Troy Torrence

Nobody is sharper than the bookies: SeahawksML(2u)✅ Seahawks-2.5(1u)✅ Seahawks+Vikes(1u)✅ Chiefs TT un20.5(1u)✅ RR:Seahawks+Lions+Rams(2.3u)✅ NFL Wk 7=+16.1u NFL YTD=+52.3u When you make a bet, you should ask yourself; What do the bookies want me to do in this spot?

NFL 2026: WHO IS WINNING IN THE TRENCHES (RUN GAME ONLY) This is a graphic I built to understand the most influential aspect of football; That is who is winning in the trenches in the run game. The metrics incorporated into the analysis: - Run block win rate - Run stop win rate - PFF RBLK grade - Yards before contact per carry (O & D) (Adjusted for opponent) Key Takeaways: - The Bills, Rams, & Steelers have been clearly the best trench performers in the run game and by a wide margin. - It's shocking to see the Bills grade out above the mason dixon on the defensive side of the ball. - The Packers O-Line is the worst in the NFL, especially when we include the pass blocking side of the equation. - The Broncos line has been solid, despite their slow start to the season offensively. They are currently 26th in Yards Per Carry. (Run game under-valued) - Seeing the Texans in that bottom left quadrant is mind blowing. That once vaunted defense is in complete shambles. - The Ravens rushing offense is likely over valued. They are top 10 in yards per carry, but the O-Line has actually been a net negative. - The more I study the underlying numbers, the more I realize the Bengals should be considered in super bowl conversations. Unfortunately, coaching is still weighing them down in my power rankings.

NFL 2026 - "EPA & SUCCESS RATES SINCE WEEK 3" Pictured below is a graphic that depicts offensive EPA & success rates over the past 5 weeks. When I handicap games, I look at underlying numbers through 3 lenses. - Season long - Last 5 weeks (Recent form) - Custom filters vs. corollary opponents This is an important staple of my analysis each week to determine who may likely be over or under valued. The tricky part which requires more time? Adjusting for strength of schedule & changes to roster. (Injuries) That's why it's important to hit the film room and watch the tape to get confirmation. Key Takeaways: - The Falcons are 20th in success rate on the season but 4th over the past 5 weeks. I think some of the season long metrics are still weighting them down in the market. - The Bills are 1st in sucess rate on the season, but 7th over the past 5 weeks. Contrary to the value we might find on the Falcons, the Bills might be a short term fade in the near future. - The 49ers & Lions have been consistent. They have maintained top 5 status throughout the entire season. - The Commanders numbers have crashed. That can be partly explained by injury, but there are some red flags even when Jayden Daniels has been under center. - The Browns are another team that sticks out. They are 27th and 24th in EPA & Success rates respectively on the season, but roughly league average over the past 5 weeks.

NFL WEEK 8 - 2026 It's early in the week, but it seems like every stone I turnover I am finding value. - 5 games handicapped - 8 total bets - 13 units in play I have two stlyes when it comes to the NFL: 1. Aggressive 2. Ultra-Aggressive Let's continue to win....

2026 NFL "Net Unit Trend": (YTD - Week 7) We broke out of some resistance and reached the next extension. Posting a +20% ROI on the season is likely unsustainable. (Target = 6-8% ROI) But I am fighting tooth and nail to make sure this trend continues its upwards trajectory.

It took 5 blood transfusions and 2 weeks in the NICU, but we finally got to bring our baby boy home this afternoon. Thanks for all the support, prayers, and love you guys sent our way the past few months… God is good!

Last week we cashed 4/6 multi-unit bets which led us to a profitable week. The opportunity wasn't quite as great this week with only 4 spots commanding a heavier sizing. (Incl. the Bears) But there are 2 sides remaining on the Week 7 slate where we CLEARLY have a massive edge.

90% of my time handicapping gets allocated to the NFL. However, we have been streaking.... Padding the bankroll before Sunday? Nothing better.

NFL WEEK 7 (VIKINGS vs. COLTS) 🚨**Important: Read until the end**🚨 The most influential variable in this game is projecting how Daniel Jones will play against the Flores Blitz. Since his injuries last season, we've seen a descent in all the numbers we would see in a less mobile QB. (P2S%, Under center, Read option usage, scramble rate, etc) Daniel Jones has only faced 1 team that blitzed him more than 35% of dropbacks --> Commanders Jones posted a 53 passer rating, 4.2 YPA, 0TD:1INT Flip the equation and I ask myself; Can I trust Kyler Murray to cover the number? Numerically, I could easily make the case. Unfortunately, the new "Call of Duty" just dropped and I've heard he's been bingeing. @Vikings @Colts

For the stand alone videos we advance to 17-1 BEARS ML (1u)✅ BEARS -3 (1u)✅ But for those of you in discord/dubclub? We continued adding to our positions: BEARS 1H ML (1u)✅ BEARS ML (1u)✅ BEARS ML Parlay (2u)✅✅ The grind continues to pay..... dubclub.win/TroyTorrence11/

Going live shortly to start breaking this game down even further. Let me know what your positions are in the chat. New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears PreGame Show | NFL Football Week 7... youtube.com/live/xmJYIRRaDgY… via @YouTube

Truly shocking market in Thursday Night Football…. I guess people are really buying into the “Primetime Dog” narrative.

Patriots vs Bears Prediction: Best Bet for NFL Week 7 youtu.be/YjU70559RjM?is=xeFM… via @YouTube

BEARS vs. PATRIOTS: (Thursday Night Football) 9 videos breaking down individual games this season; 15-1-2 record. This game in particular is a fascinating handicap. Does the “Dog on Primetime” trend continue? youtu.be/YjU70559RjM?is=c_m7…

NFL YTD & WEEK 7: Despite all the hurdles in my personal life, my week 7 card is finally starting to come together. We've had a beautiful season through 6 weeks. +36.18u (+16.75% ROI) I've moved on 6 games thus far, with 2 more spots pending market confirmation.

Commanders1H+5.5 (1u)✖️ CommandersFG+7.5(2u)✅ CommandersLIVE+18.5(2u)✅ Commanders49ERS TT un30.5(1u)✅ Nobody is sharper than the bookies.... 49ers open -8 with 70%+ of bets and cash. Bookies - "Oh you like that -8, heres a -7.5." The public continues to pile in on San Fran. Bookies - "Fk it, take off the hook, heres a -7 for everyone!" That's why I built the Market Efficiency Database, to quantify this market environment.

I’ll be going live at to breakdown this Monday Night Football game @PubSportsRadio in 10-15 minutes. Another day —> more opportunity. I hope to see you chat! Washington Commanders vs San Francisco 49ers PreGame Show | NFL Footbal... youtube.com/live/k-6m-po1eJQ… via @YouTube

49ERS vs. COMMANDERS: 2 questions: How can you back the Commanders with confidence after what we seen from their defense? How can you back the 5-0 49ers knowing they’re at the top of their market off a marquee win? Of course I’ve taken a position, it’s Monday night….

49ERS vs. COMMANDERS: (Monday Night Football) What’s the move tonight? Is it as easy as backing the very public 5-0 49ers?