Swing Trader, Software Engineer | Founder of https://nitter.gq/t.co/6AQ2nxv8KV 馃搱馃搳
North Carolina, USA
Joined October 2018
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Heading into next week, I feel the current Trend Edge Market Consensus of Bullish + Hold is warranted.
We remain in a cyclical (med-term) & secular (long-term) bull market; with just the swing (near-term) being a bear.
Otherwise:
- On the bearish side, breadth has been poor and deteriorating since May, and indices have JUST now started catching up. Additionally, the Trend Edge AD Line is barely hanging above the March lows do-or-die breaking point.
- On the bullish side, we are entering the strongest 3-month stretch, even stronger given the rising 20-month SMA in $SPX. Additionally, Retail sentiment and fear has had a healthy spike.
- There are plenty of standout bullish stocks but most of them are in no man's land.
I will be watching for a few scenarios:
- Bullish Scenario A: Quick recapture of the Trend Edge AD Line 80-week SMA, confirming the higher-low relative to March, and seasonal buyers stepping in
- Bullish Scenario B: Another week or two of 'controlled demolition' to further spike retail fear and reset major indices to their 80-week SMAs.
- Bearish Scenario: Continued weakness through November (strong weekly opens, weak weekly closes) along with the Trend Edge AD Line losing the March low.
I think tha Bullish Scenario B is the most likely, and will be planning accordingly.
Highlighting some standouts from the Trend Edge Bullish/Bearish Selects screens - 11.08.2026
Trend Edge Weekly Insights - 11.08.26
Our AI Market Consensus maintains a BULLISH + HOLD recommendation.
Reasoning as follows:
"A roughly 10% pullback is testing the market's (Trend Edge US Stock Universe Index) rising 40-week trend line on genuinely weak breadth, while fresh extreme fear and a favorable November-to-January seasonal window set up a dip-buy that still needs price confirmation."
$SBRA $5.5B mc founder-led healthcare $XLV REIT $IYR with back-to-back accumulations off $20 volume shelf and rising 40/80-week SMAs. Room to run with a freshly rising 200-week SMA
- Pct of all funds at 5-year highs and rising
- Net directional call-put at record highs
- Short squeeze underway as short float % has collapsed from 12.6% to 6.9% over the past 5 months
cc $OHI .. dips are gifts
Trend Edge Weekly Insights - 11.08.26
Our AI Market Consensus maintains a BULLISH + HOLD recommendation.
Reasoning as follows:
"A roughly 10% pullback is testing the market's (Trend Edge US Stock Universe Index) rising 40-week trend line on genuinely weak breadth, while fresh extreme fear and a favorable November-to-January seasonal window set up a dip-buy that still needs price confirmation."
Per the @stocktwits Sentiment Index, we are finally seeing some Fear in Retail traders. The first bout of real fear since March. This is a strong contrarian-bullish indicator.
Additionally, we are seeing backwardation in the VIX Term Structure (30d - 3mo). Spot VIX (30d) slipping back below the 3-month turns this contrarian-bullish, while renewed spiking argues for defense.
$TSLA I am feeling atypically optimistic for this earnings. Monthly volume has been drying up for over 1.5 years while the long-term 40-month SMA has been turning/catching up.
Additionally, TSLA has been showing significant RS to market over the past few months. And net direction call/put is at record highs. With a rise in pct of all funds in the most recent qtr. And there are statistically significant seasonal tailwinds for tesla this time of year.
I think this ER Will be catalyst to push shares through declining 40-week SMA (10-month SMA) resistance above, and reignite monthly volume
