Utku Kaya (@Utkurocks) header
Utku Kaya (@Utkurocks) profile picture

built @lustyfinance & @stellar_turkey amb. | 23’ machine

Joined January 2019
Photo by Utku Kaya (@Utkurocks)Photo by Utku Kaya (@Utkurocks)Photo by Utku Kaya (@Utkurocks)Photo by Utku Kaya (@Utkurocks)Photo by Utku Kaya (@Utkurocks)Photo by Utku Kaya (@Utkurocks)Photo by Utku Kaya (@Utkurocks)Photo by Utku Kaya (@Utkurocks)Photo by Utku Kaya (@Utkurocks)Photo by Utku Kaya (@Utkurocks)
asked our designer to make the pnl cards more engaging i think he understood the assignment ✨
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sorry but options are way more fun than perps
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Shh… Lethea is live 👻 Crosschain swaps in and out of Stellar mainnet from 14 chains with a single deposit. Flip on Confidential and the route never shows up on the explorer. lethea.xyz @NEARProtocol 🤝 @StellarOrg
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btw there are 8 of these hiding on Lethea. they might say shh. they're harmless, say hi back.
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Yesterday marked the best crypto event in Turkey. Hosted by @riseinweb3 and @BuildOnStellar at Feriye Palace, the night kicked off with a 36 hours hackathon and ended in an unforgettable celebration. Fueled by that energy, we are pushing to take @lustyfinance even further.
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tired of hitting claude design's weekly limit? built rockdesign so you don't have to. → runs in your terminal → uses your existing claude plan (no api needed) → unlimited designs → fully open source upload, configure, ship. that's it. repo in the reply 👇
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here you go ↓ github.com/utkurock/rockdesi… stars, feedback, prs all welcome some designs made with rockdesign ↓
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Utku Kaya retweeted
JUST IN: Bolt CEO Ryan Breslow fired the company’s entire HR team because they were “creating problems that didn’t exist.”
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Utku Kaya retweeted
it's only been one day since I shipped drand-relay and the @BuildOnStellar community already started building on top of it!🎉🎉
We didn’t make a regular coinflip on Blind. Instead, we experimented with Stellar’s newly released trustless randomness relay infrastructure built by @0xkaankacar in a different way. Users can open positions with: - Random token - Random side - Random leverage As a nod to randomness itself, the platform can also spin between: - 10 different themes - 4 different token charts - r:r vault Blind doesn’t require any wallet. The system automatically creates 2 wallets for you and instantly starts you with 10K XLM test tokens. If you want, you can also export the generated testnet wallets later. Everything stays local. Check the replies. (1/2)
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We didn’t make a regular coinflip on Blind. Instead, we experimented with Stellar’s newly released trustless randomness relay infrastructure built by @0xkaankacar in a different way. Users can open positions with: - Random token - Random side - Random leverage As a nod to randomness itself, the platform can also spin between: - 10 different themes - 4 different token charts - r:r vault Blind doesn’t require any wallet. The system automatically creates 2 wallets for you and instantly starts you with 10K XLM test tokens. If you want, you can also export the generated testnet wallets later. Everything stays local. Check the replies. (1/2)
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Try Now: 🔗 blind.utkukaya.co ____________ Drand Relay: 🔗 github.com/kaankacar/Drand-R… Blind: 🔗 github.com/utkurock/blind (2/2)
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Introducing wall402 — an open-source x402 paywall gateway on X Layer. AI agents and users pay per API call with zero-gas USDG. Get AI trading signals; token security scans, wallet intelligence reports and smart money alerts. All powered by real onchain data. Built with 7 Onchain OS & Uniswap skills. @XLayerOfficial #BuildX #XLayerHackathon
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THE $1,000,000 POLYMARKET STRATEGY Some time ago, I built "5rcks .fun" and shared it with you. The system allocates 5–10% of its bankroll per trade and splits positioning based on three analytical models: - BTC Technical Analysis - Orderbook Analysis - Odds Analysis Since the initial post, the simulation system went completely REKT once. It then restarted with $1,000 and, over time, delivered strong performance, eventually surpassing the $1M mark. Of course, this is purely a simulation. Achieving the same level of profitability in real market conditions would have been impossible. The reasons are clear: Insufficient liquidity, Volatile odds and Slippage at larger position sizes. However, if the system is applied using smaller, controlled position sizes, the outlook becomes more realistic. Example scenario: - 56% win rate - 1,280 total predictions - $80–$100 per trade Results: - 711 winning predictions × $180 payout (purchased at $90 with ~50% implied odds) - 569 losing predictions × $90 loss Total outcome: - $127,980 gross revenue - $76,770 net profit Because the system sizes trades proportionally to bankroll, both gains and risks compound as capital grows. This creates the potential for larger profits; but also significantly larger drawdowns. In short: If you have a real edge on Polymarket and apply it through a disciplined automated system, building a scalable model may be possible. This was purely an experimental automation test and does not guarantee profits.
