Someone else’s good news is not a report card on your life. A friend gets promoted. A business takes off. Someone buys the house. Celebrate it. You’ll get to enjoy a lot more wins when they don’t all have to be yours.

No one tells you how hard it is to rewire your brain to allow amazing things to happen after experiencing so much trauma or pain. Blessings exist... Let it happen.

I think one of the biggest problems in Crypto X is that people desperately want to believe someone knows exactly what’s going to happen next. Someone sent me a Bitcoin video today. I almost never watch these, but something caught my attention. The guy has roughly the same number of YouTube subscribers as me, yet his videos get 10 to 20 times the views. More power to him. I was genuinely curious, so I watched. His primary Bitcoin forecast? $80K → $60K → $110K → $40K. Yep. He’s mapped out the next year or so, apparently. Now, here’s what made it interesting. This same analyst had previously insisted Bitcoin was headed straight to $40K when it was near $60K. Wrong. Then insisted Bitcoin couldn’t break $82K and would head lower. Wrong again. And now he’s explaining this new roadmap with the same incredible confidence. Look, being wrong is part of trading. I’m wrong plenty. That’s not my criticism. It’s the certainty. Think about it. We’re around $80K, and before Bitcoin can even reach $60K, it has to lose several important levels where buyers may respond. Then we’re supposed to know it will reverse, climb nearly 100%, break through multiple major resistance areas, and collapse another 60%? Maybe it happens. Maybe it doesn’t. But even if that exact sequence eventually played out, what did it teach you about trading? Where’s the directional bias for TODAY? Where are the levels worth acting on? What reaction would justify an entry? Where are you wrong? I think this is one of the biggest problems with financial social media. People are drawn to the person who sounds like he knows, while some genuinely outstanding traders with repeatable processes get a fraction of the attention. And I feel for the people trying to learn. They’re surrounded by confidence, predictions and impressive-sounding narratives, but very little instruction on how to actually make decisions. There’s no knowing, only edge. The sooner you get comfortable saying “I don’t know,” the sooner you can stop trying to predict every move and start learning how to trade the opportunities that actually develop. Certainty sells. Edge pays.

One of the earliest warnings that Bitcoin’s top was forming wasn’t on the Bitcoin chart. It was on BTC/SPX The ratio peaked last summer and began making lower highs while Bitcoin was still near its highs. If you only watched BTCUSD, the shift was easy to miss. Against the S&P, Bitcoin had already started losing the competition for capital. And at the bare minimum, Bitcoin has to outperform the S&P. You get 500 companies, deep liquidity, and far less volatility. If Bitcoin can’t beat that benchmark, why take the extra risk? That’s a big reason I had very little interest in being structurally long Bitcoin through this decline. Today gets my attention because Bitcoin is holding up while stocks are getting hit and BTC/SPX is pushing higher. But one day doesn’t change a year-long trend. Coming out of the last bear market, this ratio began building higher lows before Bitcoin became the better trade. That’s what I want to see now... higher lows, higher highs, and actual structure. The S&P doesn’t have to crash. Bitcoin just has to become the better trade again.

GOOD MORNING BULLS. Say it back if you know your best days in this market are still ahead of you. We’re all gonna make it.

I love this area for spot Bitcoin buys. Not because the chart looks good. It doesn’t. But some of the best buying opportunities I’ve had over the years looked pretty ugly at the time. Think about what’s happening here. Bears have spent roughly 35 days grinding BTC from $86.2K down to $79.7K. They’ve made progress, sure, but they haven’t taken nearly as much ground as you might expect. Meanwhile, daily momentum has undergone a substantial reset without price suffering a comparable collapse. That’s the kind of underlying strength I pay attention to. Could we see $74K to $76K? Absolutely. I’d welcome another opportunity there. But there’s a reason I like a spot ladder here rather than waiting for the perfect entry. Sometimes you get that deeper discount. Sometimes the market takes off and never gives you the chance. Perps are a different game. There, I want a specific reaction, a pullback to enter, and a clear place to be wrong. Precision matters when leverage is involved. For longer-term spot accumulation, I’m much more interested in building a position at attractive prices and being comfortable adding lower if the opportunity comes. I’d rather start buying at wholesale prices and risk getting another discount than wait for everything to look beautiful and end up paying retail.

I may be out of the top 10 now, but I’m still accumulating, still believing, and never selling!

