Underdog Sports Analytics

12/28/25 NBA Recap 🏀: (3-0) 💰🔥 Thats a sweep! 🧹 Free VIP to someone who likes ❤️ and reposts! LeBron James (Lakers) O 22.5 points ✅ James Harden (Clippers) U 7.5 assists ✅ (Discord) Quentin Grimes (76ers) U 3.5 assists ✅ (Discord) Research: @propsmadness Link for 25% off: propsmadness.com/?ref=montgo… #NBA #GamblingX #sportcoin

Jamal Murray (Nuggets) under 23.5 points (-115 Fanatics) - hit in 3/3 against top 20 teams in pick and roll ball handler defense - averaging 13 points in that span - murray and the nuggets travel to mexico city for a matchup against the indiana pacers. its cool to see teams play in different arenas and today im going to fade murray - the pacers love to blitz on the pick and roll and often try to get the ball handler to cough it up. they are ranked 3rd in pick and roll ball handler defense & 1st in pull up defense - its going to be tough for murray who scores 26% of his points off of the pick and roll & 41% of his points come from pull up jumpers. the pacers have held other pull up jump shooters under their points line such as CJ McCollum (13 points) & bennedict mathurin (11 points) - the extra traveling and early afternoon game might also throw off murrays rhythm. i think the pacers will continue to make life tough on ball dominant guards 📊@propsmadness #NBA #GamblingX

Brandon Miller under 21.5 points ✅ Got injured so i hope hes okay 🙏 Research: @propsmadness Link for 25% off: propsmadness.com/?ref=montgo… #NBA #GamblingX

Brandon Miller (Hornets) under 21.5 points (-102 FanDuel) - hit in 2/2 with coby white - averaging 13.5 points in that span - miller is the #1 option on the hornets but with coby white back in the mix hes had to play off ball more. now hes up against the celtics who will absolutely have a game plan for him because joe mazulla is a mad man - miller is a three level scorer but is ball dominant. he likes to get downhill off the pick and roll or in transition but the celtics are elite at defending both. they are ranked 10th in pick and roll ball handler defense & 3rd in transition defense - i think given his slightly lower usage and the celtics defense during an NBA cup game, miller is in a tough scoring spot. he could still shot chuck but i dont think his efficiency will be there 📊@propsmadness #NBA #GamblingX

Derrick Henry under 69.5 rushing yards ✅ The jaguars blew the ravens out! Not enough offense for king henry! Research: @propsmadness Link for 25% off: propsmadness.com/?ref=montgo… #NBA #GamblingX

Tristan Da Silva over 11.5 points ✅ Silva has the ultimate green light! He easily cleared this line! Research: @propsmadness Link for 25% off: propsmadness.com/?ref=montgo… #NBA #GamblingX

Derrick Henry (Ravens) under 69.5 rushing yards (-113 FanDuel) - hit in 4/4 losses - averaging 56 rushing yards in that span - the situation in baltimore looks bad. they just traded for jacoby brissett from the cardinals but will have to start joe fagnano for thursday night football against the jaguars - speaking of the jaguars, they are ranked 1st in rushing yards allowed. they are excellent at the line of scrimmage and have held other star running backs under this line such as taylor (23 yards), brown (10 yards), & judkins (33 yards) - the ravens are 9.5 point underdogs so a loss feels pretty likely here. their defense is mediocre and as of right now their offense is struggling to gain yards both through the air and on the ground - i think this one could get ugly and if the ravens do fall behind there wont be as many carries for king henry 📊@propsmadness #NFL #GamblingX

Tristan da Silva (Magic) over 11.5 points (-115 BetRivers) - hit in 4/7 - averaging 14.1 points in that span - i think da silva is in a really good spot here. the magic are down banchero & suggs which means da silva should see 30+ minutes today in a relatively competitive game - hes up against the suns who currently profile as the worst defense in the league. they are ranked 30th in defensive rating, 27th in spot up defense, & 29th in above the break defense - da silva is taking nearly all of his shots via the catch and shoot and should have good volume today after going 4/14 from the field last game - anthony black will step into the ball handler role alongside franz wagner. both of those guys are good passers and should be able to find bane/da silva for open looks - this one has a 1.5 point spread so im hoping for a competitive game where da silva can play close out minutes 📊@propsmadness #NBA #GamblingX

November 4th NBA Card 🏀: LaMelo Ball (Timberwolves) U 6.5 assists Ty Jerome (Grizzlies) U 22.5 points PJ Washington (Mavericks) U 1.5 threes Jeremiah Fears (Pelicans) U 3.5 assists Matisse Thybulle (Lakers) U 2.5 rebounds Research: @propsmadness Link for 25% off: propsmadness.com/?ref=montgo… #NBA #GamblingX

Ty Jerome (Grizzlies) under 22.5 points (-110 DraftKings) - hit in 2/6 - averaging 28.2 points in that span - ty jerome is having a wild start to the season. hes already have 3 games of 30+ points including 2 40+ point games but today i think he will struggle against an aggressive pacers defense - the pacers are ranked 1st in pick and roll ball handler defense which is how jerome scores 49% of his points. they are also ranked 1st in pull up defense which is the majority of jeromes shot diet - his primary defender will likely be andrew nembhard who is an elite perimeter defender. hes had to guard guys like SGA and is quick to navigate screens and generate deflections. i think he can get jerome out of his rhythm and keep him under this line 📊@propsmadness #NBA #GamblingX

