Without rules, an open position becomes a fresh decision every morning. Do I still like it? Has the story changed? Should I take some off? That's a lot of decisions to keep getting right. Plan the trade. Trade the plan.

Get Comfortable Being Uncomfortable trendandturtle.substack.com/… Giving back open profits makes you want to do something. But feeling uncomfortable isn’t an exit signal. Process over prediction.

Episode 8 is out — The Cost of Trend Following. Whipsaws. Drawdowns. Giving back profits. The big trends have a price. Watch: youtu.be/zrUUZzgDBR8 Process over Prediction.

Makes me think of a few lines from one of my favorite passages in Reminiscences of a Stock Operator: "The weaknesses that all men are prone to are fatal to success in speculation..." “The speculator’s chief enemies are always boring from within.” “Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he must hope.” "He must fear that his loss may develop into a much bigger loss, and hope that his profit may become a big profit." Jesse Livermore

Episode 8 of Trend & Turtle is finished. The Cost of Trend Following. Whipsaws. Drawdowns. Giving back profits. Making mistakes. And learning what it really takes to keep following the rules. Out tomorrow morning. Process over prediction.

Luck Runs in Streaks youtube.com/watch?v=Bk1nRMUB… An old friend used to tell me that. I never considered myself a lucky person. Lately, I’ve been reconsidering that. The latest chapter of The Journey: Process over prediction.

My latest Substack: Ready. Fire. Aim. trendandturtle.substack.com Process over prediction.

solid!

Episode 9 of Trend & Turtle is recorded — and the latest Substack letter with a clip is out: trendandturtle.substack.com How a two-ATR move can mean nothing, while a quarter-ATR move can mean everything. Ask yourself - Is today a trade day? Process over Prediction.

I remember feeling a little like this on Day 1. Standing there looking out at something pretty big, with absolutely no idea where it was going to take me. 150 days in. The experiment continues. Process over prediction.

Getting ready to sit down with Jerry tomorrow to record another episode of Trend & Turtle. We’re about 150 days into the experiment — and the questions are getting more interesting. Shorts. Sample size. AI. And some real trades currently in the mix. Plenty to talk about. Process over prediction.

This has become a recurring theme in my conversations with Jerry @rjpjr12 - Do the hard thing. Don’t change the rules just to make yourself more comfortable. Don’t justify the mistakes. Be honest with yourself. Pure gold.

The system has no emotions. The trader does. The challenge isn’t eliminating them. It’s keeping them from making the decisions. Process over performance.

“Loose pants” wasn’t exactly on my trend-following syllabus. But the lesson behind it is a good one. Give the trade room. Follow the rules. Stay with it. Process over Prediction.

All work and no play… Been putting a lot of time into Trend & Turtle lately. But this is one of the reasons I moved to the Outer Banks. A fishing rod, Bear and a little time on the beach.

Edwin Lefèvre’s Livermore-inspired character in Reminiscences of a Stock Operator spoke about one of the more counterintuitive things about trading. @rjpjr12 on how human nature hasn't changed much. Process over Prediction.

Thinking about giving away a little piece of trading floor history…One of my original clerk jackets from my days on the floor. Anyone interested?

Blew up a couple small trading accounts along the way. The old timers called it tuition. At the time, it sure didn't feel like an education. Looking back, I learned a lot more from those losses than I realized. Process over Prediction.

Most of my career in markets everything has felt immediate. The next tick. The next trade. The next headline. One of the harder things I’m learning now is to think differently about time. Not everything needs to happen today. Progress doesn't happen all at once.

The system can be simple. Sticking with it isn't. One thing I'm learning is just how difficult it can be to trust the process when things aren't going your way. That's when the real test begins. Process over prediction.