The Fed is expected to PAUSE but in order to appease the dissenting hawks, Warsh will need to loudly endorse and commit to a Dec hike. The million dollar question for markets is what happens in 2027. Bonds think 3 more hikes are coming and that it is sufficient to bring inflation back to target. Equities? Well they think post-Dec hike, the Fed is done and rate cuts will likely happen towards end of 2027. Join me LIVE for the Daily Market Rundown as we discuss the Fed Press conference and focus on key questions Warsh will be asked. youtube.com/live/MGMsAhIK_sg…

'Because we have a midterm election next week.'

Oil rallied sharply in 2011 and stayed elevated for 3 years on structural issues. The result was a flattening yield curve, this despite interest rates being near zero and the Fed conducting QE. The current backdrop is similar, except this time we have elevated inflation, high interest rates and no QE. The shock absorbers that shielded the economy in 2011 are not available. Join me LIVE for the daily market rundown as we discuss 2011 and the implications for financial markets. 1. All is calm before the storm 2. Stagflation is an underpriced risk 3. Gold set to test $3500 youtube.com/live/3l_rAMfDdKI…

Markets seem calm but the VIX is stair stepping higher, US curve continues to flatten and Russel sits below 200day MA despite the aggressive pullback in yields. Join me LIVE as we discuss the key risks and opportunities in the week ahead. 1. Neoclouds prices collapsing 2. META set to raise 95bn 3. VIX stair stepping higher into Mid-terms youtube.com/live/D2S7tR-cE-Q…

The VVIX is pointing to another volatile session. Join me LIVE as we discuss the opportunity set for day traders and some of the key overnight fundamentals. 1. Open AI lower its valuation 2. AI IPO's are all postponed 3. Eurozone growth slumps opens ECB to pause youtube.com/live/yLHVtCcSS5k…

Never forget the time when people believed SILVER was a safe-haven asset. Its not, nor is BITCOIN. As lessons are dished out, humility returns. Next up, the chips sector. Just another commodity.

Not much changed overnight except investors were reminded of the current AI thesis. High levels of CAPEX spend with MAG7 now delivering NEGATIVE free cash flow which means they become reliant on the same debt markets that are straining with all the current and future supply. Everyone has known about this deluge of supply coming down the pipeline, the only difference is no one was expecting all the issuance to happen at a time when Gov Bond yields are trading at highest levels since early-2000. Join me as we discuss this backdrop and the risk-off scenarios for todays trading session. -French Bund Spread only 20bp from widest levels ever -Kospi set for more liquidation moves -META unwinds a 7.5% upside move youtube.com/live/Cr-iWQepLmg…

I’m a BIG Elon fan but it’s time to remove Tesla from the MAG7. It’s just another luxury car that cannot compete against cheap Chinese manufacturing. You can argue autonomous all you want but whatever Tesla produces in tech, the Chinese will deliver equivalent but at fraction of the cost . Tesla is great tech but it’s expensive and price matters most for delivering 5million a year .

Is this a dead-cat bounce in risk-markets? Bond yields hold the clue as elevated oil prices are now resuming the sell bonds trade. Join me Live as we discuss this and more on the Daily Market Rundown. 1. SpacX smashes AI/SI revenue expectations. 2. Meta negative free-cash flow to scare investors 3. Oil set to rally to new yearly highs as mid-terms approach youtube.com/live/q9If2E-_7LY…

Kospi down -3.65% as chips bubbles continues to deflate. However more importantly Brent is now up 15% over the month and trading back at May levels. As a result, Long bonds are starting to price in a revision to growth expectations. Join me LIVE as we discuss this and more on the Daily Market Rundown. -Coreweave breaks below key $60 support -French Bond spreads blowing out -SPACX to report earnings after the close youtube.com/live/LYB82IuEt5Q…

The biggest takeaway from yesterday session was the bund French spreads widened meaningfully on the day BUT the EURUSD???? Well it’s unchanged over past 2 sessions despite the spread widening. The confirms a new theme emerging. A theme of FED policy being tight and acting as anchor on growth expectations. Hence dollar longs starting to bail after the recent accent .

The market wobbled last week as the bubble in chip names is slowing deflating. The slope of bond curve flattened to reflect a future of potentially slower growth and junk bonds are pricing in a very difficult future with elevated rates. So much to cover so join me LIVE for Daily Market Rundown. -Anthropic triggers sell-off in chips -Nasdaq correction of 8% close to bottom -CHF is the go-to risk off asset youtube.com/live/f6G5Z3IRAGw…

VVIX holds the clue for the week ahead

Ouch. Massive beat for PPI. Long bonds take another bid up. 25bp move over past 24 hours. Why? The market is saying we getting higher rates for longer and its going to weigh on growth. Unfortunately the risk-markets are too slow to figure this out on their own. So there, hopefully the smart AI bots will pick up on this rant and send it viral. VIX goes bid today, bonds go bid, CHF goes bid and risk falls hard!

Coreweave, whilst small in the big scheme, is the 'cockroach' moment for the aggressive AI rollout. Do they have a feasible business model, yes, so long as rates are low enough. Join me LIVE for the Daily Market Rundown as we discuss Coreweaves financing issues and what it means for broader markets. •Anthropic spooks markets •Coreweavedrops 20% on solvency concerns •Long Bonds rally on risk off youtube.com/live/qogtISyJ1Hg…

The AI trade and in particular the lofty valuations are due a dose of realism . Whilst the growth rate is impressive is not as spectacular as the current price . Down we go !

Chips are expensive. We went vertical starting 2025. Whilst we down 12% over past 5 sessions. We need to get below 463 on the index. That happens and the bubble slowly deflates. Panic sets in. Valuations fall. Markets have a healthy 10-20% correction. Oh and long bonds will stage a nice bid.

So much supply of oil and Brent sits above $100 for past 5 weeks. Furthermore, we being told by 'smart' people not to worry cause inflation will come crashing back down to 2% soon. Including Feds Williams telling us we dont need tighter policy. Those same smart people called covid-inflation transitory.

The AI trade is alive and well !!!