Jalen Brunson under 23.5 points ✅ Low scoring game in the battle for new york! Nice cash for the discord! Research: @propsmadness Link for 25% off: propsmadness.com/?ref=montgo… #NBA #GamblingX

Jalen Green (Suns) under 15.5 points (-114 FanDuel) - hit in 3/4 - averaging 11 points in that span - green has struggled so far this season. his minutes as well as his shot volume are lower than last season and hes struggled to play within the suns offensive sets - he gets a tough scoring matchup against the warriors who are ranked 4th in pick and roll ball handler defense & 5th in above the break defense - green has scored a whopping 75% of his points off the pick and roll which will be tough against the warriors who like to blitz and switch often. they have held other good guards under their points line such as garland (15 points), ball (8 points), & murray (19 points) - green is also a defensive liability which is causing him to lose minutes to guys like collin gillespie. theres a good chance he sees less than 30 minutes today and i want to take advantage of his slump 📊@propsmadness #NBA #GamblingX

Halloween NBA Card 🏀: Damian Lillard O 3.5 threes Rudy Gobert U 8.5 points Jamie Jaquez Jr. O 15.5 points Research: @propsmadness Link for 25% off: propsmadness.com/?ref=montgo… #NBA #GamblingX

Rudy Gobert (Timberwolves) under 8.5 points (+102 FanDuel) - hit in 4/6 - averaging 7 points in that span - gobert looks absolutely sorry so far this season. i thought at some point hed turn it around but i got burned and have learned my lesson. we are only fading him from now on - hes up against the spurs who are an excellent paint defense thanks to wemby. they are ranked 7th in points in the paint allowed, 23rd in pace, & 8th in defensive rating - gobert scores 86% of his points in the restricted area where the spurs are ranked 6th in defending. gobert is currently shooting 41.2% from the field which is insane since he only shoots 5 feet from the basket - the timberwolves are on a back to back and are 11.5 point underdogs so this one could get ugly fast. i'll take the blowout angle as well here so give me the under 📊@propsmadness #NBA #GamblingX

Day’Ron Sharpe under 8.5 points ✅ Not even close! Great read and cash from sharpe! Research: @propsmadness Link for 25% off: propsmadness.com/?ref=montgo… #NBA #GamblingX

LaMelo Ball under 7.5 assists ✅ Super sweaty but cash it! Lamelo finishes with 7 exactly! Research: @propsmadness Link for 25% off: propsmadness.com/?ref=montgo… #NBA #GamblingX

Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) over 12.5 rebounds (+101 DraftKings) - hit in 2/4 - averaging 10.5 rebounds on 22.3 chances in that span - jokic should see some positive regression in the rebounding department soon. hes converting less than 50% of his rebound chances which is well below is 60% average - he gets a great rebounding matchup against the phoenix suns who are extremely thin at the center position currently and are ranked 28th in rebounds allowed & 29th in rebounds allowed to centers. hartenstein was able to pull down 13 boards including 6 offensive - the joker should be able to capitalize on his size today and clean the glass on both ends of the floor against an undersized suns team 📊@propsmadness #NBA #GamblingX

Domantas Sabonis (Kings) over 38.5 points + rebounds + assists (-125 MGM) - hit in 3/4 - averaging 42.8 PRAs in that span - sabonis is the engine for this tanking kings team. hes one of the leagues best rebounders and is elite at running dribble hand offs & pick and rolls - hes up against the pelicans who are also tanking so im expecting a high scoring affair. the pelicans are ranked 21st in defensive rating, 8th in pace, & 27th in points in the paint allowed - they dont have anyone who is big and fast enough to keep up with sabonis. right now they are starting 100 year old deandre jordan at center and have 2 young guys to back him up - sabonis minutes are safe even in a blowout. hes averaging 36 minutes even though the kings are losing by an average margin of 17+ points. i think the big man will have a big game and we'll see who can tank harder 📊@propsmadness #NBA #GamblingX

Josh Jacobs (Packers) over 59.5 rushing yards (-111 DraftKings) - jacobs is back from the commissioners exempt list and had a modest statline in his first game back last week against the lions - the packers are still struggling to run the ball but its clear that the backfield is his alone. he had 11 carries compared to running mate loyd's 6 and that trend should continue against the panthers - the panthers have no idea how to stop the run game. they are ranked 32nd in rush yards allowed & 27th in rush attempts allowed. they have been gashed by a number of RBs this season including guys like irving (106 yards), gainwell (88 yards), judkins (70 yards), & swift (124 yards) - this line is a bit low for jacobs who has consistently clearing it last season. now that hes got his legs under him i think he will be much more effective this week against a horrible carolina run defense 📊@propsmadness #NFL #GamblingX

Rudy Gobert (Timberwolves) over 9.5 points (-136 BetRivers) - hit in 1/4 - averaging 8 points in that span - gobert has not been able to finish his layups so far this season but i think hes due for some positive regression and gets a good matchup against the undersized warriors - the warriors are ranked 24th in points in the paint allowed, 28th in defensive rating, & 24th in pace. they play slow which should help gobert and give him time to set up in the paint - hes getting a healthy amount of touches and getting to the free throw line often so even with his terrible free throw percentage it gives us a chance - lamelo will be running the show by himself today and we all know that he is a very gifted passer. i think he'll be able to find his teammates and pick up a good win 📊@propsmadness #NBA #GamblingX