'Playing off around previous weeks highs and lows (over a 2 week lookback period) - youll see some very interesting inflection points around them...'
Let the liquidity games continue...
Flat into the weekend...
Majority of my trades have been intraweek rotations and that is the environment we're in and likely to continue in.
Playing off around previous weeks highs and lows (over a 2 week lookback period) - youll see some very interesting inflection points around them...
Have a fab and blessed weekend all...
Well we got the push up into 84s ✔️
Many alts saw a short covering rally with late longs entering ✔️
…. I believe they’re about to unwind much more but for now playing the ranges on zec and pumpfun aka z-trash and pump-trash
I’d keep a watch on the daily 12/21/25 EMA’s on bitcoin and failure to hold price around the 81.5-82s becomes problematic.
Same applies to alts… flow with price
GM
Quite the doom posts on the timeline over the weekend.
Many alts look somewhat oversold for their respective down rotations.
Would like to see how Mondays range develops and if btc can push onto 83-84 then alts should react - squeezing out late shorts which often leads to an aggressive rotation higher…
It’s then a question of if buyers are willing to step in there after or if alts are there to be sold on a lower high across the board - personally leaning towards there being room to bid them and risk off again into next weeks FOMC - but that’s just a loosely held opinion.
Flat on all perps play except core hedges against spot
Good luck
👍
GM
Quite the doom posts on the timeline over the weekend.
Many alts look somewhat oversold for their respective down rotations.
Would like to see how Mondays range develops and if btc can push onto 83-84 then alts should react - squeezing out late shorts which often leads to an aggressive rotation higher…
It’s then a question of if buyers are willing to step in there after or if alts are there to be sold on a lower high across the board - personally leaning towards there being room to bid them and risk off again into next weeks FOMC - but that’s just a loosely held opinion.
Flat on all perps play except core hedges against spot
Good luck
GM
Quite the doom posts on the timeline over the weekend.
Many alts look somewhat oversold for their respective down rotations.
Would like to see how Mondays range develops and if btc can push onto 83-84 then alts should react - squeezing out late shorts which often leads to an aggressive rotation higher…
It’s then a question of if buyers are willing to step in there after or if alts are there to be sold on a lower high across the board - personally leaning towards there being room to bid them and risk off again into next weeks FOMC - but that’s just a loosely held opinion.
Flat on all perps play except core hedges against spot
Good luck
Flat into the weekend...
Majority of my trades have been intraweek rotations and that is the environment we're in and likely to continue in.
Playing off around previous weeks highs and lows (over a 2 week lookback period) - youll see some very interesting inflection points around them...
Have a fab and blessed weekend all...
$SOL
You tell me...
$SOL
Tagged the Y/O almost to the tick... personally positioned short from the area - gives me downside cover against my spot play.
What matters now is the character of any sell-off. Do we roll over with momentum and acceptance lower, or spend the coming weeks ranging and distributing?
The measured move on this rally is similar to March- April 2022 - but the macro structure coming into the respective lows is significantly different to that of 2022.
I'm increasingly interested in whether we're beginning to develop a much larger, multi-month structural range between the 60s and 120s. If so, the environment becomes far more rotational, plenty of opportunity on both sides rather than a market that demands a persistent directional bias.
That's currently where I lean.
The alternative is equally simple: this is consolidation before another leg higher.
125s remains my line in the sand above here and I flip - back under again... will sell again
Over the years, I've developed a fairly good read on markets approaching significant highs, and potential turning points.
I've been on the right side of those decisions consistently over the last several years as far back as 2021 highs, and that matters to me because it preserves my PnL.
We all want to capture the upside.... but the prospect of further gains blinds participants to the increasingly asymmetric downside risks developing - I'm also convinced theres just far too much bullish tweeting into resistance for "being liked" ... its just dogshit trading - see it happen over and over again - usual accounts - free pass etc...
"Kahneman and Tversky famously observed that losses loom larger than gains, with the psychological impact of a loss often estimated at roughly twice that of an equivalent gain.