Never tell anyone what you are doing untill it is done.

Bitcoin didn’t start its recovery when you finally turned bullish. We went from roughly $58K to $87K, then back toward $80K. That’s a 50% advance followed by an 8% pullback. That doesn’t guarantee another leg higher. But it does put the pullback in perspective. If you stayed bearish through most of the advance and only became bullish above $82K, I understand why $80K feels uncomfortable. Your entry can be in trouble without the entire recovery being in trouble. Waiting for confirmation is fine. But if your outlook is measured in months, why is every trip across the same level rewriting it? Yes, losing $82K–$82.5K matters. That was topside support. I’d rather see buyers reclaim it. But there’s an entire structure underneath it, not an empty chart. Here’s what I’m watching… Can sellers keep what they’ve taken? Breaking support, rejecting the recovery and continuing lower is very different from breaking it and promptly giving it back. How do buyers respond underneath? There are other areas where a bullish setup could develop. I need a reaction and structure, not just a cheaper price. How much of the recovery is actually being undone? A pullback into support is one thing. Settling back into old congestion and repeatedly failing to recover is another. That would warrant a different assessment. On this structure, my swing bias remains bullish. That doesn’t mean every support must hold or my next long has to win. I can stop out of a long and still be interested in the next setup. Taking that loss and assessing a new trade is not the same as dragging my stop lower. We’re trying to buy wholesale and sell at a premium. That gets difficult when we only trust a market after it rallies and abandon the idea whenever it pulls back. Changing your mind is necessary. I do it too. But I want the change tied to evidence I can explain, not discomfort with the latest candle. What would actually invalidate your outlook, and had you decided that before the pullback started?

The formula for wealth: Buy from pessimists. Sell to optimists. Repeat until everyone thinks you’re lucky.

You’re allowed to enjoy something you’ll never be great at. Play guitar badly. Go for a run without checking your pace. Make something nobody will ever buy. You don’t owe the world a measurable result from everything you do. Don’t turn every source of joy into another performance review.

Bitcoin is STILL GREEN. Many people flip bullish → bearish → bullish every time the price crosses the range. We’re doing something simpler, and it has been smooth sailing thus far: • Higher-timeframe structure remains bullish • True Bias remains green • Momentum is resetting • I’m still buying value until it bites me • Bears still need to actually gain ground If bulls reclaim the key daily level, the door opens toward $98K+. If structure materially fails, I’ll change with it. Nobody knows what happens next. The goal is to have an EDGE in the guess. New True Bias Market Update 👇 youtu.be/gpIUrTECTY4

Early in my trading career, I turned my bankroll into 125x and honestly thought I had the game figured out. Then I lost everything. The profits. The original bankroll. The confidence. The illusion that I was special. At the time it felt like the end of my trading story. It wasn’t. That is where the real story began. Never quit. If I can do it, you can do it.

Good morning to everyone who still recognizes the miracle. We’re on a spinning rock flying around the sun at about 67,000 mph, and here we are trading magic internet money and trying to build a better life. Man, this whole thing is pretty amazing when you stop and think about it. 😂 Work hard and take your shot. Look after your people. Just don’t forget to have some fun along the way, even when things don’t go exactly how you planned. We’re flying through space trading Bitcoin. Might as well have an amazing day.

The best levels on a chart are usually the places where somebody is about to run out of choices. A trapped short has to buy. A trapped long has to sell. Somebody is defending. Somebody is wrong. Somebody eventually has to cover or chase. That’s why the level matters. Stop asking only where price might react. Ask who gets forced to act there.

Working with people smarter than you is a blessing, not a threat.

Protect a few hours a day when you’re not available to the whole world. Use that time to get better at what you do and build something you actually care about. You don’t have to answer every message before you’re allowed to invest in yourself. A lot of what gets called “luck” later comes from the hours you stopped giving away.

You can be completely right about direction and still lose money. That’s one of trading’s more expensive lessons. Too much size can force you out before the move. A late entry can leave too little reward for the risk. Adding because you “know” you’re right can turn a manageable loss into serious damage. Price eventually reaching your target doesn’t mean you traded it well. Before asking how much you could make if you’re right, ask what happens to your account while you wait. A good trade has to account for the journey, not just the destination.

Someone wise once told me… If you get on the wrong train, get off at the first stop. The longer you stay on, the more expensive the ride back gets. They were not talking about trains.