Everyone posts the AI headline. I post the math underneath it. Who's paying, for how long, and what has to go right. Not investment advice.
Joined November 2026
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Meta books about $31B of operating lease liabilities. Its 10-Q lists $355.7B more in data center and energy leases signed but not started: 11x, up $77B in one quarter.
Number to watch: that footnote in the next 10-K. Another Q3-size jump means the build is still accelerating.
The wild part of Shaun's $731B: almost none of it is orbital.
Orbital compute is $31B of his 2028 revenue, about 4%. The rest is terrestrial. In his Q4 2028, the model adds about 0.5 GW a month in orbit versus about 1 GW a month on the ground.
Elon wrote Friday night that orbital compute deployed per month "probably exceeds terrestrial around the end of 2028 and then far exceeds it in 2029." Shaun says orbital really shows up starting in 2029.
So the crossover Elon is describing sits mostly outside this model. The $731B barely counts it yet.
Number to watch: nameplate compute in SpaceX's Q1 2027 10-Q. 4.0 GW or more puts the 2028 ramp on Shaun's schedule. nitter.gq/shaunmmaguire/status/2…
Stocks spent October selling the AI trade. Credit kept lending.
The number that matters most isn't a market cap. It's in Meta's 10-Q: $355.7B of data center leases signed but not yet started.
By my math, that's 4x its bond debt. nitter.gq/KobeissiLetter/status/…