But beyond the psychology, there's a mathematical reality to drawdowns. Lose 50% and you need 100% just to get back to even"
The objective isn't to be right at every turn. It's to remain in the game long enough for your edge to compound... not solely relying up on luck - or bundling shitters as a fake trader...
$ZEC
Looking at this objectively, assume I'm flat despite maintaining a bearish bias.
Why step in as a buyer while price remains capped by the bands?
Even a breakout that establishes a lower high before rejecting back through the bands would favour downside continuation.
I'd only consider a mean-reversion long once price becomes sufficiently extended below the bands to offer attractive asymmetry.
Stay aligned with the prevailing auction.
As for those comfortable holding because they're still up multiples, fair enough. But surrendering 50% from peak equity simply because you're still profitable isn't particularly intelligent risk management.
Nevertheless - brilliant shitcoin to trade in terms of volatility...
$BTC and Alts
Thus far, price has largely played out as anticipated and in line with how I've positioned tactically.
Nowadays, I use charts more as a compass to frame areas of interest. Execution itself comes down to reading flows, positioning and how participants respond at key inflection points.
As for Bitcoin, keeping things relatively simple.
The September 21 breakout origin around 81.7k fuelled by short liquidations saw price push into 87s.
We've since rotated back into that area and tested it several times - (confluent with mondays lows)
In a market showing genuine upside conviction, you'd generally expect buyers to defend that origin and establish acceptance higher. Repeated tests without meaningful upside displacement aren't particularly encouraging from a tactical perspective.
Doesn't necessarily mean we break down, but it does raise questions about the underlying strength of demand....
For now, I'm positioned and hedged for potential downside continuation.
Acceptance back above the 85s would have me reassess and begin rolling off the hedge.
Equally, I'm interested in buying opportunities, but I'd want to see a shift in momentum, evidence of buyers stepping in with conviction and an ability to sustain higher prices....
Ultimately, no attachment to a directional bias. It's about recognising where the balance of control sits, how that changes and positioning accordingly.
If looks like a range, trades like a range then it probably is a _ _ _ _ _
Cheers
The StochRSI
When an indicator remains overbought for weeks without convincing price expansion or high-volume continuation, I become increasingly cautious of downside risk...
The indicator isn't actionable in isolation, but helps me determine when to be aggressive versus defensive...
I generally use it as a mechanical oscillator along with htf supply and demand zones
But ultimately - a trade strategy and its execution is what is more important.
Bitcoin and various alts... exhibiting signs of the weekly stoch remaining overbought at the moment...
👍
From a trading asymmetric risk-reward perspective, I find the downside in equities increasingly attractive - and has most of my attention whilst I let short positions on alt playout if theyre heading lower...
With PPI on the horizon, it sets up for an interesting session tomorrow into Friday - be agile....
To be continued...
Good luck imho...
On my count
It’s week number 9
Alts that were losing momentum and distributing are exhibiting signs of breaking down
Laggards - final few still running - musical chairs….
I’ve been quite vocal about my view on alt cycles…. More so the last few weeks from weeks 6-8…
To be convinced it’s any different this time around….
You’ll get the odd anomaly or two…
From a trading asymmetric risk-reward perspective, I find the downside in equities increasingly attractive - and has most of my attention whilst I let short positions on alt playout if theyre heading lower...
With PPI on the horizon, it sets up for an interesting session tomorrow into Friday - be agile....
XO retweeted
Trading intra day flow is a peak performance sport
The probs with anything peak performance is not to reach the level, but to maintain it for any duration of time
It's not that it cant be done
But rather most can not do it
That's why most traders who take that path fail
1/x
Flat into the weekend...
Majority of my trades have been intraweek rotations and that is the environment we're in and likely to continue in.
Playing off around previous weeks highs and lows (over a 2 week lookback period) - youll see some very interesting inflection points around them...
Have a fab and blessed weekend all...