There is a structural inefficiency in Polymarket 5-minute BTC markets. Most people try to predict price. Winners read the odds. @Polymarket resolves markets using @chainlink oracle data. We track live price from Binance. Here is the issue: Chainlink public feed is delayed. In some 5-minute windows, there can be a $200–300 gap between Binance price action and the resolve price. So even if you predict direction correctly, you can still lose. The real edge isn’t price direction. It’s detecting where the odds are mispriced. That’s why I built a two-layer system: I. Ensemble Signal Engine – 40% Binance technicals (RSI, EMA 9/21, VWAP, momentum) – 35% Polymarket orderbook (depth, spread, whale walls) – 25% Mispricing detection No trade if edge <5%. Position sizing via Kelly. II. Last 30-second strategy If one side hits 90%+ probability: $0.90 → $1.00 resolve ≈ 11% trade. Small. Repeatable. Currently running in simulation mode: $1,000 virtual capital, real market resolution. You can track strategy performance live. See win rate, PnL, Sharpe, equity curve. Build and backtest your own strategy. 5rcks . fun Not financial advice. But data changes how you see markets.
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You can track all the data in real time. 5rcks.fun/dashboard
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Our Avax Build Games journey has officially begun!🔺 We’re set to build and launch our 3D Shooter game from scratch in just 6 weeks. Follow our progress and every milestone of this exciting marathon over at @skydngame. 🤝@AvaLabs
Acceptance letters are rolling in. The Build Games are almost here. 🔺
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You can track real-time performance data at 5rcks.fun. On aggregate, the “Last Seconds” strategy has been the most consistent performer. 245 Wins / 10 Losses If we had direct access to @Polymarket live price feed for execution parity, the current 96% win rate could likely be closer to 99%. You can join the experiment by building your own strategies. 🔗 5rcks.fun/strategy3 Create custom bots, run backtests, and don’t forget to submit them to the leaderboard.
There is a structural inefficiency in Polymarket 5-minute BTC markets. Most people try to predict price. Winners read the odds. @Polymarket resolves markets using @chainlink oracle data. We track live price from Binance. Here is the issue: Chainlink public feed is delayed. In some 5-minute windows, there can be a $200–300 gap between Binance price action and the resolve price. So even if you predict direction correctly, you can still lose. The real edge isn’t price direction. It’s detecting where the odds are mispriced. That’s why I built a two-layer system: I. Ensemble Signal Engine – 40% Binance technicals (RSI, EMA 9/21, VWAP, momentum) – 35% Polymarket orderbook (depth, spread, whale walls) – 25% Mispricing detection No trade if edge <5%. Position sizing via Kelly. II. Last 30-second strategy If one side hits 90%+ probability: $0.90 → $1.00 resolve ≈ 11% trade. Small. Repeatable. Currently running in simulation mode: $1,000 virtual capital, real market resolution. You can track strategy performance live. See win rate, PnL, Sharpe, equity curve. Build and backtest your own strategy. 5rcks . fun Not financial advice. But data changes how you see markets.
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There is a structural inefficiency in Polymarket 5-minute BTC markets. Most people try to predict price. Winners read the odds. @Polymarket resolves markets using @chainlink oracle data. We track live price from Binance. Here is the issue: Chainlink public feed is delayed. In some 5-minute windows, there can be a $200–300 gap between Binance price action and the resolve price. So even if you predict direction correctly, you can still lose. The real edge isn’t price direction. It’s detecting where the odds are mispriced. That’s why I built a two-layer system: I. Ensemble Signal Engine – 40% Binance technicals (RSI, EMA 9/21, VWAP, momentum) – 35% Polymarket orderbook (depth, spread, whale walls) – 25% Mispricing detection No trade if edge <5%. Position sizing via Kelly. II. Last 30-second strategy If one side hits 90%+ probability: $0.90 → $1.00 resolve ≈ 11% trade. Small. Repeatable. Currently running in simulation mode: $1,000 virtual capital, real market resolution. You can track strategy performance live. See win rate, PnL, Sharpe, equity curve. Build and backtest your own strategy. 5rcks . fun Not financial advice. But data changes how you see markets.
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One of the biggest reasons mentioned above is that this market needs to be approached probabilistically rather than purely through technical analysis. Polymarket and Chainlink data often do not align. data.chain.link/streams/btc-…
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Utku Kaya retweeted
I’m going to build a Polymarket bot makes me infinite money based on backtested orderbook data
Bitcoin up or down? 5 minute up/down crypto polymarkets are now live. Powered & secured by Chainlink 🤝
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