monthly opening levels, BTC and across the crypto majors.
Flip and hold that level and the squeeze becomes far more meaningful. Reclaiming the monthly open turns a bounce off support into something the higher timeframe traders have to respect.
Fail there and it’s just another move inside the range
bitcoin:native
Won’t take much to confirm a higher low around the 80k region. The setup is there.
If price is genuinely bullish it holds structure. Then a mildly bullish headline hits the tape, and by the time the influencers catch on and tell you it’s going higher, BTC is already trading above 84k.
That’s how it always works. The move happens, then the narrative arrives to explain it.